Stake 3pts Casey to beat Ames -110 @ Five Dimes Stake 3pts Casey to beat Weir -105 @ The Greek Casey has a decent record in WGC events and if the distraction of playing with Tiger early on is not too much then there is every likelihood that he will perform well again this week. He has finishes of 16th and 8th from his two previous starts here, is long anough off the tee to cope with the demands of this course and although is early season form is not entirely sparkling he has shown glimpses of form. His current form is better than Ames however who has shown little since his second start of the season and Ames's previous record here is consistent if uninspiring with finishes of 38-27-27-20-28. Indeed his record in all WGC events are littered with finishes in the mid-20's to mid-30's and the h2h record with Casey in WGC events reads 7-1 in Casey's favour. I make Casey around a -125 shot to beat that. Similarly with Weir his current form is distinctly average as is his previous record here. Over the past 12 months Casey leads the h2h's 8-2 in all events and in all WGC events Casey leads 9-3. Again I make Casey a -125 shot to take Weir with conditions suiting him here. Casey beaten by Ames by 8 Casey beaten by Weir by 7
Stake 3pts Garcia to beat Furyk +100 @ Carib Stake 3pts Ogilvy to beat Furyk -105 @ Centrebet Garcia let us down last week when only managing a tie in this match-up but I'm willing to take on nFuryk again at this slightly bigger price. In last years event Garcia finished 3rd and putted pretty well (ranked 15th) during the week. There are little questions marks over his overall current form and his record in WGC events is impressive with ten top-10 finishes from twenty two starts. Furyk looked good last week for the first two rounds but his scoring and his stats for the final two rounds was really rather poor. Furyk's record at the Dorl is good but Garcia's record over the last 12 months against Furyk is 9-3 in his favour, 10-5 in his favour in WGC events and 2-1 in his favour at the Doral. Ogilvy finishing tied third in this event last year and his recent performances suggest that another decent finish is due again this week. After a slow start to the season his form has picked up considerably in recent weeks and his recent stats have been particularly impressive. Has had a few top ten finishes in WGC events in the past and his record in these events is slightly better than Furyks. Not a lot divides them on overall form but the state of Ogilvy's current game is far healthier than Furyks which makes him the value bet here. Garcia beaten by Furyk by 7 Ogilvy beat Furyk by 1
Stake 2pts Mahan to beat Leonard -115 @ Carib Coming into this season Mahan's record in Florida was less than impressive, to be honest it was downright poor. But in his two starts in the region this season he has had two decent finishes, 23rd at the PODS and 6th last week. He looks to be a very streaky player so it may benefit us to side with him when his game is in such fine form and ignore that past Florida record. And his game is in fine shape at the moment, in fact last week he made more birdies than Tiger. Leonard's game has improved no end this season, the prospect of the Ryder Cup in September is no doubt driving him on somewhat, but his recent finsihes have tailed off slightly primarily due to some poor greenside play. His previous record at The Doral is quite poor as is his record in WGC events, despite his 4th place finish at the Matchplay. Mahan beaten by Leonard by 2
Stake 3pts Singh to beat Scott -110 @ The Greek, BetFred, Blue Square Stake 3pts Stenson to beat Scott -110 @ Centrebet, Intertops Scott is a player that I'm happy to oppose this week. His recent form is patchy with a win in Qatar, followed by average displays in the Northern Open and the World Matchplay and last time out he put in a poor showing in India. His record at the Doral reads mc-61 and his record in WGC events is particularly poor. His average FP in all starts over the past couple of seasons is 24.4 but in WGC events, many of which have reduced fields his average FP is 31.4 and it reads even worse if you remove his World Matchplay record where he has three top-10 finishes. Vijay continued his good form at Bay Hill last week with his recent record reading 3-5-36-2. And this could easily have been much more impressive if he hadn't played so badly midway through his third round last week, he would arguably in a position that not even Tiger would have caught him. His record at the Doral is also impressive with top-10 finishes in around 50% of his starts here. With his game in such good form and conditions to suit he should be a strong favourite against Scott. Stenson is arguably in the best form of his life with his 2008 record reading 28-2-2-6-3. And it should certainly pay to side with him for the moment and possibly until the summer months when his game has in the past deteriorated quite badly. He finished a respectable 19th here last season and his length off the tee should be an asset on this course. His h2h record over the past 12 months shows Scott holding a 5-9 lead but in Florida Stenson holds a 2-1 lead and in WGC events Stenson holds a 5-2 lead so I would make Stenson a -120 or -125 favourite here. Singh beat Scott by 4 Stenson beaten by Scott by 12
Further Play
Stake 2pts Z Johnson to beat Choi +110 @ Coral Johnson's recent form figures aren't that impressive and it's not exactly clear when looking at his stats as they are decent enough being highly ranked for DA and GIR most weeks. I'm hoping that a return to the Doral course will spark a resurgence in his game. He has an impressive record here with finishes of 3-15-9 and his record in WGC events is pretty decent. Choi returns this week from South Korea, where he hardly put in a great showing, to a course where he hasn't shown much form in the past. And his record in WGC events is also comparatively poor. +110 is a big price for someone of Johnson's class against Choi who has a number of question marks around his performance this week. Johnson beat Choi by 2
