EMC² World Cup

Outright plays (1 unit):

United States to win 13/5 @ Five Dimes
Ladbrokes quote the Mickelson/Toms pairing at evens and that is much nearer my own price. By far, the best pairing on view this week. Not only do they possess the two highest World Rankings on view this week, but they have a close friendship and had the most successful American partnership at the Ryder Cup this year. Should win with ease and enable two free bets for place finishes.

Japan to win 18/1 e.w. @ Heathorns (4 places)
The best place terms on view this week, so will take the offering at Heathorns rather than the 20/1 available elsewhere. Both players have played well in North America, with Izawa finishing 2nd at the Nissan Open and 4th at the Masters last year and Maruyama winning twice in the last two PGA Tour seasons. Izawa has not been in particularly good form in the last few weeks, but they formed a good partnership in this event last year (for three rounds anyway) and Maruyama teamed up with Tanaka to finish 4th in Buenos Aires two years ago.

Canada to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler (3 places)
Both players are coming off extended breaks. Weir has not played since losing in the first round of the Cisco World Matchplay in October, but at least he has working with his coach, Mike Wilson, in California for the past few weeks, while Leggatt's break was well-deserved after he finished the 2002 season which included his first PGA Tour title (Tucson Open). They teamed up to finish 6th in Japan last year and Weir and Hnatiuk also finished in the top-10 in 2000. This looks a big price when 16/1 is generally available, and while there are only three places, it is hard to see them outside the top-10.

Matchup-plays (1 unit unless stated):

Canada to beat Wales -110 @ SkyBet
Will add two matchup plays for two of the outright selections. Wales' pairing of Woosnam and Dredge finished the European Tour season in good form, but Dredge has never played in North America and Woosie's best finish on the PGA Tour in the last three years is 40th. Would have been a decent pairing had this event been staged in Europe.

Canada to beat Sweden +100 @ Bet365
Sweden boast two excellent players for the future, but Pettersson has just come off a guelling six-day haul at the PGA Qualifying School. He qualified, but he did it the hard way: a closing 66 to be in the top-35 for the first time in the week. Just don't see him being able to raise his game again this week.

Japan to beat Sweden -111 @ BetandWin
Same as above. Siding with a team with a more realistic chance of winning against a team with one player totally drained.

Japan to beat Denmark -110 @ Bet365 [2 units]
Soren Hansen and Thomas Bjorn almost hung on for victory last year, but this year should be a different affair. Neither Anders nor Soren is playing particularly well at the moment - they have only one top-10 each since the British Open five months ago - and in their cumulative six PGA or WGC events, their best finish is 39th and that was in the limited-field American Express Championship.

Fiji to beat France -111 @ Centrebet
Didn't expect to see the #2 seeds on an even footing with France. Chand may find this a step-up in class from the Japan Tour, but he has been playing much better in the last four months and this is also a big step-up in class for Jacquelin who has secured only one top-10 finish since January. Will take Vijay Singh to carry his partner better than Levet any day.

South Africa to beat France -118 @ Expekt
South Africa will not be retaining their title this week, but at least Sabbatini and Clark can point to some good performances on the PGA Tour in the past two months. Sabbatini finished 5th in the Invensys Classic and Clark closed out his season with two 6th place finishes and a top-25 finish in his last four events. Good enough to beat the French team.

South Africa to beat Germany -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Opposing the German team for the same reason as for the Swedes. Their main player, Alex Cejka, came through a gruelling PGA Tour School when he gave a great performance to finish 2nd and narrowly miss out on winning the event altogether. It caps a brilliant end to the season with finishes of 6th, 2nd, 1st, 11th and 2nd in his last five events. Were it not for the Qualifying School, he could have carried his partner who has failed to make the weekend in eight of his last eleven starts, but he only finished Q-School on Monday and this event is a poor relation to the importance of last week's tournament.

Korea to beat Germany -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
Ho did compete at Q-School, but was never in contention and so should not suffer from fatigue to the same degree. He is also very much the junior partner to Choi who can boast five top-10 finishes, including a win at the Tampa Bay Classic, in his last six starts. Much too good for a tired German team.

Scotland to beat Germany -115 @ Olympic
The Scottish team are nowhere near as strong as the Koreans, but they should also beat the tired Germans if Lawrie can maintain the form that has brought him a win (Wales Open) and three 2nd place finishes in the last five months.

New Zealand to beat Scotland -111 @ BetandWin
Still think the Scottish team will finish outside the top-10, so opposing them with the Kiwis. Perks has struggled since winning the Players Championship, but he has shown he is a capable player at this level and he has a very capable partner in Campbell who has played well all year and returned after a break to finish 4th in the TCL Classic a few weeks ago.

Final update:

Matchups: 9-1-0; +10.89 units

Canada/Wales WON by 4
Canada/Sweden WON by 5
Japan/Sweden WON by 14
Japan/Denmark WON by 11
Fiji/France WON by 8
South Africa/France WON by 11
South Africa/Germany WON by 12
Korea/Germany WON by 13
Scotland/Germany WON by 6
New Zealand/Scotland LOST by 5

Outrights: 1-2; +9.25 units

United States 2nd
Japan 1st
Canada 8th

Great finish by the Japan team to cap a great event! Between the three outright picks, the lead was held for virtually the entire event and the matchups looked very healthy throughout the week. What a pity the season has to end now!