Spread Picks - WGC Events

Summary: Bets: 6, Wins 1, Losses 5. Loss 10.05 Pts.

Bet 1 - Sell Henrik Stenson over Zach Johnson R1 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.1 Pts
Bet 2 - Sell Aaron Baddeley over Shingo Katayama R1 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.1 Pts
Bet 3 - Sell Jim Furyk over Brett Quigley R1 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 2.7 Pts
Bet 4 - Sell Paul Casey over Mike Weir R1 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.7 Pts
There is one over-riding reason for all 4 bets here and that is price. All four favourites are deservedly so, they are all better players. However, the scoring system in matchplay dictates that the volatility isn't as great as in strokeplay. Whereas MU's of 25 and 28 are common normally, 25+ M/U's happen less than half in matchplay matches than they do in strokeplay. The maximum M/U is 40 or -40 which would only come about if a player won the match on the 10th hole and if a match is won on an extra hole the winner has a M/U of 10.

Bet 5 - Buy 6 Player Accumulator at 8.5 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 20, Profit 3.45 Pts
This is a bet using the facility "My Super Bankers" on Sporting Index's site. It gives you the opportunity to back or oppose a list of players with an additional bonus added to the M/U if they all win. In the case of a choice of 6 players it is 150 points. In addition, 10 points are added if a backed player wins by 4 or more holes. Therefore, if any of our choices win by 4&3 or better we make a small profit with the small chance of winning 150+ points if all 6 players win their respective matches. By doing this bet this way we risk 2.55 points with the chance of a big return without the volatility of betting on all 6 individually. Admittedly, it's a very small chance that we get all 6 winning, as low as being worth 4 points out of the possible 150, but we have the additional chance of a return on a 4 hole win, so on this list of players I would pitch it around 10. The players to back are:

Lucas Glover, Carl Pettersson, Mike Weir, Stuart Appleby, Ian Poulter and Stephen Ames in their respective matches.

R2

Bet 6 - Sell Geoff Ogilvy over Jose Maria Olazabal 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts.M/U 16, Loss 3.9 Pts
A poor day yesterday with all matches losing although we made a profit on thw accumulator. Today, we oppose a player who has won his last 7 matchplay 2-balls. current champion Ogilvy beat Stricker yesterday a lot easier that Olly beat Goydos but that seems to have been factored into this price along with his unblemished record. There is fair value in getting a 3pt start on this scoring system

Spread Picks - WGC

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

Accenture Match Play Championship