HSBC Champions

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1-3; -8.00pts  (system plays: 15-15-5)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Paul Casey to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Pinnacle  [also available @ 5Dimes, Unibet, The Greek and WSEX]  LOST by 1
Two players in good form - Casey has finished 2nd and 4th in his last two starts and in the top-25 in his last five, while Kaymer won three starts in a row from the PGA Championship before finishing 21st at Valderrama last week - but it is the Englishman who has the far better form in this region: whereas Kaymer has missed four of eight cuts in Asia (two top-10 finishes), Casey has won twice and finished in the top-10 in eight of 14 starts in China (plus one 11th place finish). Add in Casey's 1st round h2h score of 8-2-2 against Kaymer in 2010 and there is certainly value at plus odds in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fujita tb Johnson -105 (L); Watney tb Casey +100 (W); Casey tb Mahan -125 (L); Watney tb Ishikawa -161 (T); Watney tb Els -110 (T); Woods tb McIlroy -135 (W); Mickelson tb McIlroy -130 (W); Woods tb Westwood -120 (L); Harrington tb Ikeda -167 (L); Woods tb Els -130 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Ben Crane to beat Francesco Molinari +110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [also available @ Extrabet, Pinnacle and The Greek]  LOST by 1
With a record of six top-10 finishes from eight starts, Molinari clearly likes playing in China and he is the sole leader after the 1st round. However, he has not been entirely convincing when holding the first round lead on the European Tour in the past - he has been in this position three times previously and finished the 2nd round in 19th, 1st (albeit with a smaller lead) and 8th place - and there will be much more pressure with this being a WGC event. Crane is clearly playing well after winning the Asia Pacific Classic last week and, after an expected slow start after that win, he should score much better in the 2nd round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Appleby tb Manassero +140 (L); Villegas tb Fisher +135 (T); Lunde tb Fichardt +115 (T); Allenby tb Molinari E -120 (W); Bohn tb Ramsay +105 (L); Wiratchant tb Fichardt +105 (L); Harrington tb Oosthuizen -119 (W); Kim A tb Molinari E +115 (L); Presnell tb Junhasavasdikul -125 (W); Bohn tb Van Zyl -110 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Ross Fisher to beat Seung-Yul Noh -123 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Unibet and Extrabet]  WON by 2
Noh slipped down the leaderboard to 7th yesterday and while the teenager is undoubtedly a huge prospect, he may find it difficult to maintain his game in the top-10 of a WGC event at this stage of his career. Fisher's game from tee-to-green has been bettered only by Richie Ramsay this week and he looks set to maintain his good form and remain in contention longer than his opponent.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Donald tb Els -113 (W); Harrington tb Allenby -103 (W); Donald tb Westwood +100 (L); Woods tb Mickelson -124 (W); Molinari F tb Noh +100 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Ernie Els to beat Lee Westwood +100 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 6
Opposing Westwood as he rarely wins outside Europe - he did win the St Jude Classic in June, but that was the first time in over 10 years that he had won outside Europe (and the Middle East) - and backing Els who is under much less pressure being in 4th place, but six shots behind Molinari. Els also has a hugely impressive record in Asia - in 20 starts in this continent since 2006, he has finished in the top-10 85% of the time - so I can't see him finishing the event lower down the leaderboard than his current position.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Allenby tb Molinari F +105 (L); Allenby tb Goosen -105 (L); Jones tb Johnson -110 (W); Hansen tb Sim -105 (L); Haas tb Ishikawa -110 (W); Harrington tb Noh -120 (T); Harrington tb Fisher -110 (W); Woods tb McIlroy -125 (L); Allenby tb Green -122 (L); Els tb Fisher -133 (W)]