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Update: 15-11 and +4.48 units for the week Wow! Clarke certainly did do better than people thought; he won by a merry mile! Fine putting sir! A profitable week despite Duval suddenly finding his game around the turn today. Back to the
boring strokeplay golf on Thursday, however in association with Mad Jack's
Sports Forum and with the sponsorship of Fair Deal sports, I will be running a
weekly $100 golf contest starting with this week's Doral-Ryder Open. Now that
should liven it up! Will post full details tomorrow as well as provide link
As for the Final, I think Clarke will do
better than people think, I still think he'll lose Only play for me is Love to beat Duval then. Neither wants this game, but I'm determined to win one of my anti-Duval bets this week! LOL! Duval's only good performance of the week was against a lackluster Hoch; he allowed Duval to play with no pressure. Love has been the much better player throughout. Serious doubts about whether Duval can muster himself to play to any decent level in this sort of event anyway, such is his frustration at playing second-fiddle to Woods. Saw that frustration yesterday against Clarke when he couldn't produce the goods. He is the favorite to win and that doesn't help. Love was blown aside by Woods yesterday there was nothing he could do, but he got disheartened not frustrated. Will look to re-assert his game to any on-lookers today. Not overplaying these factors, this is a golfing non-event, but a play on Love looks a whole lot more profitable than one on Clarke and a lot less worrying than one on Woods. Staking plan: Davis Love to beat David Duval @ +110 available generally
Should have been missed! Tiger was seven-under-par for the 14 holes that they played. Awesome golf, but demoralizing from the very beginning for Love.
3-0 for quarter-finals. Love +185 at GoTo too good to miss!
4th round plays 3-1 and +2.00 units for the third round - definitely a volatile event to bet on! Garcia had his chances but never took them, disappointing in that but still nice to finish the day in the black! For the 3rd day Duval burns me, however I am actually going to back him to beat Scott
Hoch! If he has playing any of the other Americans he'd lose. If he were playing any of the Europeans or Scott Hoch I think he'd win. Such is the aura of the guy, despite his weaknesses. It is the penultimate day and now the pressure really starts. I think it'll be too much for Hoch. Duval hasn't done much to get this far, I don't think he'll
need to this morning.
3rd round picks Once again I'm predicting that Duval will be beaten! Okay, the last two
opponents have been sizeable dogs ranked outside the World Top-30, but today
he's up against a blowing el Nino. Yesterday Garcia was six-under-par for the
twelve holes it took to sweep aside Mike Weir. I said the getting out of jail on
Wednesday would catapult his game to a higher level; it did. Definitely the
marquee game of the day and one that Garcia will revel in all the more. Won't be
a an awful lot in it, but +130 for Garcia looks extremely enticing I also predict that the other Spaniard, Miguel Angel Jimenez, will also progress to the quarter-finals at the expense of Bob Estes. The Texan needed extra holes on Wednesday to defeat Steve Pate and he needed Els to three-putt on the last to win yesterday. It appears that Jimenez is completely well again, his triumph over Lehman was a major surprise. Does revel in big tournaments, including the last WGC event at Valderrama, and has performed well before when in the US. Davis Love has been more impressive as this tournament has progressed. Was only in 3rd-gear on Wednesday to hold off Olin Browne, but raised his game yesterday to beat a much stronger opponent in Jeff Sluman; he was five-under-par for those sixteen holes. Looks crucially to have the putter working better. Add that to being a fine matchplayer - undefeated at the last Ryder Cup. There should be little that Furyk can do about it, particularly given the difference between them in how far they hit the golf ball in these soft conditions! Once again, Hal Sutton is picked to win his match, this time against Duffy Waldorf. Have already said enough about why Sutton has a great chance of winning this event, just sufficient to point to the rankings. Waldorf is justifiably seeded 59th and it was Singh's ill-liking to this form of golf that enabled him to secure a notable, and predicted, first-round scalp. Duffy's had his glory, Sutton will just be too good and too determined to give him a chance. Staking plan: Sergio Garcia to beat David Duval @ +130 with Fair Deal Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Bob Estes @ +100 with Fair Deal Davis Love to beat Jim Furyk @ -133 with DAS or Megasports Hal Sutton to beat Duffy Waldorf @ -130 with Olympic
Update: Yikes! Back to earth with a bump today! Day loses by one hole in unfinished 1st round match; Westwood loses by one hole after losing three consecutive holes on the back nine and Sutton wins by one hole. Kinda tight, yeah? Not really so Herron who was never in the match and eventually lost 2&1 to Duval; and definitely not so for Lehman who lost 4&3 to Jimenez. Geez! Bad day!
Adding one more: Lee Westwood to beat Scott Hoch @ -125 with Premiere League Westwood's recovery from tonsillitis appears to be complete; he could have suffered in those condition yesterday but he didn't. He didn't drop a single shot in his victory over Brandt Jobe and was three-under-par status after 16 holes. Hoch opened with four birdies, but then fell back to the course and to his opponent just as he did when in a promising position last Sunday at the Nissan. May challenge Westwood in the early stages, but can't see him being able to keep up the standard of golf necessary for victory for the full round.
2nd round plays Not as many shocks yesterday than last year and don't expect there to be that many today. Two strong plays and just the one speculative one today. Will continue looking to see if there are any more before the off. The first of Tom Lehman to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez. Lehman looked excellent when thrashing last year's runner up Andrew Magee 6&4; sometimes to get a reaction to an easy victory the day after, just as with a very low score in a strokeplay tournament, but he is up against a still not fully fit Jimenez who edged out yesterday's pick, Brent Geiberger, on the 19th. Grrrrgh! Being out in those conditions too long yesterday will not have helped the Spaniard's condition; it should catch up with him today. The second is our pre-tournament favorite, Hal Sutton, to advance to the second round at the expense of David Toms. Another easy victory yesterday for our pick; he played Ted Tryba off the park! Whereas much was expected of David Toms and he largely didn't deliver. In a grinding match, he did barely enough to defeat Brian Watts. Will have to do a lot more today to stay with Sutton; don't expect him to. The speculative pick is Duval to be beaten. Okay, it didn't happen yesterday, but although the odds are less attractive, there is more chance of 'Dumpy' Tim Herron winning than a rusty Angel Cabrera. Herron is one of the best poor weather players around and in these conditions his chance of victory is greater than ever. But he's more than just that. He had a 100% record in the Walker Cup (the amateur version of the Ryder Cup) and was one of only two players to defeat Tiger Woods as an amateur. He can surely defeat Duval who has brought three putters with him this week, such is the confidence of the man! Staking plan: Tom Lehman to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez @ -154 with Centrebet Hal Sutton to beat David Toms @ -150 Bowmans or Victor Chandler Tim Herron to beat David Duval @ +200 with any of the starnet books, e.g. Sportfanatik or MySportsbook
First round report: 8-4 and +5.02 units Matchplay has the potential to embarrass people and I'm it wasn't my turn
today Couples: 1 up with 2 to play - loses by 1 hole That's frustrating! At least Robert's taking four shots from the edge of the 20th hole to gift victory to Sergio made up for some of it. Still one of the plays to be completed and things were not looking good for Sluman. Still it'll be a nice profit on the day. The first matchups for the 2nd round have been updated. Will update the rest
early morning and post my plays then
It means there's two more sizeable
scalps available for this tournament!
Mickelson -135 Moneyplays O'Meara +125 Moneyplays Why can't we have matchplay events every week! LOL! Improvements in staking plan odds: Brent Geiberger to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez @ +110 with Moneyplays or Fair
Deal [was +100] Duffy Waldorf to beat Vijay Singh @ +200 [+193 after 2.5% tax] with BlueSq
[was +180]
WGC Matchplay Last year five of the top-seven and twelve of the top-20 in the world rankings lost in the first round. The two finalists, had shown no form coming into the tournament, were ranked 24th and 50th. It was not good television and interest has waned this year! This year things should be different. Okay, they should be different. Two things suggest it will. The first is that the course has been made a little easier. Birdies make good television, and while it is still a good test of golf, concessions have been made to the money providers. The second is that this year the world's best players will be prepared. There is little more humbling than a journey out of town on the very first day. Last year was a wake-up call to the severities of matchplay. There will still be 1st-round shocks but only half as many as last year. There will be a total of 127 matchups to play, with half on the first day alone. It makes for exciting viewing, but it is important to recognize the volatility of matchup and keep wagers to a minimum. Course form, current form and especially the world rankings will be virtually worthless this week. That said, I have been unable to avoid the lure of the bright lights of matchplay and so there are a lot of plays for the 1st round. Most of them look solid on paper, plus there are a few speculative ones. Glenn Day is favored to beat Thomas Bjorn. A dependable and formidable pick, it will be up to Bjorn to beat him, he will not beat himself. Bjorn for his part has never performed on US soil. The next is a parley to compensate for the short odds. Davis Love to beat Olin Browne and Fred Couples to beat Joe Ozaki. Despite all the shocks that the first round will throw up, it is hard to see either of these two dogs having anything to snarl about on Wednesday. Jeff Sluman may struggle to get past the 2nd round, but is as strongly tipped as either Love or Couples to advance beyond the first round. Elkington should not even get a look in. The same can be said for Rocco Mediate. He faces Jim Furyk who has had some notable matchplay victories behind him despite being one of the 1st round casualties last year. His most notable victory was over Sergio Garcia in the 1999 Ryder Cup; that was only Sergio's 2nd ever matchplay defeat. Obviously with a proven record in this format, Sergio Garcia is also tipped to make it to the 2nd round by beating a hapless Loren Roberts. Current form difficulties will go out of the window for the Spaniard, but at least they've ensured decent odds for him. He will not be joined by at least one other Spaniard in the 2nd round. Between Olly and Jimenez, the latter is the better bet to be going home. He has been suffering from ill health for several weeks and despite good performances on US soil before, he is yet to play competitively this year. Will be too much of an ask against West Coast specialist Brent Geiberger. The Europeans don't generally perform well on US soil, other than in the Ryder Cup, and apart from the trio of Monty, Garcia and Parnevik, it is very hard to see any of them getting past the 2nd round. Paul Lawrie is not expected to go very far either. Has really struggled since the Ryder Cup and since chasing the pot of 'Open glory' gold around the world. Chris Perry may not have found last year's gear, but there should be ample form to dispose of Lawrie. The final 'solid play' triumvirate includes Bob Tway. This may be
considered a speculative play, being as it is, against the defending champion.
But Tway showed his matchplay credentials last year when he was very unlucky to
be edged out by Tiger Woods in the 2nd round. Maggert may have something to
prove after last year, but he had something to prove after winning this event.
He didn't prove that it was not a fluke. My pick to succeed Maggert this week is
Hal Sutton. Totally inspired and inspiring [ The first round will produce shocks, so here are my three most likely ones. Angel Cabrera will beat David Duval. Well, he may not beat him, but he'll push him real close. Hasn't played since finishing 3rd in the individual section of the World Cup to round off an excellent 1999 season, so rustiness could be his biggest problem. If that is not a problem then he has the temperament to rattle Duval who has, despite his Sunday performance in the Ryder Cup, shown obvious dislike for this format. Question marks also remain about his form as well. Another top-10 ranked player to tumble could very well be Nick Price. He simply looks vulnerable against Mark Calcavecchia who has played some excellent golf at times this season. If he shows that sort of form on Wednesday, that should be enough for a Thursday tee-off time. The other top-10 player predicted to go home early is Vijay Singh. Despite some decent performance in the other 'World Matchplay' over the years, he is no fan of this format and was roundly beaten by Bernard Langer last year. Duffy Waldorf will pose an even bigger test and had enough decent current form to come into this event full of confidence. Staking plan: Glen Day to beat Thomas Bjorn @ +100 available generally Davis Love to beat Olin Browne and Fred Couples to beat Joe Ozaki parlay @ +117 with DAS Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Elkington @ +100 [-103 after 3% 'service charge'] with Stan James Jim Furyk to beat Rocco Mediate @ -139 with William Hill Sergio Garcia to beat Loren Roberts @ -140 available generally Brent Geiberger to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez @ +100 with Five Dimes or DAS Chris Perry to beat Paul Lawrie @ -138 with Sportingbet Bob Tway to beat Jeff Maggert @ +115 with Carib, Easybets, WSEX Hal Sutton to beat Ted Tryba @ -159 with Megasports or SIA David Toms to beat Brian Watts @ -130 with Easybets or VIP Angel Cabrera to beat David Duval @ +250 with VIP Mark Calcavecchia to beat Nick Price @ +145 with Fair Deal Duffy Waldorf to beat Vijay Singh @ +180 with SIA
Quite a few scalp-frenzy out there right now Azinger +115 Bowmans, Carib, Easybets Campbell +450 VIP, SIA, Easybets, starnet books Els -182 DAS Estes +110 William Hill Garcia -140 Bowmans, Five Dimes, Carib, Easybets, Intertops, VIP Jobe +200 [+196 after 2% tax] Totalbet Lehman -130 SIA Montgomerie -192 Megasports Singh -164 William Hill Plus a host of other, smaller scalps!!! That's what matchplay's good for!!!
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Can't justify a wager on Woods at best odds of -350!
]
in the Ryder Cup, yet had sufficient self-control to not play any part in the
hysterical scenes on the 17th. Such strength of character will carry at the end
of an exhausting week. He is in the much easier bottom half of the draw and Ted
Tryba is no opposition! Finally, David Toms should face the same amount
of opposition in the form of Brian Watts. He may not get much further than the
1st round, but he is up against a shadow of the player that earned this top-64
slot.