American Express Championship

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Tiger Woods to win 9/4 @ WSEX
Had my own benchmark odds of 9/4 and got them, so no qualms about backing the favourite. On a Jack Nicklaus-designed course described as the "Augusta of Europe", he should be suited. He's won four of the six strokeplay WGC events he has entered and has been busy fine-tuning his game as he needs to improve on a poor Ryder Cup record.

Sergio Garcia to win 18/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Bet365, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler or Sportingbet
The 1999 Irish Open was his first Tour win and although that was a links course (Druids Glen), he should relish the return to the Emerald Isle. Gained a confidence-boosting win in Korea two weeks ago and is another who will revel rather than wilt in the run-up to the Ryder Cup.

Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Bet365, Sporting Odds, UKBetting or Sportingbet
Has never played in Ireland and would have probably fared better had this been a links course, but his form cannot be faulted at the moment. More importantly, his recovery from throwing away the PGA Championship appears to be complete. He had a decent showing in the NEC Invitational the following week and a runners-up spot in the Canadian Open. With good memories of playing in Europe, basically the British Open, he could go close again this week.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat Len Mattiace -105 @ Aces
Can't see anything but a mid-table position from Mattiace, it has been the way in his two previous European starts and in his only WGC event to date. Appleby lost in a playoff for the British Open in his last European visit and won have won the JP McManus Pro-am by three shots (from Tiger Woods) in 2000 in his only start in Ireland had he not been disqualified for using an illegal laser measurement device during the first round. Can't see why Mattiace is the favourite.

Tim Clark to beat Scott Laycock -127 @ Five Dimes
Big difference between some good finishes on the Japan Tour and playing on the PGA Tour where Clark has had a top-10 finish this year and made the cut at the PGA Championship last month. Both will be making their WGC debuts and have played in just two events in Europe - the Scottish and British Opens earlier this summer. Laycock missed the cut in both and was defeated by Clark on both occasions who managed a top-3 finish in the Scottish Open.

Nick Price to beat Chris DiMarco -120 @ Bet365
A long way from his West Coast form and with a best in Europe of 25th (2000 AmEx Championship), I can't see a high finish from DiMarco this week. Price is simply playing much better, revels in these high quality events and in six shared European or WGC events, he has never been beaten by DiMarco.

Bob Estes to beat Chris Riley -130 @ Aces
Riley is certainly one of the rising stars of the game, but will oppose him on his WGC debut and side with the experienced Estes who can boast a top-20 in the NEC Invitational and a top-10 in the Canadian Open in the last few weeks.

Niclas Fasth to beat John Rollins -130 @ Five Dimes
Rollins had some impressive performances on the PGA Tour before his dramatic win in the Canadian Open two weeks ago, but he is opposable this week. This will be his first event outside North America and it should be rather daunting for a player who couldn't make cuts on the Buy.com Tour fifteen months ago. Apart from stage fright, he should also be exhausted. Apart from the jet lag, this will be his sixth straight event and his eleventh event in twelve weeks. Fasth disappointed for three rounds in Germany last week, but he does to raise his game for these big events.

Rocco Mediate to beat John Rollins -120 @ William Hill [3 units]
Mediate has not played well on links courses in Europe, but this is a parkland course this week and with a 6th place finish in the PGA Championship and top-25 in the NEC Invitational, he seems to be nearing his Spring form. No chance of winning the event, but top-20 will be more than enough.

Mid-point update:

Appleby/Mattiace Leads by 8
Clark/Laycock Leads by 3
Price/DiMarco Trails by 3
Estes/Riley Leads by 5
Fasth/Rollins Leads by 8
Mediate/Rollins Leads by 9

Woods 1st
Garcia 22nd
Leonard 9th

Where's a cut when you need one! Some healthy leads in the matchups, but it would have been nice to have them decided before anything goes wrong over the weekend! Leonard has a decent shot making a top-5 finish and if Garcia could learn how to play the last eight holes - he has reached 5-under-par for the round both times he has stood on the 11th tee and both times finished with 69 - he could sneak a top-5 as well.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +3.80 units

Appleby/Mattiace WON by 11
Clark/Laycock LOST by 2
Price/DiMarco LOST by 1
Estes/Riley WON by 10
Fasth/Rollins WON by 10
Mediate/Rollins WON by 9

Outrights: 1-2; +0.38 units

Woods 1st
Garcia 7th
Leonard 11th

Almost a great event. Very large wins in the matchups and some very close misses. Price lost by a single shot, Clark lost by two having double-bogeyed the last hole and Garcia finally discovered how to play the back nine with an inspired 62 in the final round, but it was too late to secure that top-5 spot. Profitable event though.