American Express Championship

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Donald 11th
Perry 32nd
Leonard 46th

Not even a sniff!

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Luke Donald to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Looking at higher-odds players with the top-5 in the World Rankings struggling this week. Els and Goosen are not playing, Woods has ribs and back injuries, while Singh and Mickelson are a long way from the peak of their game. But given the layout of the course, it would have been two-time U.S. Open winner, Retief Goosen, who would have been strongly fancied. The course owner has aspirations for Harding Park to be a future U.S. Open site and the course - short at only 7,100 yards - is set up that way. The fairways have been narrowed and cut to only 1/2 inch, the rough doubled in length and the greens will be hard and very fast. Only the intervention of the weather will stop this becoming a stern test of golf. That leads perfectly to Luke Donald whose 'fairways and greens' approach will be ideal this week. His form is good, having led the BMW International Open heading into the final round and finishing 4th in the European Masters in his last two events, and he also held the lead after the second round of the last WGC event, the NEC Invitational in August. He doesn't convert enough of his chances to win, but the odds more than compensate for this and this is certainly a course that suits.

Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It is difficult to categorise Perry to the same degree. He ranks inside the top-10 in driving distance on the PGA Tour, but has finished 2nd, 1st, 12th and 1st at the Colonial in the last four years, a course of similar setup and length. The key is that he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation on Tour and can adjust his game to suit virtually any course. That can explain why he hasn't finished outside the top-25 in any event since May and that could be put down to a letdown from winning the Colonial the week before. In his last competitive game, he beat Mark Hensby 4&3 in the singles in the Presidents Cup, in his last strokeplay event, he closed with a 63 to finish 7th in the Buick Championship and in his last WGC event, he held the lead heading into the final round. These looks large odds for such a player.

Justin Leonard to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
The last time Perry finished outside the top-25, the St Jude Classic, Leonard was a wire-to-wire winner that week after opening with a 62. And there is evidence that he is returning to that form again. Since finishing 19th in the NEC Invitational, he has finished 15th in the Deutsche Bank Championship and 9th in the 84 Lumber Classic and importantly in terms of this week, he ranked 17th, 11th and 3rd in driving accuracy in those events. At the 84 Lumber Classic, not only did he hit 82% of fairways, but 69% of greens in regulation to rank 5th that week. He is playing well, has a game well-suited to this course setup and was a winner in California earlier this year (Bob Hope Chrysler Classic). He is also the third selection that ranks inside the top-10 in Scoring Average on the Tour this year so odds of 50/1 and above do represent value.