Accenture Match Play Championship

Spread plays

Final Summary: If all weeks could be like this, a profit of 21.25 Pts gained on 0.25pt staking is much more than we could have really anticipated when starting out as a straight bet on Cink had a 21pt maximum return if he won. The fact though both he and Scott got through the early rounds gave us the opportunity to trade our way successfully to this point.

Pre Round Four Trades:

We are now in a position of strength in this event and by some strategic placing of bets we can get ourselves into a stronger position. In my opinion the winner of the Scott/Toms clash is a far more accomplished player, especially at the business end of an event, than Poulter or O' Hern. Therefore by backing Toms we have at least one player on that side of the draw in the semi where either will be clear favourite. By backing Di' Marco we protect the Cink buy and also have a certain semi finalist in the other half. Finally Goosen is the likeliest winner of the event now with the draw the way it has panned out. By backing at the prices shown we are in a good position where our worst scenario on all trades is if Allenby gets past Goosen and Di'Marco/Cink and faces either Poulter or O' Hern in the final. Any other final pairing will see us make a profit by varying amounts dependant on who. Our preferred option is of course a Goosen win in the Q/F and Scott or Toms getting to the final. That will guarantee a fair profit on the week.

Buy Retief Goosen Championship Index at 55 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. M/U 50, Loss 1.37 Pts

Buy David Toms Championship Index at 53 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. M/U 100, Profit 11.75 Pts

Buy Chris Di' Marco Championship Index at 49 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. M/U 75, Profit 6.5 Pts

Update: The change in strategy at the start of the day has worked ok as Scott easily defeated Howell and then Garcia to reach the QF where he will face David Toms who disposed of Mickelson. He is now guaranteed 33 points in the scoring system and that is 1.5pts minimum for us. Cink won at the 20th to also ensure a min. 33pt M/U. This means we now have 4.38 pts banked in this event and with a pre event max. risk of 4 pts as the betting plan we can be a little adventurous tomorrow.

Pre Round Two Trades:

Update: Cink has won 2&1 so we are on a free bet now for the remainder of his involvement in the event, although of course at the stakes it is not a life changing result were he to go on to win. He faces Love who posted the biggest win of the day and any success there leads to a match v. Di'Marco or Haas, who defeated no. 1 seed Singh. Scott has won 2&1 as well and plays Garcia in arguably the top match of R3.

It became common knowledge after I submitted the Cink bet that he had in fact spent the most part of last week in bed with flu. Whereas that can affect you in a 4 round event, there is sufficient time to recover between rounds. This week we have, thanks to the weather, a situation where Cink will have to play 36 holes now every day if he reaches the last 4. With that in mind I suggest we transfer our bet. By opposing him to half the stake placed before R1 we break even exactly if he loses against Lehman but have a reduced stake free bet on him the rest of the way. It does mean that we now have a slightly greater risk (4.25pts) on the other bet if both lost but I feel it is a stronger position.

Sell Stewart Cink Championship Index at 22 with Spreadex for 0.125 pts. M/U 33, Loss 1.37 Pts

Buy Adam Scott Championship Index at 27 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. M/U 33, Profit 1.5 Pts
My worry with Scott pre-event was that there may have been a reaction his "win" last week where although he got a trophy, he only got 3/4 of the ranking points, it did not get him his ticket to Hawaii next January nor was it considered an "official" win. However, he seems to have put the whole weeks events behind him and has moved on, disposing of Immelman in R1 and now has David Howell who won 6&5 over Maruyama. A win over Howell sees Kelly or Garcia up next.

Pre Round One Trades:

Update: Cink won his R1 match 2up. We will look tomorrow and see what his updated price is. Because of the weather delays though they intend to get the last 32 and last 16 matches in tomorrow, so if we do not trade beforehand we need to let the bet run in the hope he reaches the last 8. He plays Lehman and if successful Love or Westwood.

Buy Stewart Cink Championship Index at 16 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. M/U 33, Profit 4.25 Pts

This event can be a bit of a lottery so rather than risk a lot of the 40+ points we have accumulated this year so far we will risk 10% of that on what I feel is the best price on offer throughout the 4 firms this week. Cink plays Funk in R1 who has a 0 from 5 record round here and with his short distance may be affected more than most by the conditions. From there on in you can only second guess his opponents but we do know in R2 it would either be Choi or Lehman and then moving on to one of Westwood, Flesch, Love or Riley. To clear the buy quote he has to win two rounds but of course the gain from going past this increases greatly up to 100 points were he to win.

Cink himself has struggled in this event but you can make that argument for all bar Woods and to a lesser extent Darren Clarke. Two wins and four defeats in 6 matches suggests he doesn't like the course but in his strokeplay event he played here, albeit in 1998, he finished 6th. We are risking 4 pts and that is all I am prepared to risk here so if Cink can get past Funk, I will have another look and see if we can make some more to add to the pot.