American Express Championship

0-13, -17pts (!)

What a terrible week!  In fact it's been a nightmare for a months now. The profit for the season was at over 100pts at one stage, since then there hasn't been a single bet come in and we are now after this week firmly in the red!  This is seriously annoying me as I know these are all good value plays and we have just hit a (very long) bad run.

Anyway, I doubt if anyone is following these tips at all anymore, but I'll certainly not be giving up, if only to prove to myself that things will turn around.

Putting up some hedging lays just in case

Lay Appleby 10pts @ 2 - unmatched

Lay Appleby 20pts @1.5 - unmatched

Lay Toms 10pts @1.5 - unmatched

Lay Toms 10pts @2 - unmatched

Lay Toms 20pts @1.5 - unmatched

Lay Ames 10pts @3 - unmatched

Lay Ames 10pts @2 - unmatched

Lay Ames 20pts @1.5 - unmatched

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Update after round 3:

Back Stuart Appleby 1.5pts @44

Appleby's performance this week seems very reminiscent of what he did way back in January in the Mercedes. In both events a poor opening 74 left him looking out of it after 1 round, then low scoring on Friday and Saturday put him 4 shots back going in to Sunday. In Hawaii he went on to hold off the challenges of top class players such as Woods, Singh (and Els) to win and there is no reason to think he can't do so again here at a very generous looking price.

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Further Update after round 2:

A windy weekend is expected, so I'm going to go for a couple of players who could thrive in the conditions.

Back Stephen Ames 1pt @ 80

Back Fred Funk 1pt @50

Back when Ames played the European tour he was always one to look out for when the wind started to blow. He shot a great 64 yesterday to get himself right back in this. Funk's win at Sawgrass earlier in the season was largely due to him handling the conditions better than most when the wind came in the final round. He's only 2 off the lead here and hence 50 looks a big price.

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Update after round 2:

Back Tim Clark to finish in the top five 1.5pts @20/1 at Centrebet

A very tightly packed leaderboard and few shots made or lost will take you a long way in either direction. Clark came through to place from further back than this at this stage in the US Open, and 20/1 looks very good odds on him repeating that feat.

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Update after round 1:

Back Ben Crane to win 0.5pts @190

With only Bradley Dredge finding more fairways than him yesterday it was just a mediocre putting performance which let Crane down. As one of the best putters on the PGA tour this season that hopefully won't continue for the rest of the week. He certainly knows how to win and if you look past Monty he is only 3 shots from second place.

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Update:

Wow! Finally some liquidity in the top 5 market at Betfair, and some tempting prices in this reduced size field.

Back Steve Elkington to finish in the top 5 1pt @28

Back Mark Calcavecchia to finish in the top 5 1pt @30

Back Nick O'Hern to finish in the top 5 1pt @24

Back Ben Crane to finish in the top 5 1.5pts @15

Back Justin Leonard to finish in the top 5 1.5pts @15

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There aren't many players this week where the betfair price is significantly higher than the highest bookie price. With a reduced field, e/w and place betting at 1/4 the win odds is even better value than usual so I feel it is best to go to the books ahead of Betfair for this one.

Back David Toms 1.5pts e/w @50/1 available generally

Back Jose Maria Olazabal to finish in the top five 1.5pts @22/1 at Betfred

Back Bart Bryant to finish in the top five 1pt @30/1 at Centrebet, Expekt