5-2; +2.42pts 

Round 1 play (1pt):

Stewart Cink to beat Richard Sterne -123 @ Expekt  WON 19th hole
A new course so a cautious approach to the 1st round. One that stands out is to oppose Sterne with Cink. Sterne may have been in good form in South Africa where he won twice in December, but he has not played in a Tour event since the Africa Open five weeks ago and his record in PGA/WGC events is not too impressive: a best finish of 21st in nine starts, including a 1st round exit in his previous appearance in this event last year (4&3 to Hunter Mahan). Cink may not be in the best form, but he has lost in the first round just once in the last five years and reached the final last year.

Round 2 play (1pt):

Jim Furyk to beat Martin Kaymer -110 @ Stan James and Ladbrokes  WON 4&2
Two players with Arizona connections - Furyk is a University of Arizona alumnus and Kaymer spends his winters in this State - but Furyk should have the experience and the game to prevail today. He recorded 5 birdies over 17 holes in his win over Anders Hansen yesterday while Kaymer had only three in his full round of 18 holes against Stuart Appleby. And for all the good form that Kaymer displayed in the Middle East last month and his winter practice sessions in Arizona, he has always struggled in the U.S.: he lost in the first round in his debut last year and in his six subsequent events in the U.S., he has a best finish of 53rd. Furyk may have started the season later than usual and not be in quite the form that he should be at this stage of the season, but he still ranks 1st in scrambling on Tour and if conditions continue to be dry, this week will be all about the short game.

Round 3 play (1pt):

Jim Furyk to beat Ross Fisher -133 @ Unibet  LOST 4&3
Some excerpts from Fisher's interview yesterday: " I felt quite fortunate to come through yesterday against Robert [Allenby]", "Fortunately for me he [Pat Perez] was a little bit off today", "I've found it quite difficult to adjust. I've still misclubbed a few times trying to play that ball that is going an extra bit further. It is very tricky." He is certainly playing better than he had done previously this year, but Furyk will not provide him with such an off-day and he will also have to face some pretty vocal crowd support for the University of Arizona graduate, particularly now that they won't have Tiger to follow.

Quarter-Final plays (1pt):

Paul Casey to beat Sean O'Hair -147 @ Unibet  WON 4&3
O'Hair defeated a poor Ian Poulter yesterday by being only 2-under-par at the time. I realy can't see him competing with Casey on this course. I'd be very surprised if the Englishman was not in tomorrow's final.

Ross Fisher to beat Justin Leonard +100 @ Ladbrokes and WSEX  WON 2&1
Leonard is another who has failed to impress me this week and even his short putting looked suspect yesterday. This is certainly the weakest quarter-final and with Fisher havig a knack of facing opponents in poor form, he should have another today and progress to an all-English semi-final.

Semi-Final play (1pt):

Paul Casey to beat Ross Fisher -141 @ Pinnacle  WON 2&1
Sticking with my prediction that Casey will be in the final tomorrow. He may have been fortunate that O'Hair had been suffering from food poisoning overnight and so never really needed to be at his best to progress to the next round, but he will be fresher from having the longer rest and that may be important by the end of the day.

Final play (1pt):

Total holes over 33.5 -125 @ William Hill [also available @  SkyBet and VCbet]  LOST by 0.5
Ogilvy certainly played the better golf yesterday and as a former winner of this event deserves to be favourite. But Casey has also won a 'World Matchplay' title over a 36-hole final at Wentworth, has lived in Arizona for the last 12 years and has played far fewer holes so far this week than Ogilvy. Looking back at Ogilvy's matches shows that he won in extra holes in the first two rounds and was taken to the 17th hole in his next two rounds. He was tied with six holes to play in the semi-final and looked set for another marathon match, but for yesterday's late birdie/eagle blitz against Cink. Ogilvy has been doing just enough to beat his opponents and the same can be said for Casey yesterday. There may actually be some value @ +130 with WSEX for the Englishman, but the best odds appear to be for a fairly close final. Even looking beyond Casey and Ogilvy's performances this week, it is worth noting that seven of ten World Matchplay finals have finished after the 33rd hole, including two by a far more dominant Tiger Woods.