American Express Championship
Outright plays (1 unit):
Jim Furyk to win 22/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Returning to a couple of familiar faces in this year's selections. Furyk
is now an outsider for the Player of the Year award, but he has still
maintained his consistency as the season has begun to wind down. He won
once and finished in the top-20 in all four starts in August, while he
has now had a four-week break to recharge the batteries. He is in the
top-5 in many of the important stat categories and can compete on any
course, though it will not harm him that there are only two par-fives.
Davis Love to win 22/1 e.w. @
UKBetting
Given Love's length off the tee, it is surprising that he ranks much
lower in the the 'par-five performance' stat - 42nd against 6th. Though
he does rank 6th in the more important (for this week, at least)
'par-four performance' stats, in which Furyk is 2nd. Also like Furyk, he
has largely rested since the last WGC event (he did play in the John
Deere Classic) and should be fresh for the final run-in to the end of
the season. Both he and Furyk rank in the top-5 in 'final round scoring
average' so unlike last week's reservations about Howell being in
contention at the mid-point, both these players should be able to
deliver the goods if they get the chance. At this price, you need
players who can do that!
Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365,
Paddy Power, BlueSq,
UKBetting and Totalbet
Larger price, though no less able a player. Goosen is coming off a
runners-up spot on the PGA Tour last month (the International) and a win
in the Trophee Lancome three weeks ago, so form is not a problem. Nor
has it been all season as he currently ranks 7th in scoring average on
the PGA Tour (behind Furyk and Love) and he has shown that he can play
in Georgia in particular. Since the start of last season, his finishes
in Georgia events read: 1st, 2nd, 9th, 3rd, 13th. He should feature
again this week.
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Chad Campbell to beat Sergio Garcia -118 @
Expekt
With a best finish of 19th since the British Open, Garcia is still very
opposable particularly with a player I looked at closely for the
outright (place-only) market. Campbell also has a healthy 11-4-1 h2h
lead over the past 12 months.
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -118 @
Expekt
[2 units]
Got chewed up and spat out on the European Tour last week, including
three matchup plays against Campbell, but on American soil it should be
a different matter. Even though he has turned his season around by
returning to the European Tour, he still struggled when he made the trip
back for the PGA Championship and the NEC Invitational. Price leads him
9-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour (plus WGC events) in the past year and that's
pretty convincing.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)
Adam Scott to beat Michael Campbell -125 @
Intertops
[2 units]
Scott has played less on the PGA Tour than Price so only leads Cambo
6-0-0 h2h over the past year in those and WGC events, but he is arguably
in better form than Price having won twice in the past two months,
including the Deutsche Bank Championship.
(also available at SkyBet)
Darren Clarke to beat Lee Westwood -120 @
William Hill
and
Easybets
[2 units]
Opposing the winner in the following week is standard, particularly when
it involves a Transatlantic trip. I do hope the young Englishman will
return to the top of the game, but his is still a very long way behind
his stable mate who has finished 1st, 9th, 1st, 5th and 4th in his last
five starts and the first of those was at the NEC Invitational.
(also available at Intertops)
Bob Estes to beat Peter O'Malley -111 @
BetandWin
Basically opposing O'Malley who has finished in the top-50 just once on
American soil in the past five years and that was in a Nationwide Tour
event last year. Estes won't win this week, but top-40 should be enough.
Jonathan Kaye to beat Raphael Jacquelin -152 @
William Hill
and
Easybets
[2 units]
Jacquelin has been in good form lately, but he has never played in a WGC
event, late alone on American soil until this week. No chance against a
player who won on the PGA Tour in June and has finished 2nd and 9th in
his last two starts, the first of which was at the NEC Invitational.
Adding (1 unit):
Charles Howell to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ WSEX
Avoiding Howell with the outright market, but with home cooking and some
local knowledge to his advantage, he should have the upper hand over
Bjorn who struggled in the PGA Championship and NEC Invitational in
August when last on American soil.
Len Mattiace to beat David Howell -107 @ Five
Dimes
I can't see Howell as the favourite in this matchup. He may have
finished in the top-10 in his last four starts, but he has only played
in the U.S. on two occasions (1999 Memorial Tournament and 2002 U.S.
Open) and missed the cut both times, shooting 76-79 and 78-81. Mattiace
has been steady of late and will need no more for this matchup.
Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson -140 @ WSEX
Huge contrast in form between these two with Mickelson having secured
just one top-10 since the Masters which Weir won. In that time, Weir has
finished in the time in more than half of his starts and is certainly
the dominant Lefty on Tour at the moment.
David Toms to beat Lee Westwood -110 @
Stan James
Also opposing Westwood with Toms. Three times Westwood has played in the
U.S. in the past two months and three times he has finished behind Toms.
Might be a different story in Europe, but not in Georgia.
Final update:
Matchups: 7-3-0; +5.35 units
Campbell/Garcia LOST by 14
Price/Campbell WON by 6
Scott/Campbell WON by 8
Clarke/Westwood LOST by 2
Estes/O'Malley WON by 6
Kaye/Jacquelin WON by 12
Howell/Bjorn WON by 2
Mattiace/Howell LOST by 8
Weir/Mickelson WON by 3
Toms/Westwood WON by 12
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Furyk 12th
Love 40th
Goosen 8th
Profitable event with a good return on the matchups. Always
struggling to get a top-5 place win with any of the outrights though.
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