1-4; +3.50pts
Thriston Lawrence 1 point each-way 18/1 (Skybet 1/5 6 places) 10th
Brandon Stone 0.50 points each-way 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 6 places) mc
Ugo Coussaud 0.50 points each-way 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 6 places) 24th
David Ravetto 0.50 points each-way 90/1 (Hills 1/5 6 places) 3rd
Ross Fisher 1.0 point Top-20 finish 9/2 (General) mc
Nacho Elvira gave us a big late run last weekend, birdies at each of the final two holes meaning that at least he put some pressure on eventual winner Darius Van Driel.
It wasn't to be, but his place meant no real harm on the week and did, at least, confirm the notion that Spaniards thrive in Kenya. In attempting to follow compatriot Jorge Campillo to the crown, the selection, brother Manuel, and Adrian Otaegui (record winner at Valderrama two years ago) all finished inside the top six - a definite pointer high up on the list when considering the event for future years.
The DPWT finishes off the 'International Swing' with a couple of weeks in South Africa, the first at St. Francis Links, used only once before on this tour (2023) but host to several home events over the years. There cannot be anything such as bad course form, but it would be logical to assume that rather than the low-standard 54-hole events, punters look at the last three South African PGA Championships.
The name suggests tumbling, rolling, sandy fairways, and that's what you get for the most part on this traditional par-72. However, to keep the cynic happy, there are a few water hazards and trees just to give them a chance to say it's not 'pure' links.
Taking a look at recent winners Dean Burmester (2021) and George Coetzee (2022), though, tells us enough to think we can concentrate on those with the classic formbook.
Burmy has a mountain of form at open style tracks, placing numerous times in Dubai, whilst his four co-sanctioned wins include the Tshwane and Joburg Opens, both events won by links gurus Charles Schwartzel and by Coetzee. Indeed, of big George's five DPWT/Sunshine victories, three are taken up by these two tournaments, one in Mauritius (play-off win over confirmed links player Thorbjorn Olesen) and the other at the Portugal Masters, an event he thrives at and a regular link when discussing events such as Himmerland, Dunhill Links and Qatar.
Last year's SA PGA saw a drop in class, but whilst Rupert Kaminski wouldn't be a household name, he did finish 8th behind Burmy here in 2021, and T13 when the same player was beaten into second place by Alexander Knappe at the 2022 Di-Data.
Oh, yeah, about that event at Fancourt, Coetzee beat Burmy to that title by a shot in 2016, before running-up in 2020.
Away from my love of correlative tracks, last year's SDC champion Matt Baldwin is another that thrives in expected conditions, bringing a host of form from the Scottish and Irish Opens, Qatar, Portugal and Joburg, with his best ever major finish (from a small sample of five events) being 23rd at Royal Lytham, admittedly one of the shorter courses on the Open register, but another links in style and not immediately coastal.
Points to note
Driving Distance - With the majority of the field able to find the wide fairways, length off the tee looks an advantage. The two previously-mentioned home stars can hit the ball a mile, whilst Kaminski ranked 15th for distance off the tee when winning his home PGA last year.
Approaches - Apart from Coetzee, every winner around the course ranked no worse than 14th for greens-in-regulation. At short of 7200-yards, with a handful of holes ready to be attacked, players cannot afford to give shots away to the field.
Scrambling - Avoiding unnecessary dropped shots will be key this week. Should players not find the greens, getting it up-and-down will be a priority.
South African form - Matt Baldwin was a rare 'away' win, but he came here after a huge experience of the country's conditions. The 37-year-old had played in South Africa 40 times before his victory, recording three top-10 finishes and six further top-25's. Furthermore, he has gone 15/26/32 in his three outings since his maiden win.
Current form - Although hard to gauge the overall quality of Sunshine Tour fields, both Burmy and Coetzee had a couple of top-10 finishes leading up to their wins, whilst Kaminski came to St. Francis with immediate form of T28/T12/T6.
Selections
With many of the field hard to win with, it makes sense to side with someone one from the top. Of those at 30/1 and under, Tom McKibbin and Thriston Lawrence make most appeal, the vote going to the latter due to his superior win record at the moment.
Whilst the young Irishman has the ultimate game for this course, 27 year-old Lawrence has four wins in his bag, two of those victories being the Joburg Open and the ridiculously long SA Open at Blair Atholl, an event won a year later by Burmester from a set of heavy hitters.
The selection's last victory, in June 2023, came at an event dominated by links specialists over the years, the names Bjorn, Els, Montgomerie, Willett, Stenson and even Hao Tong Li giving further evidence of Lawrence's ability in these conditions.
20th at a minor event here in 2018, he understandably improved that showing to lie in fifth place after three rounds of last year's championship, eventually finishing 14th after a tough final day. He's much better than that when right and recent figures suggest he might be on his way back to top form.
After a flying runner-up at Dubai Creek, the selection missed a beat at the Dubai Desert Classic and at Ras, before a top-50 at Qatar and last week's top-20 in Kenya. On each occasion, he ranked top-10 off the tee and whilst a little way off with his irons, this course will suit his sometime wayward driving far better than Muthaiga, allowing him to play off the short stuff. If he can turn it on again now back home, I'd expect this week to be a catalyst for an improved spell, similar to that in 2023, when coming here off three missed cuts in five starts.
I'll travel further down for the next couple of selections, with the group at around 60/1 catching the eye.
Nobody will say Brandon Stone is predictable, but the Oman runner-up (to last weekend's Mexico second place Sami Valimaki) has shown enough in spurts to make him very interesting in this grade and around the links.
Past wins at his home open at Glendower read well, defeating Christiaan Bezhuidenhout on a course that has seen Rory McIlroy, Schwartzel and Brandon Grace run-up over the years, whilst his six-shot win at Leopard Creek put him (again) alongside some of the legends of South African golf. His victory at the Scottish Open, at coastal Gullane, may have shocked a few onlookers, but a win over Eddie Pepperrell on a course that saw Rickie Fowler win three years earlier is enough to further catch the eye.
Granted, we haven't seen that sort of form on many occasions since, but his two best efforts this year have been a tied-4th to Olesen at Ras and his second career T6 at the Di-Data, and he's lost none of his power off the tee, ranking highly for his driving and even better for greens-in-regulation.
10th after three rounds here last season, it's just about the 30-year-old putting it all together for four rounds. At the price I'll take the chance.
Big-hitting Frenchman Ugo Coussaud is on an improving run of form, making his sixth cut in a row and posting latest finishes of 34th in Ras, 12th in Bahrain and finishing runner-up in Qatar, having disputed the lead throughout the weekend.
The 30-year-old isn't new to the tour, having taken a few years to break his maiden status, but he did so in style last March, edging out Manuel Elvira and Fredric Lacroix to win in India. That form has its own substance, but he's raised the bar again with some very strong driving, evidenced in the past by a T6 and T8 at Fancourt.
He's a chance taken, particularly as he hasn't seen the course before, but the profile looks right and he can continue from the words spoken at last year's trophy presentation, "My golf has just taken time to come together but now it’s good." It's probably even better.
It'll be a good while before two Frenchman appear in the same article, but recent winner David Ravetto has a game made for the next two weeks.
Former winner of the Brabazon Trophy, the selection made progress through the Challenge Tour before earning his card via a second place at the 2022 Q-School. His first start - 9th at Leopard Creek - could easily have been better but for a third-round 73, but saw him finish in a group alongside the likes of Burmester and McKibbin, before 2023 saw him in-and-out of form as he started to adjust at the top level.
Still, T23 in Singapore led to a top-20 around here 12 months ago (first round 67) and further top-25 finishes at the KLM, Barbasol and at Blair Atholl, all very acceptable in context of this event.
Ravetto is a huge driver of the ball, leading the way at the South African Open, and his iron play has seen him rank 26th at the Dunhill Links and 17th at Blair Atholl, ultimately two events from his CV that might be most relevant.
It was not a huge shock to see him improve on his 2022 top-15 finish at Fancourt to win the Di-Data a couple of weeks ago and it was a lot to ask for him to repeat that form at the entirely different test of Muthaiga. Still, 14th off-the-tee for a track that doesn't reward distance, and top-40 for approaches is enough encouragement to believe that he's another for whom the next two weeks are amongst the most suitable on the calendar.
Finally, I can't resist backing near-veteran Ross Fisher to gain his sixth top-20 finish in 10 starts in South Africa since 2022.
The 43-year-old may not need to find much more than his renowned links form, highlighted with wins at the KLM, Irish Open and the 2014 Tshwane Open. Top that with a win at the Jack Nicklaus-designed London Club and it was only a glimpse of recent form that was enough to press the button.
The Englishman ended 2023 with a pair of top-20s at Joburg and Blair Atholl, and whilst '24 hasn't been great, he lay in 38th and 18th after three rounds in Bahrain and Qatar before succumbing on the respective Sundays.
The selection ranked highly through the first three rounds at St. Francis Links last year, laying 16th, 6th and 5th, before eventually finishing 23rd, and he still has enough power off the tee to compete with two-thirds of this field. Of note may be that his best figures around the green before this month came via the two events held here, and anything approaching those stats should see him land the bet in comfort.
