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18-Hole Match Picks - WGC

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Matchups

 
 
World Matchplay
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10-7; +2.43pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt)

Stewart Cink to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -131 @ Pinnacle  WON 4&&3
Big difference between these two in this event - both have played each time in the last four years and whereas Cink has won seven matches, Jimenez has won only twice. Their head-to-head also shows a 4-0 record to Cink over the past 12 months

Aaron Baddeley to beat Mark Calcavecchia -145 @ Carib  WON 4&2
Baddeley won two matches on his debut last year and was only defeated by the eventual champion, Henrik Stenson. He looks set to progress well again this year and should start with victory again Calc who has struggled for form this year

Hunter Mahan to beat Richard Sterne -121 @ Pinnacle  WON 4&3
Both players making their debut and Sterne is a great prospect, but he's never brought that over to American soil. With Mahan showing some form again last week, he should beat Sterne with ease

Stuart Appleby to beat Tim Clark -142 @ Pinnacle  WON 3&2
Neither player has a good record in this event, but are at polar opposites in terms of form - whereas Appleby's last four finishes have been 5th, 8th, 4th and 7th, Clark has missed all three cuts this year

Niclas Fasth to beat Richard Green -137 @ Pinnacle  WON 6&5
Opposing Green who has exited in the first round in each of the last three years and in 18 starts on American soil over the last 4 years has finished in the top-25 only once

 

Round 2 plays (1pt)

Parlay/Accumulator: Tiger Woods to beat Arron Oberholser AND Adam Scott to beat Woody Austin -106 @ Five Dimes  Scott LOST 19th hole
Can't take either of them at the odds quoted for their individual matches, but there looks better value in the parlay. It shouldn't be a contest between Woods and Oberholser, while Scott was very impressive yesterday (6-under-par) and should beat Austin who is not great under pressure

Luke Donald to beat Angel Cabrera -110 @ William Hill  LOST 2&1
Cabrera has played in this event six times, losing in the 1st round three times and in the 2nd round on the other three occasions. He will facea much tougher opponent today in Luke Donald who has been in better form this year and has failed to get beyond the 2nd round only once

Nick O'Hern to beat Rod Pampling -110 @ William Hill  LOST 5&4
Similar story here: Pampling has played three times, losing in the 1st round twice and the 2nd round once; O'Hern has played four times, reaching the quarter-final three times. Backing the better matchplayer

Henrik Stenson to beat Trevor Immelman -130 @ Unibet and The Greek  WON 25th hole
Backing the defending champion who, although he put himself under some pressure yesterday after trying to coast to victory, he had been 6-under-par after 8 holes and 4-up, so any kind of repeat of that form will easily see off Immelman

Paul Casey to beat Bradley Dredge -150 @ ToteSport  WON 2&1
Dredge claimed a notable scalp yesterday in beating Rory Sabbatini, but I fear there may be a letdown today as a result. And with Casey shooting 63 yesterday in a high quality match against Robert Karlsson, he should bring more than enough form & confidence to win this match

Charles Howell to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 available generally  LOST 1 hole
After that finish to Howell's round yesterday, how can he possibly fail to carry that momentum into today's match. I'd have Howell the favourite in this match anyway, but those last three holes are the turning points that event winners tend to look back upon

 

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Stewart Cink to beat Colin Montgomerie -120 @ SkyBet, VCbet and Paddy Power  WON 4&2
Monty made heavy work beating a poor Howell yesterday - he was over-par to the turn and yet was leading the match. Cink has been far more impressive this week and deserves to be the favourite in this match

Steve Stricker to beat Angel Cabrera -111 @ ToteSport  LOST 4&3
Cabrera was taken to the penultimate hole by a player who was over-par yesterday in perfect scoring conditions. And while Stricker has been taken to extra holes in each of the last two rounds, it has been because of his opponents have been playing well - he has shot 67-65. Cabrera should be an easier opponent

Boo Weekly to beat Woody Austin +105 @ Five Dimes  LOST 3&2
Six-under-par against Garcia yesterday without even knowing the rules of matchplay; Weekley is quite an unbelievable character and looks set to be a surprise chalenger for this title and should beat his inferior opponent today

 

Quarter-final play (1pt)

Henrik Stenson to beat Woody Austin -143 @ Unibet  WON 2 holes
He may have been extremely fortunate to beat Immelman in the 2nd round when he again faltered in the back nine and started to pull his irons, but his putting touch never left him and that was also shown yesterday when he beat the widely-tipped Byrd and shot 6-under-par in the process. According to the commentators, he has yet to miss a putt inside 5-feet and that makes the "Ice Man" the perfect matchplayer. He should make it to the semi-finals

 

Semi-final play (1pt)

Stewart Cink to beat Justin Leonard -110 @ Pinnacle  WON 3&2
Leonard may have been undervalued throughout this week, but Cink was playing the far better golf this morning and the extra rest should help

 

Final play (1pt)

Stewart Cink to beat Tiger Woods [+3.5 holes handicap] -110 @ The Greek  LOST 8&7
I'm not confident enough to back Cink to win outright, but I do think that he will provide another stern test to Tiger, who could easily have lost in the 1st round to J.B. Holmes and in the 3rd round to Aaron Baddeley. Tiger has not blown away any of his other opponents and in his three final appearances in this event, he lost 4&3 to Darren Clarke in 2000, won 2&1 against David Toms in 2002 and won 3&2 against Davis Love in 2003. With the same handicap, it would have been a winning wager on the opponent every time. Scoring-wise, there is no difference between these two players against par this week, so unless Cink freezes under the pressure of playing against Tiger, I can't see this being a blowout