WGC-Amex Championship

The final World Championship event of the year and with the next one being the first professional event of next year, it is clear that these "World Championships" are being marginalized and squeezed out of the prime Tour scheduling positions. As a result, withdrawals are at a record high and will be even higher in Melbourne in eight weeks time. For all Tiger may dilute the game as it used to be, at least he is not afraid to prove himself on different courses and in different climates. He does make the effort to promote golf throughout the rest of the world.

Grumblings aside, this promises to be a great climax to the season. There is enough quality on the PGA and European Tours to present a challenge to Tiger, just as it was 12 months ago when the 17th hole produced yet another dramatic finale on this course. It had been the home to the final event of the European Tour, the Volvo Masters, until 1996 after which it was prepared, or rather manicured, for the 1997 Ryder Cup and this event since 1999. It is a very short course at 6853 yards, but one of the best challenges in European golf. It is a par-71 course, but last year's winning total was only six-under-par (just three players broke par) and the lowest winning total has been 10-under-par set by Colin Montgomerie in 1993. If anything, the set-up is more akin to courses on the PGA Tour than the parkland & links courses that dominate European Tour golf. Maybe that can explain the very poor overall performance of the Europeans last year. With an increased number of American withdrawals, Clarke's victory in the World Matchplay and the European stage-fright of an opening night World Championship event on their own soil not being the case this year, I do expect a much stronger performance from them this time around.

This is not a course on which length or accuracy off the tee is of paramount importance. The difficulty lies in the approach shots to the greens and so the ability to hit greens in regulation or scramble around the greens will decide the winner. Apart from Woods last year, the previous winners on this course had been Mark McNulty (1996), Alex Cejka (1995), Bernhard Langer (1994) and Colin Montgomerie (1993). All are not the best drivers in the game, and Tiger is the exception as ever, but are the very best iron-players, while being deft around the greens. These are the best greens in Europe and the rewards to a pure putting stroke will be evident this week.

Once again, Tiger Woods is available in excess of even money, but is passed over this week. This is his third straight week of competitive golf - he will also play in Thailand next week - and as well as not looking as dominant as he did a few months ago, this will be a tiring finale to the season. He should win, but I would say only 2/1 and above would represent value. Instead, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie and Nick Price are the three outright plays this week and are available at sufficiently high odds to make them e/w plays.

Westwood was extremely impressive last week in storming back from an opening 76 to finish just three shots behind the winner, Pierre Fulke. With a dramatic improvement in his putting, the leader in the European Tour putting stats got the rest of his game back under control. He is in ideal condition for this event. He finished 4th here last year and 2nd in 1996 so there is no doubting the suitability of his game to this course. He is involved in a very tight race with Darren Clarke for the European Tour Order of Merit so there is no doubting his commitment. And he came from behind to beat Tiger Woods and win the Deutsche Bank Open earlier this year, so he knows he is capable of beating him, at least on his own soil.

The second pick is Colin Montgomerie who is available at unprecedented high odds this week. He could have won last week had he not had a terrible 3rd round, but rather unusually he showed resolve in the final round to secure a top-10 finish. The reason: he managed to control the lateral movement on his upswing that had recently been causing him to miss a significant number of fairways off the tee. From 50% of fairways hit on Saturday, he hit 93% on Sunday. With that under control, he is a world class player that is more likely to win this event than a Major. He had been suffering from severe headaches last year when he finished 20th, but he has an otherwise excellent record on this course. He had an great Ryder Cup in 1997 and his record from 1990 to 1996 was 8th, 15th, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd & 29th. His is fresh and this is the season-ending tournament for him. He will lose his European crown this week, but he will not leave quietly.

Nick Price is the final pick. Available at good odds, he is good value play for a place finish. It has been a few years since he dominated world golf and now he is much more selective in the tournaments that he plays but without a drop in effort. Over the past three years he has finished in the top-5 of a tournament 32% of the time - a ratio surpassed only by Monty, Westwood and Woods this week - and he has finished in the top-3 five times from 17 tournaments on the PGA Tour this season. Those finishes include his last two events: 2nd at the Buick Challenge and 3rd at the Tour Championship last week. His core stats may not be very impressive anymore, but his continued ability to compete and the fact that he finished 4th last year makes him a decent value play.

With all the withdrawals, there are a large number of books still to offer lines on this tournament, so I shall wait to see if better odds can be attained before making these plays final.

Most of the books have lines open on this event now and are there appear to be good bargains for the three picks even though William offer the place win on just the first four places. The outright plays:

Lee Westwood 14/1 @ Paddy Power

Colin Montgomerie 20/1 @ William Hill

Nick Price 40/1 @ Paddy Power

Two early 72-hole plays:

Michael Campbell to beat Thomas Bjorn +105 @ Intertops
Alarming loss of form for Bjorn in the last two tournaments and finished almost last twelve months ago; he should be no match for Campbell who has the best current form of the whole field - three events in the last week and three top-3 finishes

Lee Westwood to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Sportfanatik
Top tip for this event in a playoff for the Order of Merit with Clarke. Can see Clarke contending, but coming off a poor way to lose to Fulke last week and with no course form - one top-10 finish (1993) compared to Westwood's 4th & 2nd on last two visits - he could struggle to find the top of the leaderboard this week

1st round plays:

Tiger Woods to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Simon Bold [3 units]

Lee Westwood to beat mark Calcavecchia +110 @ Simon Bold [3 units]

Spectacularly weak lines at this Gibraltar-based book. Will add them to the matchup listings later today.

72-hole plays:

Michael Campbell to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Playersbet
Adding another unit even though the best price has gone

Nick Price to beat Thomas Bjorn -140 @ WSEX
Already outlined the reasons why Price should over-perform this week and can't see Bjorn doing the same

Lee Westwood to beat Ernie Els +100 @ Five Dimes
Top pick for this week should secure at least a top-5 finish; I think this latest spate of Transatlantic hopping will be Els' undoing this week, particularly after he faded so much from the lead last week

Colin Montgomerie to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Playersbet
Leonard's game is suited to short, tough courses, but I don't rate his iron play to be strong enough to conquer this course. Monty has done in the past and on his home Tour he should prevail

1st round plays:

Angel Cabrera to beat Franklin Langham -140 @ Intertops [2 units]

Lee Westwood to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Lucas Parsons -180 @ Intertops [2 units]

1st round update: 2-3-0 and -5.80 units

Extremely disappointing losses on Woods & Westwood in the 'bargains of the year' plays. Woods lost by one to Bjorn, while Westwood only tied and that's not enough with a Euro book The other loss was a surprisingly poor Cabrera who lost by six to Langham. Westwood beat Clarke by two and Perry beat Parsons by ten for the two wins.

Break-even situation in the 72-hole plays as Els withdraws after nine holes to hand a victory in the Westwood-Els matchup, but Campbell trails by two in the two-unit play, Price leads Bjorn by seven, Westwood leads Clarke by two and Monty trails Leonard by three. Not too much cheer on the first day, but if Nick Price could hold on to be a 40/1 winner that would certainly make amends!

2nd round plays:

David Toms to beat Thomas Bjorn +110 @ Moneyplays

Darren Fichardt to beat Lucas Parsons +125 @ Surrey [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Hidemichi Tanaka -150 @ Surrey [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco +100 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Mathias Gronberg to beat Nobuhito Sato -110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Franklin Langham -125 @ Surrey [2 units]

2nd round update: 4-2-0 and +2.10 units

Some damage repair work done today. Flesch and Fichardt suffer heavy defeats - Tanaka was excellent in difficult conditions while Fichardt was one-under-par after 7 holes and level with Parsons; he then dropped nine shots in eleven holes   The winners were Toms by two, Perry by five over Franco and by two over Langham and Gronberg by three over Sato.

The 72-hole plays improved also to stand 4-0-1: Campbell leads Bjorn by four, Price leads by Bjorn by thirteen, Westwood and Clarke are tied and Monty leads Leonard by four, with Westwood having already beaten Els.

3rd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Duffy Waldorf -105 @ Moneyplays

Kyi Hla Han to beat Tjaart van der Walt +110 @ Surrey

Lee Westwood to beat Bernhard Langer -115 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Colin Montgomerie to beat Franklin Langham -175 @ Surrey

Justin Leonard to beat Nobuhito Sato -150 @ Surrey [2 units]

Nick Price to beat Hidemichi Tanaka -167 @ Centrebet

3rd round update: 4-2-0 and +3.33 units

Disappointing losses with Han - another pick to suffer a spectacular late collapse - and Price whose ball-striking was very poor though Tanaka was quite a revelation today. Fairly easy wins on the other four though: Calc won by three, Westwood by eight, Monty by three and Leonard by three.

72-hole plays still stand 4-0-1 with one decided: Campbell leads Bjorn by six, Price leads Bjorn by nine, Westwood leads Clarke by six and Monty is now tied with Leonard. Reasonable chance of a place finish with Westwood; not sure of that with Price now when it was looking good for a great 40/1 win on the outrights at the start of the day.

Round 4 plays will probably not be posted until early tomorrow morning.

4th round plays:

Steve Flesch +.5 strokes to beat Nic Henning -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Colin Montgomerie to beat Steve Flesch -110 @ Moneyplays

Colin Montgomerie to beat Chris Perry -130 @ Olympic

Colin Montgomerie +.5 strokes  to beat Jose Coceres @ Five Dimes

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Moneyplays

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five Dimes

Lee Westwood to beat Bob May -130 @ Olympic [2 units]

Nick Price to beat Duffy Waldorf -120 @ Moneyplays

Nick Price to beat Mike Weir -125 @ Sportfanatik

Lee Westwood to beat Vijay Singh -115 @ Sportfanatik

Final update: 5-5 and +0.90 units for the day; 19-12-1 and +5.58 units for the week

What a finish! Westwood in the water at the 17th, Price in the water twice - was glad to break even on the day after such disasters, particularly after they were outright plays as well   Price's finish of triple-bogey - single-bogey meant winning positions against Waldorf & Weir evaporated to three-shot losses to both, while Colin Montgomerie was the only other pick to lose. Expected playing for pride to return a round like Garcia's 64 today, but not to be.

The remaining results: Flesch/Henning 4 up; Monty/Flesch 6 down; Monty/Perry 3 down; Monty/Coceres 4 down; Jimenez/Franco 6up; Jimenez/Olazabal 1 up; Westwood/May 5 up; Westwood/Singh 1 up. Meant the opening day 3-unit losses on Woods & Westwood were cancelled out by wins on the next three rounds for finish this week's 18-hole plays in the black.

The 72-hole plays finished 4-0-1: Campbell/Bjorn 11 up; Price/Bjorn 12 up; Westwood/Clarke 9 up; Monty/Leonard all square and the Singh's victory Els secured on the first day. Good way to close the PGA & WGC season.

Update on outright plays: 2-1 and +2.00 units

Westwood finished 2nd despite going in the water on the 17th, but Weir probably had too much control to let his lead slip anyway so just a place finish for him. Price was just one shot behind Weir after 16 holes and was his most serious challenger, but to drop four shots in the last two holes and finish in a tie for 5th place with three other players meant just a small reward for a place finish when he deserved much more   Monty disappointed and finished in 25th position.

Back next week with the Johnnie Walker Classic - the 1st event of the 2001 European Tour season   Need to reach that 200-unit mark for the year