American Express Championship

From Shaker (2):
Sell Adam Scott/Chris DiMarco 72H MB at 0 for 0.5 pts with Cantor Sport
We all know Adam Scott is going to be a massive star in World golf, if he isn't already, but consistency is the one thing that lets him down at present. Here we have the chance to take that on with a player who has gone T15-T6-T2-T6-T24-T3 in his last six starts and who finished T6 here in 2002, some 14 shots ahead of Scott. The easy-scoring nature of this course, from the lesser demands on accuracy to the trueness of the greens, should suit DiMarco down to the ground and there looks to be very little obstructing a good week for him. Scott could win this thing, don't get me wrong, and indeed he probably has more chance of doing so than DiMarco, but there is also a far higher chance of him finishing way down the field than CDM.
Result: MU 0, No Loss or Profit (Worst finish in ages for DiMarco, lucky Scott faltered too)

Buy Retief Goosen/Sergio Garcia 72H MB at 0.75 for 0.5 pts with IG Sport, Spreadex or Sporting Index
Prior to both firing 62s (!) on the Sunday here two years ago, Goosen had gone 2 shots lower than Garcia in each of the first three rounds and I make him even more superior than that. As well as Goosen's overall form, especially consistency, being on a different level, I have the course as suiting him far more than Garcia, and Stanley's course compatibility ranks agree with me - 7th vs 59th. I think Garcia's Ryder Cup heroics have caused a big overreaction in his price for this week and I was as close to buying his FP as I was to putting Goosen up as an outright bet. This match allows me to sort-of combine the two!
Result: MU -1, Loss = 0.88 pts (Goosen did well, as expected, unfortunately Garcia did too)

Buy Stephen Leaney NO MAX FP at 38 for 0.5 pts with IG Sport
Amazing that the same quote can be present for Leaney and my earlier trade, Jay Haas. Would you rather have all the consistent form of Haas (detailed below) or the 13 finishes outside the top 35 from just 20 2004 events of Leaney? Madness in my book, and Leaney's putting is the main culprit; he stands 176th on tour for putting average, 148th for putts per round, 188th for birdie average, and 191st for birdie conversion and I fail to see how he can possibly hope to live with this calibre of field on perfect putting surfaces. His latest run of finishes is T53-T40-T47-MC-T65-MC-T22-MC and surely his struggles should show up even more when the quality of putting stroke is going to be so important.
Result: MU 63, Profit = 12.5 pts (Nice to get one almost perfectly right for once!)

From Shaker (1):
Sell Jay Haas NO MAX FP at 35 for 0.5 pts with Cantor Sport
I think Haas' FP quote should be significantly lower, and this gap makes up for any doubts over his ability to perform to his best outside America, and the slight downturn in his PGA Tour performances recently. Overall this season he has been incredibly good with 8 top-12 finishes in 18 events, with only two missed cuts and one other back-of-the-field finish. He has consistently achieved much better finishes than this quote, in bigger fields and the very best events too.
Despite this event being in Ireland, the players say it is very much an American-style course, which should help, and I am hoping his last two public outings, 2nd on the Champions Tour and then a decent Ryder Cup debut, are a sign that he is ready to throw in another solid performance. His figures are undoubtedly far better than the implication by Cantor that he will finish below half-way this week - I have only around 15 players ranked higher and Stanley's rankings have him 20th, out of the 68 entries.
Result: MU 45.5, Loss = 5.25 pts (5 dropped shots in the last 6 holes saw him lose over 20 places)

Overall for Shaker: Profit 6.37 pts (Profit, but annoyed that Haas didn't double it and more)


From Andy:
Tournament Finishing Positions (0.5pt stakes). (Overall Loss 45.25 pts) Absolute Carnage. The only way to describe it when all the name players have a big week.

Buy Lee Westwood @ 29  ...MU 14... Loss 7.5 pts
Buy Sergio Garcia @ 21  ...MU 4.5 ...Loss 7.75 pts
Buy Ernie Els @ 16 all at IG Sport... MU 1... Loss 7.5 pts

Buy Stewart Cink @ 22...MU 25... Profit 1.5 pts
Buy Padraig Harrington @ 23...MU 7... Loss 8 pts
Buy Darren Clarke @ 24...MU 4.5... Loss 9.75 pts
Buy Retief Goosen @ 19.5 (Spread Free) all at Spreadex ...MU 7... Loss 6.25 pts

Trading against seven of the most fancied players here purely on price. There is only going to be around 68-70 players in this event but by and large they are the best players in the world. The FP quote is based on the full field and not a 50 M/U as per normal weeks. With all this information and the results and stats of the above players I have each of them in for at least 3-4 pts higher (Harrington, possibly as much as 6 pts). To be honest we are likely to lose on players of this standard a good % of the time but win overall and I feel that at a combined buy at 154.5 places on seven players we have a bit of value.