EMC² World Cup

Outright plays (1 unit):

Australia to win 11/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
On paper, this looks a very strong team and at least second-best behind the Americans on their own soil. Appleby did not play well last week, but has been in great form recently with a win and two runners-up finishes in September/October and Leaney was also impressive in finishing 5th in the Volvo Masters two weeks ago despite a opening 77. He also finished 2nd in the U.S. Open this year. It looks like an untried partnership and Australia have not done particularly well in this event in the last three years, but a team with Appleby in it should do well this week. Ladbrokes offer 12/1 but only three places.

England to win 11/1 e.w. @ Coral
The young guns of Casey and Rose is tested - they finished 3rd last year and were only four shots behind Japan with on round to play. Casey also partnered Poulter two years ago when they finished 5th, but they could have won that event had their 2nd round not been so poor. The foursomes is a concern with this pairing also, but if Casey can carry his partner in those two rounds, then they will have a great chance of being in contention for a third year in a row.

South Africa to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill
This price is simply to large. This may not be the dream pairing of Els & Goosen that won this event two years ago, but Sabbatini partnered Clark to finish 5th last year when they were little-fancied to retain their title. They actually came very close to doing so - they had been in 2nd place, just one shot behind Japan with one round to play, but suffered under the final round pressure. This year, Immelman takes the place of Clark and while he has less experience of playing in the U.S., he can at least point to a top-10 finish in the NEC Invitational in August. I don't expect this pairing to win, but a top-4 place finish is a distinct possibility.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Mexico to beat Chile -111 @ Stan James [3 units]
I see Chile and Myanmar as the two worst teams in this event by a long way. Chile have a player, Roy Mackenzie, who appears to have never played in a single main Tour event, not even the Tour de Las Americas. Aguilar won't be able to carry him as easily as Quiroz (who has substantial international experience) will be able to carry Maldonado. A basement clash, but a straightforward one.

Wales to beat Denmark -110 @ Bet365
With the withdrawal of Thomas Bjorn through a neck injury, it leaves the Danish teams very light on experience in the United States or in WGC events. Dredge is also in this category, but at least he and Price already have a working partnership and Price has lots of experience in these types of  events.
(also available at Victor Chandler)

United States to beat England -200 @ Centrebet
The American team are no value to win this event outright, but everything is in their favour this week. This is a big price for a hedge play, but if England do win this match they will be very short odds to win the event.
(also available at Expekt)

India to beat Myanmar +100 @ Stan James [3 units]
Win Aung is a poor player. I don't know if he is as bad as Roy Mackenzie because I can't find any records on him, but I can on Aung. He has played four times in the last three years - three times in his national Open - and has a record of three missed cuts and one withdrawal. I can't see how Stan James can make India, with two players who have had several top-10 finishes on the Davidoff Tour this season, the underdogs.

Paraguay to beat Trinidad & Tobago -138 @ Stan James
Carlos Franco and Stephen Ames may be evenly matched this week, but their junior partners are not. Robert Ames has only played a small number of Tour de Las Americas events and struggled; Ruiz is a winner on that Tour and finished 34th in the British Open this year.

Adding (1 unit):

United States to beat Sweden -185 @ Five Dimes
Opposing the Swedes on the standard angle of having played across the Atlantic the previous week. They did make a formidable partnership in the Seve Trophy, but the week after the Volvo Masters, it is hardly ideal preparation for this event at this stage of the season. Jacobson did win the Volvo Masters, but after his two previous Tour wins he has missed the cut and finished 80th. He will need to improve his driving considerably if this pairing is to challenge the Americans this week.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.00 units

Mexico/Chile WON (Chile wd)
Wales/Denmark WON by 13
United States/England LOST by 5
India/Myanmar LOST by 2
Paraguay/Trinidad and Tobago LOST by 8
United States/Sweden WON by 1

Outrights: 2-1; +14.60 units

Australia 15th
England 2nd
South Africa 1st

A great result given that I said I didn't expect South Africa to win, just finish in the top-4. The other events this week threatened to be very profitable but weren't so this is a very welcome false prediction!