Tips

The tour takes a break after this week's event, with a week off before resuming in Singapore, the five tournament stint of the 'Asian Swing'. Before that, though, we move slightly inland and northwards to Glendower Golf Club for the third running of the Jonsson Workwear Open.

To frustrate punters, the event takes place at the third different course in as many years, though the Edenvale track has a much-lauded history, having held a version of the South African Open a total of eight times, the most relevant being the five years between 2013 and 2018. We do have a couple more recent course events to go on, the 2020 Africa Tour Championship and 2023 Fortress Invitational, both looking significant despite the apparent rise in class.

Despite the last six SA Opens being won by home players, Glendower struggled to offer the Springboks a trophy in that handful of events, giving up Brandon Stone in 2016 but also seeing five runner-up finishes that include the names Branden Grace, Charl Schwartzel and Christiaan Bezhidenhout. All those familiar names were joined by JBE Kruger and Hennie Otto as those beaten by (sorry, guys) inferior 'away' players, whilst Rory McIlroy (then world number two) was beaten in a play-off by Graeme Storm, then 249 places below him on the ranking tables.

The course stats read as being circa 7500-yards, but does not play to anything like that length, playing at altitude and with enough tree-lined fairways, bunkers and water hazards to make this more than a hit-it-and-rip-it course. To that end, an all-round game is required, being accurate enough off the tee to allow clear shots to tough greens. The KLM, French Open, Crans and the like would seem to be the ideal pointers for European players, but other venues crop up frequently in past winners. 

Mortum Oren Madsen (2013), Andy Sullivan (2015) and Brandon Stone (2016) all possess quality form at the Dubai Desert Classic, whilst their finishes in Portugal also bring in the 2017 champion Storm. Of significant note must be the Alfred Dunhill Championship held at Leopard Creek, a tournament that has seen Bez, Grace and Schwartzel top the board, the latter an incredible four times.   

Away from there, it's too much of a mix to be entirely confident about the 'type' required - perhaps it will be more about being confident with the tee-to-green game. Wide and rash will not do the job here.

Madsen was the last SA Open winner when played in November, the event shifting to early season in 2015. He came in after a best recent effort of 12th at the Dunhill Links (making perfect sense on overall correlative form), and whilst the following champions faced the event as their first of the year, they all had a semblance of form coming in.

Sulli finished 2014 with a top five at the Desert Classic, Stone with a win in Cape Town and top-20 at the Alfred Dunhill, and Storm just outside the top-20 in Portugal before a top five at Leopard Creek. 2018 winner Paisley might seem to mess that up a bit, but did bring in a top-12 finish in Portugal as his best of a recent seven events.

As always, there is something in the air that prompts regular form in South Africa. Madsun arrived in the country for the eighth time, his first few outings offering up a pair of top-10 finishes alongside a top-20, Sulli with a host of top finishes in 13 previous starts including three top-5s, Stone, as befits his homeland, had plenty of form including a win at Leopard Creek, whilst Storm brought in similar figures to his compatriot, with four top-10 finishes and a 15th place. Again, Paisley is the outlier, but following his sole success on tour, finished 3rd, 5th, 18th and 24th at various tracks.

I'm loath to put too much into lower class form, but the 2020 Tour Championship was won by recent Kenya champ, Daniel Van Tonder, who then finished in 12th place behind last week's unfortunate play-off loser, when Williams gagged up by six shots here in October. 

Once again, Thriston Lawrence looks the most solid at the top of the market, and he's again the easiest to back.

There is little to add to last week's preview and, after another solid week when a never-nearer 10th, this four-time winner has to go close on a track that he finished 15th in four years ago. 

Now fully established as one of the better DPWT players, his wins at Blair Atholl and Joburg show he's capable on all types of track, with top-10s at Crans, Valderrama and Kenya demonstrating his ability to control his ball on the tightest of courses. 

After a quiet spell, an improving run of 10/19/49 suggests he is nearly ready to roll again.

In terms of winning upside, the 27-year-old easily outpoints his fellow favourites, while the likes of Antione Rozner and Joost Luiten have plenty of evidence behind them, this is their first look here. That may not be an issue for such experienced players, but the Dutch man has just lost his mojo for the moment, and Rozner is just too short at 28s.

The improving Ryan Van Valzen is sure to leave last week's 44th place finish behind, but he'll want a track more suited to his driving, so to back up the fav, two more home players with conditions to suit.

Danie, could be Daniel this week, Van Tonder was one of the stars of the 'lockdown era', bagging four of his seven home wins in a stunning few weeks between August and October 2020, his last win being the South African Open at Gary Player, host of the Nedbank and a course that saw Bezhuidenhout win 11 months later.

That itself makes him one of the more interesting players around this potential hazard of a course and, when combined with his sole DPWT victory at Karen GC in Kenya, gives enough to be backed at a price bigger than the likes of hard-to-win-with Gavin Green and Marcus Armitage.

His course win, by three shots over much of this field, was backed up by a solid effort here three years later, lying 8th at halfway before a third round 77 knocked him outside the top-20 going into payday. That bad day was soon forgotten and a final round 68 was enough to see him rise to 12th, proving he could last the 72 holes around Glendower.

Three recent events have seen the 32-year-old finish 10th at the Di-Data, 27th at a minor home event, and last week's top-20 at the SDC, two of those events not suiting his accuracy-over-power game. Once again, he showed resilience throughout, losing a handy pitch at Fancourt with two poor rounds (3rd to 57th place) before rallying into a place on the front page, whilst at St. Francis he improved from 11th after day one through to a never-nearer 20th. 

One more home player, and one that fits the vast majority of the important stuff.  

Thomas Aiken may be 40-years of age, but he's at last playing some of the golf that resulted in 11 professional wins including his 2014 Africa Open, previously won by the names Ossthuizen, Schwartzel and Goosen.

Out of form and suffering with injury, Aiken is finally repaying the patience, leading the driving accuracy figures at three of his last eight completed starts and landing in the top-10 for greens-in-reg in four events over the same period.

The selection has been catching the eye for much of the past six months, highlighted by an excellent effort last week on the Links, recording top-20 stats in each category and leading the field for greens. His eventual 16th place finish would  have been his second successive top-10 at the course bar a final round double-bogey, little to worry about now he's a bigger price than when well-backed seven days ago.

Aiken has a pair of top-five finishes here and backs those up with nine out of 10 cuts in Portugal, recording finishes of 12/23/25/27/27. Step it up  a notch and he's five from seven cuts at the Emirates, finishing 7th in 2011 and 9th in 2015. 

He is playing some of the best tee-to-green stuff of his life, is now fully fit, repeats form at tracks and yet is backable at the same price as many that want a bigger, wider test than is offered this week.

Given they have been frequently turned over in the past, we need to have someone born away from 'home'.

A handful of players fit the correlative courses, but none more so than the ever-frustrating Adri Arnaus. 

Since being at this level, the 29-year-old has had just one win but eight top-three finishes and 15 further top-10s, giving many of his loyal backers palpitations down the stretch.

However, past finishes include some of the best fits we have, including two from two in the Portugal Masters (top-20 at halfway in 2019, second place at halfway in 2021) and four from six at the Dubai Desert Classic (3/9/13/29). In South Africa, the selection has a play-off loss at Pecanwood, a pair of top-10 finishes at Leopard Creek and a flying runner-up at the 2023 SDC. 

2023 hasn't been kind at all but after three missed cuts he found something when returned to St. Francis Links, finishing 20th last weekend via a best-of-third-round 66 that golf magazine Tengolf described as "simply sublime."

Okay, we are talking one very good round amongst several average ones, but something is a bonus to a player that has top finishes in Kenya, Valderrama and Crans as well as having honed his early career in Texas and the Alps Tour.

Advised at 100/1 on Twitter, I could happily take down to 66/1 with the very best place terms in the village.