WGC Matchplay

Two years ago five of the top-seven in the world rankings lost in the first round; this year only one will even tee up and that which such disdain that he will arrive in town the night before and will not have even looked at the course before teeing off. The timing and location of the event have been much criticized and the former is certainly justified, but as the overseas players have reported, there can be no complaints about the hosting of the event at Metropolitan. Lehman has compared the course to Augusta and Muirfield Village, no small praise indeed!

Local knowledge and acclimatization will be important this week and no-one is being touted more than local player, Robert Allenby who boasts 22 years of experience on this course. This has been reflects in the prices for this event, but as he admits, the emphasis will be on hitting fairways and finding the greens this week. This will not be a birdie-fest, but a touch challenge and the matchplay format only increases the importance of being patient and putting the pressure on your opponent by hitting the greens in regulation. Allenby's greens in regulation stats are not particularly impressive and he faces a tough 3rd round match against Hal Sutton (if fit), before playing Harrington or Leonard the following day. I favor Harrington to prevail and possibly win the event outright. He will not face a Southern Hemisphere until Allenby, so the local edge will be blunted, plus he has a good matchplay record as a pro and an amateur and has a game suited to this course.

In the lower half of the draw, the other outright pick is Bob May. He boasts a 5th place finish at the Vines in the Heineken Classic last year - his only recent outing in Australia - but he travels well and finished 2nd and 4th in two events in Japan at the end of November. His only hurdle before the 4th round could be Maruyama, but the result will be a match will the winner of the "eighth of death" which includes Singh, Taniguchi, Flesch and Appleby. May could face a tired opponent and a semi-final place will secure at least a place win.

In the top half of the draw, Michael Campbell looks the play. His toughest match should come in the 2nd round against Izawa who has been very impressive on the Japan Tour. Other than that match, I cannot see anyone else blocking his way to the semi-finals. He has the best overall stats of anyone in this week's field and does not have the problem of acclimatization to contend with. A Campbell-Harrington final is my prediction for the week!

In the top quarter, I do think that Els is vulnerable to an early defeat. If Tanaka does not beat the under-prepared South African, then Waldorf has every much a chance. The winner of that match will play for a semi-final place - and hence a place win - against the winner from the weakest eighth which boasts only Coltart, Huston and Parry at best. The 100/1 on offer for Waldorf @ DAS is very tempting, but in line with normal practice, three outright plays will be made and Waldorf is passed over.

Outright plays:

Padraig Harrington to win 33/1 e/w @ Surrey

Bob May to win 66/1 e/w @ DAS

Michael Campbell to win 18/1 e/w @ Sportingbet or Simon Bold

1st round plays:

Padraig Harrington to beat Steve Stricker -150 @ Simon Bold

Kirk Triplett to beat Glen Day -125 @ DAS

Toshimitsu Izawa to beat Steve Pate +138 @ Victor Chandler [3 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Paul Lawrie +110 @ Simon Bold

Duffy Waldorf to beat Jean van de Velde -138 @ First Stake [3 units]

Chris Perry to beat Jonathan Kaye -143 @ DAS [2 units]

Jose Coceres to beat Brad Faxon +110 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Per-Ulrik Johansson -137 @ Easybets

Tom Lehman to beat Greg Chalmers -133 @ DAS

Hidemichi Tanaka to beat Bernhard Langer +120 @ Centrebet

Toru Taniguchi to beat Bob Estes +100 @ William Hill

1st round update: 5-6 and -1.92 units

Not the start to the year I was hoping for: a losing day and my first taste of hate mail for my picks

Was looking quite grim at one stage with early losses for Harrington, Triplett, DiMarco and Waldorf, but my Japanese triumvirate of dogs all pulled through to show the reward to homework. Elsewhere, Perry and Lehman won, but Coceres and Flesch did not. In the outrights, Harrington's loss was a blow, but at least May and Campbell were convincing winners. Just need one of them to win three more matches to wipe out the opening day blues

There will be three picks for the 3rd round: Retief Goosen to beat Jean van de Velde; Chris Perry to beat Brad Faxon; and Bob May to beat Shigeki Maruyama. Just waiting on the best lines to come out.

2nd round plays:

Retief Goosen to beat Jean van de Velde -137 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ William Hill [2 units]

Bob May to beat Shigeki Maruyama -120 @ Five Dimes

The Starnet books have now joined Five Dimes and Easybets in offering lines for this event. Slowly, the word 'world' is becoming applicable to this event   As alternatives to the above Euro book plays, Sportfanatik offer -140 on Goosen and Five Dimes offer -130 on Perry. From these two books alone there are a couple of reasonable scalps based around differing opinions about the Japanese players: Campbell -225 Five Dimes & Izawa +300 Sportfanatik; Singh -245 Five Dimes & Taniguchi +300 Sportfanatik.

2nd round update: 0-3 and -6.34 units

Yikes! Goosen was roundly beaten 4&3 by van de Velde, Perry was edged out by one hole and May should have won. Maruyama holed monster, across-two-levels putts on the 17th & 18th holes to take into extra time. May thinned his chip through the green on the 4th extra hole and that was that   Means just one outright play survives: Campbell won 5&4 and needs two more wins to secure a place finish, though it looks like we might need him to win this event outright!

Three definite plays for the third round: Toru Taniguchi to beat Stuart Appleby, Michael Campbell to beat Pierre Fulke and Andrew Coltart to beat Craig Stadler. Hoping for some good lines and more importantly, some good luck.

Yesterday was definitely not my day!

In the second round, only six of the higher-seeded players won their matches. Yet from the Tour-Tips ratings, TEN of the 16 higher-ranked players won their matches, plus Taniguchi was ranked just one place behind Singh at #5.

And I managed to pick a clean sweep of three losers

3rd round plays:

Toru Taniguchi to beat Stuart Appleby +162 @ Easybets

Michael Campbell to beat Pierre Fulke -154 @ DAS [3 units]

Andrew Coltart to beat Craig Stadler -120 @ Easybets [2 units]

Justin Leonard to beat Steve Stricker -145 @ WSEX

No lines from the Starnet books tonight, but a welcome addition of WSEX to the fray who offer a 2nd-best +150 on Taniguchi as well.

3rd round update: 1-3 and -6.85 units

Jeez! What do I have to do to have a winning day? Stricker was 9-under-par through 13 holes and should not have been underestimated, but Coltart was 3 up with six holes to play and lost in a playoff after missing a seven-foot putt, while another huge thirty-five-foot putt on 18th killed off one of my matchup & outright picks, this time Michael Campbell who lost by one hole. Taniguchi was a good win at large odds, but this is one frustrating start to the year

Quarter-Final play:

Toru Taniguchi to beat Shigeki Maruyama +120 @ Easybets [3 units]

Quarter-Final update: 1-0 and +3.60 units

Taniguchi opened a large lead on the front nine and held despite some good pressure form Maruyama to win 2&1. Really need these Japanese wins this week

Semi-Final play:

Toru Taniguchi to beat Steve Stricker +100 @ Sportfanatik [3 units]

Semi-Final update: 0-1 and -3.00 units; 7-13 and -14.51 units for the week

Taniguchi bogeyed & lost the first hole to Stricker and was always trailing until he lost on the 17th. No value in the networks' horror final, so it's a disappointing end to an extremely disappointing week. At least we have a couple of strokeplay events next week with which to recover this week's losses. Need to forget this week in a hurry!