NEC Invitational

The second WGC event of the year and the last one was a very long time ago! Very few of the world's elite travelled to Melbourne for the WGC Matchplay event; quite the reverse this week. Duval and Singh withdrew last year because of back problems, but barring any such repeat, this event is a worthy of its "world" name.

The event is open to members of the 2000 Presidents Cup teams, the 2001 US Ryder Cup team and the top-12 from the European Ryder Cup points table - there are still two weeks of qualifying left in Europe. There is no cut. They play at the South course at Firestone Country Club, which had been the host to the NEC World Series of Golf before the WGC event. Like last week, it is a long par-70 with just two par-fives and one of those is 625 yards. This is not a power course, good overall driving and a deft touch around the greens is a must this week. 

A year ago, Tiger won this event by eleven shots with memorable scenes of the crowds holding up lighters in the darkness around the 18th green. He had just won four of his last six events and he was a heavy favorite. Now he has failed to finish in the top-10 in his last five starts, is having big problems with his swing and is reported to have fallen out with Butch Harmon, temporarily at least. The odds of 7/2 on him are as large as have been for several years and while he has the ability to turn his game round in a day, a mid-table finish is just as likely as a win. With Paddy Power again offering a refund of all lost outright bets if the selection finishes ahead of Tiger - would have been helpful last week with Price and Hoch - it looks to be the offer of the week. The 2nd best offer is 5 places from Surrey and NetBetSports even though there are only 39 players in the field!

The three selections for this event are Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk and Scott Hoch. After failing to overtake Toms down the stretch last week, Mickelson could well be expected to suffer a reaction, but his record on this course is so impressive, he gets the nod over Duval as primary selection. His finishes since 1995 read: 4th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. There is no doubting his form or the quality of his short game, so ignoring the 15/2 available from Sports.com and taking advantage of Paddy Power's offer looks the best option.

Furyk failed to make an impact on the leaders last week, but the turn-around in his game is complete. From the TPC to the US Open, he managed only one top-10 finish (8th at the MasterCard Colonial), but he has now finished 2nd and 6th in the last two weeks to secure his place in the Ryder Cup team. With the pressure of Ryder Cup qualification now over, he looks a good prospect for this event. He finished 4th last year and 10th and 14th on his other visits to Firestone. Not one for winning in this company, the option of five places with Surrey looks most appealing.

Scott Hoch finished the best-placed of last week's selections and is retained this week. The hole-in-one helped him secure 6th place and extend his run of top-10 finishes to seven from eight starts, ignoring the British Open. A runners-up spot in 1994 and a string of his customary top-15 finishes in other years, lends support to this being a good course for Hoch's game and in his current form, he can beat any one of this field. As with Furyk, the extra place available with Surrey is appealing.

Outright plays:

Phil Mickelson to win 6/1 @ Paddy Power

Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Scott Hoch to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Robert Allenby -125 @ Sporting Odds
Limited field so not so many matchup combinations available, but I can find little else other than to oppose two players I think will struggle this week. Allenby has missed the cut in three of his last six events and that is not good enough for this event. He has finished no higher than 12th in his three visits to the course and this is not impressive in significantly reduced fields. The main reason has been that he is a poor putter - he currently ranks 173rd on the PGA Tour's putting average stats - and this is a course that needs a good short game. His strength is on tough courses where par is a good score. Zinger is just a better player. He has missed just two cuts in the last two years and fully deserves his selection in the Ryder Cup team

Hal Sutton to beat Robert Allenby -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Sutton's whining about the AAC only favoring long-hitters was exposed when Toms won in style last week. Becoming more of a grumpy old man than a growling bear, Sutton is losing fans but he can still compete in this company. He will do well to repeat last year's 4th place finish, but a top-15 finish will easily be enough

David Toms to beat Robert Allenby -125 @ Centrebet
There may well be a fallout after securing his first major, but when he won the 1999 Sprint International he played the following week and finished 2nd in the Reno-Tahoe Open. Earlier this year, he won the Compaq Classic also in dramatic style against Mickelson and finished 11th in Byron Nelson Classic the week after. Winning a major is different, I know, but he seems capable of handling the pressure and looks set for a good week on a course that suits his game

Michael Campbell to beat Greg Norman -125 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Norman's record in the NEC World Series on this course was incredible. From 1984 to 1997 his finishes read: 8th, 7th, 20th, 10th, 12th, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 1st, 5th, 1st. When the course has hosted the WGC event, his finishes have read: 25th & 31st. Time has caught up with the Shark and we have to go back to Bay Hill to find his only top-20 on the PGA Tour this year. He continues to have good summers on the Australasian Tour, but not elsewhere. Cambo has a definite Jekyll & Hyde character on the course and which one will be most evident this week is unknown, but he has a good short game and should finish in the top-half of the leaderboard to secure the win

Carlos Franco to beat Greg Norman -130 @ Camelot
Franco has struggled this year, but has at least made his last four cuts and returns to a course on which he has played well in the past. He has secured two 7th place finishes in his three attempts

Mid-point update:

Good job there isn't a cut! All five plays are losing after 36 holes! Allenby has a two-shot lead over Azinger, a five-shot lead over Sutton and a three-shot lead over Toms. As for Norman, he has a six-shot lead over Campbell and a three-shot lead over Franco. All five can be overturned over the weekend though, but so could the position on the outrights. Furyk is 1st and Mickelson is 2nd. Hoch is further back in 24th position, but this could become a very good event or very much the opposite. Will make great viewing!

Final update: 5-0-0 and +7.00 units

What a weekend! The threat of storm meant a dramatic last round could not be watched live, but enough comfort in these winners. Norman closed with a round of 80 and so hand a one-shot victory to Campbell and a ten-shot victory to Franco. Allenby only shot 72, but it was enough for Azinger to win by eight, Sutton to win by five and Toms to win by four. What a weekend!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.63 units

Disappointing playoff loss to Woods as Furyk finishes 2nd   Almost a great event, but still a decent profit. Mickelson and Hoch disappointed to finish 8th and 21st respectively.