Spread Picks - WGC |
Tipster: Andy |
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Summary: 11 Bets, Wins 8, Losses 3, Profit
15.88 Pts.
Round Four Trades
Sell
Retief Goosen over Zach Johnson 18H MB at 5 with
Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U
-19, Profit 4.8 Pts
The loss of Woods and Mickelson yesterday show that in this format prices as
high as 5, especially this far into the event where the player has consecutive
wins to his credit, are value. Johnson has played well for his wins, although of
course so has Goosen. A fair price would be around 3-4.
Sell
Padraig Harrington over Davis Love 18H MB at 0 with Cantor Spreadfair
for 0.2 Pts M/U -13, Profit 2.47 Pts
Although we don't take a great deal of notice of what has
gone before in this event, as each match is different, Harrington has openly
admitted it should be Singh in the QF. Apart from that, and more importantly,
Love just seems to be the better matchplay player of the two.
Round Three Trades
Buy Zach Johnson over Shingo Katayama 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts
M/U 22, Profit 3.88 Pts
The “Japanese cowboy” has so far beaten 2 European players but now comes up against American Johnson, who is slowly coming into form again after a barren spell.
Sell Phil Mickelson over David Howell 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts
M/U -19, Profit 4.6 Pts
Totally based on price, given the format involved 4 seems quite high a price against a player in the World’s Top 15. Mickelson, of course, should be favourite but 4 is a little too high.
Round Two Trades
Like yesterday, we are trading good prices but any additional reasoning is given after each match.
Buy David Howell over Scott Verplank 18H MB at 0.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.2 Pts M/U 19, Profit 3.53 Pts
Howell yesterday won for us although made heavy work of it after being 3 up after 3 only to win in on the 22nd. Verplank went further to the 26th in beating Westwood in a real end to end tussle. I feel this type of format will suit Howell more and therefore would make it a slightly bigger favourite than he is.
Buy Zach Johnson over Sean O’Hair at 2 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2.2 Pts
We opposed O’ Hair yesterday and will do so again today. Johnson took the scalp of Furyk in his match with both O’Hair and Zach shooting just under par which was enough to win both matches. On 2006 form Johnson has a 30th, 49th and MC in three attempts which is poor but still better than the results for O’Hair noted below.
Sell Chad Campbell over Henrik Stenson at 0 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.2 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.6 Pts
Campbell has a good record round here getting to the L16 twice so has won 5 of 7 matches now here but Stenson has improved above all recognition and it could just be value to get with him off of a level start.
Round One Trades
Buy David Howell over Steve Elkington at 4 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts. M/U 10, Profit 1.2 Pts
Elkington has lost in R1 in the two occasions he has played here whereas Howell managed one win before elimination in his one visit. You could argue both players’ careers are going in a different direction and possibly 4 is a couple of points too low.
Buy Fred Couples over Sean O’ Hair at 4 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U -10, Loss 2.8 Pts
A poor finish on Sunday may affect Couples but there is no denying he finished in the Top 5 and that is far greater than anything debutant O’ Hair has achieved this season. Last week was O’Hair’s first cut made of 2006 but even then a closing 77 on Sunday propelled him down the field.
Sell Padraig Harrington over Rod Pampling at 3 (spread free) with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 22, Loss 3.8 Pts
Similar to Mickelson, one QF is Harrington’s best here with 2 from 5 1st round exits, and although Pampling is 0 from 1 round here maybe shouldn’t be as big an underdog as the 3 you can trade at Spreadfair or the 3 using Spreadex’s “spread free” option.
Buy Luke Donald over Richard Green at 4 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 16, Profit 2.4 Pts
I quite fancy Green for this tournament but as I said above we are trading prices and Donald should beat Green and the probability of this isn’t reflected in the quotes. A good L16 place last year was a fair debut and his form this year, three top 25’s from three is good although two thirds in a row on the other side of the world is arguably better from Green. All in all, 4 is fair.
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