|
18-Hole Match Picks - WGC |
|
|
3-2; +2.46pts 1st round play (2pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Charl Schwartzel +100 @ Bet365 and BetFred [available generally] LOST 2&1
Schwartzel is certainly in the better form - he won back-to-back events in South Africa last month - but that was in his home country. On American courses, Schwartzel has not fared so well: he has played in 20 events in the U.S., including five last year, and has yet to finish in the top-15. Mahan may be the underdog because of his indifferent form this year, but this is matchplay and this should suit him: he was the top points scorer on the U.S. side in the 2008 Ryder Cup and lost only one match in the 2009 Presidents Cup. In terms of this event, he has been unfortunate to be knocked out in the 2nd round both times, but last year was against a much better opponent in Rory McIlroy (he lost by 1 hole) and in 2008, he took Steve Stricker to seven extra holes before finally succombing. 2nd round play (2pts): Thongchai Jaidee to beat Robert Karlsson +150 @ Stan James and Bet365 [available generally] WON 4&3
Karlsson may have been 5-under-par through nine holes yesterday, but thereafter he looked every part the player who has never progressed beyond the first round in this event and he was very fortunate to win the 20th hole against Sabbatini yesterday. By contrast, Jaidee had a very easy 5&4 win over Ross Fisher without needing to play particularly well. He comes into event on the back of a 3rd place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic and that form, tied with Karlsson's poor matchplay record, makes a mockery of these odds. 3rd round play (2pts): Luke Donald to beat Oliver Wilson -137 @ Unibet [available generally] LOST 20th hole
Once again opposing a player who went to extra holes in the previous round with someone who had an easy win. There may also be a letdown effect after Wilson defeated Rory McIlroy yesterday, but in truth he was only level-par after 18 holes, so no matter the scalp, it was really McIlroy who lost that match rather than Wilson winning it. By contrast, Donald has been 4-under-par and 5-under-par in his first two rounds and comes into this event on the back of 2nd and 16th place finishes on the PGA Tour in the last two weeks. He may struggle against some of the bigger-hitting players in this format, but not against Wilson. Quarter-Final play (2pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Retief Goosen -106 @ Expekt [available generally] WON 4&3
Villegas has secured some notable scalps in the in-form Dustin Johnson and multiple-winner Geoff Ogilvy, as well as Ben Crane, without even being taken to the 18th hole. Quite the opposite for Goosen who was taken to the 20th hole by Ernie Els and needed a birdie on the last hole to defeat Nick Watney yesterday. The edge should be with the younger, fresher player. 3rd/4th Place Playoff play (2pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Sergio Garcia +110 @ Five Dimes, VCbet and Coral [available generally] WON 5&4
Garcia has never progressed beyond the Quarter-Finals in this event and on this week's form, he was lucky to reach the Semis ... in his previous five matches, he has been 2-under-par, 1-under-par, 2-under-par, 2-under-par and 2-over-par plus two concessions. Villegas has played the far better golf this week and even he had to return this morning for a resumption of his epic Semi-Final match against Casey, I can't see him feeling more fatigued that Garcia. It will have been disappointing to have lost that match on the sixth extra hole, but surely Garcia will be more defalted after his humiliating 7&6 thrashing by Poulter. Garcia's attitude towards a 'consolation' match may have been debatable at the best of times, after that loss to Poulter I'd make Villegas the favourite here.
|
