EMC World Cup

This event must be gaining in popularity. Last year, Woods and Duval were ranked #1 and #3 in the world rankings, while the next highest-ranked player was Thomas Bjorn, ranked #19 and the next cumulative ranking after the US team (4) was Spain at 61. This year, eight of the top-12 in the world rankings are in Japan for the last WGC event of the year. The United States team will be looking for a hat-trick of victories this week. Two years ago Woods won this event on behalf of the US team despite Mark O'Meara and last year he teamed up with Duval in the new format of alternating rounds of foursomes and fourballs to ease to victory over Argentina, the home nation.

They play on the Gotemba course at The Taiheiyo Club, which has hosted Sumitomo VISA Taiheiyo Masters since 1997. Together with the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament and the Casio World Open, these events form the International section of the Japan Tour schedule and feature a host of international former winners. The course was ranked second in the Japanese section of the 1999 "Best Courses in 100 Countries" selected by US Golf Digest magazine. It is expected to play very tight, while the greens have been likened to those at the Augusta National for both quality and speed.

There are two outright selections this week, though neither at particularly large odds. They are the United States and Japan. Duval may have faltered at times last week, but coming straight off the Tour Championship, it was a fine performance to win. The main worry with Woods had been his back, but he showed few signs of discomfort in China over the weekend and they look justifiably heavy favourites. The competition may be stronger this year, but they are by far the best pairing and they have enough experience of playing together as well. Surrey did go 13/8 yesterday, but Simon Bold still offer an attractive price when many books have them odds on.

The second selection is the Japan team, but only in the 'w/o USA' market. Argentina showed the benefits of home support and conditions when the ran a close second to Woods & Duval last year and there is every reason to expect the Japanese pairing to repeat the performance. Izawa only finished 12th in the Dunlop Phoenix last week, but he had won four of his previous six Japan Tour starts, including the Sumitomo VISA Taiheiyo Masters held on this course two months ago. He also won that event on this course last year, so there can be little doubt that the setup favors his game. Maruyama finished 12th in the 1999 event, but he had been 2nd going into the final round, so again there is support for the Japan team on this course. With their main rivals for 2nd place having at least one player who played in the weather-affected Volvo Masters in Europe at the weekend, the home team look the best rivals to the US/J~ham.

Outright plays:

United States to win 11/8 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

Japan to win 8/1 @ Centrebet [w/o US market]

Just one 72-hole play at the moment:

Holland to beat Malaysia -145 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Fully expect the Malaysian pairing to go one worse than last year and finish last. They managed to qualify for this event by finishing in the top-six in the Davidoff Nations Cup, but that event was held at the Royal Selangor Golf Club in Malaysia. Playing in Japan will be a different affair. Neither player has played well outside Malaysia before now: Chia has never secured a top-20 finish on the Davidoff Tour and Gunasegaran has just one top-10 to his name on this Tour. The pairing of Lafeber and Derksen will struggle to finish in the top half of the table, but they have plenty enough experience to beat the Malaysians. As a means of comparison between the quality of players, while Chia and Gunasegaran have had no success on the Davidoff Tour, Lafeber finished 7th in the Malaysian Open and 3rd in Singapore Masters earlier this year, the two European and Davidoff Tour co-sanctioned events.

Adding:

Canada to beat England -111 @ BetInternet [2 units]
Expecting a good week from the Canadian team and a repeat of their top-10 finish last year. Weir again confirmed his progression as a player by taking the PGA Tour Championship two weeks ago and will find a compatible partner in Leggatt. He may have struggled in the scramble to retain his PGA Tour card (he failed), but he was picked by Weir as they have known each other for a long time through the Canadian Tour and can combine their left hand/right hand swings to special effect in the foursomes to best manage the course. Last year the English team finished 16th, with Poulter and Casey having both played at Montecastillo on Sunday, they will be hard pressed to better that performance

Canada to beat Scotland -110 @ Sports.com
Both the Scots played in Montecastillo as well and with Coltart struggling with his game at the moment, they will also struggle to make it into the top-10. They will miss Paul Lawrie who has a proven record internationally

Fiji to beat France -115 @ Five Dimes
I may be wrong about the Montecastillo effect, but it was a particularly grueling event because of the weather and to fly to Japan and tee it up four days later suffering from jetlag and the loss of nine hours via the differences in the time zones, it just seems to much to ask these players to play to the best of their abilities. Levet and Jacquelin did play in the Volvo Masters and neither have played particularly well for some time. It is therefore easy to side with a world-class player such as Singh and Chand who is based on the Japan Tour, having won once this season and finished in the top-10 in the two events prior to the Dunlop Phoenix. The fact that Chand used to be Singh's caddy should also enable them to work well as a team. 

Paraguay to beat Zimbabwe +100 @ Five Dimes
Once again, the Montecastillo factor. Johnstone gave his best performance for months in finishing 7th last week - he had had just one other top-40 finish since March - but McNulty was familiarly uncompetitive. He has failed to gain a single top-20 finish outside South Africa this season. With their age, the Montecastillo effect should be enhanced and this should be an easy win for the Francos. For all that Argentina caught the headlines for pushing the US team hard last year, it was the Paraguayans who finished 3rd

Mid-point update

No cut, of course, but a generally favorable situation after 36 holes. May have overplayed the Montecastillo effect - New Zealand, Scotland, Denmark and France are surprising early contenders - though David Smail has been playing well in Japan recently and the tiredness factor should become more important as the week progresses. The standings after 36 holes: Holland/Malaysia 4 up; Canada/England 2 up; Canada/Scotland 2 down; Fiji/France all square; Paraguay/Zimbabwe all square. The outrights are in decent shape with the Japan team 2nd behind New Zealand and the US team a shot further back in 4th place.

Final update: 2-2-1 and +0.78 units

Good position after 36 holes; not so after 72! Holland beat Malaysia by three shots and Canada beat Scotland by two, but they lost to England by one and Paraguay finished three behind Zimbabwe. In the remaining play, Fiji tied with France. Small profit on the matchup plays with the 3-unit play winning, but the Montecastillo was obviously overplayed.

Update on outright plays: 0-2 and -3.00 units

The US team lost in a four-way playoff after eagling the final hole - as the winners South Africa did - to join the clubhouse leaders. The late charge proved fruitless, but it was more than the Japanese team managed. They have looked good all week, but could only shoot level-par in the last round and fell from 2nd to 11th.