Spread Picks - WGC Events

Summary: 5 Bets, 2 Wins, 3 Losses. Loss 2.7 Pts

Bet 1 - Buy Jerry Kelly over Paul Mcginley 18H MB at 2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U -13, Loss 4.5 Pts
In the last 6 years, McGinley has appeared in 21 PGA events, with 3 Top 20's and 10 missed cuts and may be priced low because of a 3rd place on the course. His other results here though are 58, 46, 66 in the same time span. He is paired with the rejuvenated Kelly who has 6 Top 20's in eleven US soil starts. Kelly should be a higher favourite than he is.

Bet 2 - Sell Hunter Mahan over Henrik Stenson 18H MB at 1.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 7.95 Pts
Going to go against all known wisdom here and adopt the long term view. Stenson is in the World's Top 10 and until recently was in fair form until he took time off to be with his wife and new baby. In the events he has played since he came back, he has missed a cut at the Open and basically disqualified himself after a poor R2 in Germany last week, (he had started though with a respectable 70). He has two wins this year and 4 further Top 10's but is being priced heavily on what happened last week rather than that factor just being built into the price along with all other known information. He faces Mahan who has 4 top 10's in a row including a win and is in a rich vein of form. However there are 44 places between them on the World Rankings, and Stenson has a 13th and 31st on the course whereas it is Mahan's debut. All of this points to Stenson possibly being slight favourite, however you can get a 1.5pt start.
(please note i originally typed this as a "buy". this was a typing error, we are looking to oppose Mahan, as the explanation explains.)

Bet 3 - Sell Angel Cabrera over Vaughn Taylor 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -13, Profit 5.7 Pts
In 8 R1 matches in the States over the last year, Taylor leads 5-3 and has proceeded to lose 6 of the 8 matches. However, we are betting R1 only and 6 is a fairly big start for Cabrera to give up. Both excelled here last year with Cabrera 4th and Taylor 18th and we should take this offer.

Bet 4 - Buy J.J. Henry over Anders Hansen 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Loss 5.7 Pts
Henry leads 5-1 in events and managed to beat Hansen by 9 strokes last time out in Carnoustie. Hansen tried his luck on this tour early this year and 22nd was his best finish in 10 starts. He came back to Europe and proceeded to win at Wentworth. The fact this match is in the States should have a bigger bearing on the price than it has.

Bet 5 - Sell Niclas Fasth over Stuart Appleby 18H MB at 1.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U -31, Profit 9.75 Pts
Opposing Fasth on US soil has been profitable over the years and although he is possibly not great value against Di'Marco as his form is suspect, taking Appleby in the other available bet should be played. There can be no doubt that Appleby is in form. Finishes of 3rd at the AT&T National followed 2nd in Houston and Top 10 at Augusta, he may be the underdog though as he missed the cut at The Open. Fasth's form tailed off slightly after Top 10's at 4 events in a row but for this bet we have to study US soil form exclusively. Fasth's 4th in the US Open and 6th in Miami bucked a trend of always failing in America but looking at it long term Appleby leads 4-2 in strokeplay events and he should be the favourite on US soil.

Spread Picks - WGC

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

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