Bridgestone Invitational

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0-2; -4.48pts  (system plays: 9-4-6) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Martin Kaymer -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 2
Opposing Kaymer who appears to be having a post-Major-year letdown - he did win his season-opening event in Abu Dhabi, but has secured just two other strokeplay top-10 finishes this year. The causes of the 'post-Major-year letdown' are clear from his interview this week: "the last, let's say, three, four months, it has been ridiculous in Germany. There has been so much media around my person, about my family, about my personal life, about a lot." The scrutiny is only intensifying as he is one week away from defending his PGA Championship title, so this could easily be a difficult week, particularly as he averages 71.33 around Firestone (Kuchar averages 68.75). Since the start of last season, Kuchar leads Kaymer 9-2-1 h2h in strokeplay events in the U.S. and 8-3-1 h2h in round 1 in those events, so the value should be in opposing the PGA Champion this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Hanson tb Woodland +108 (T); Watson tb Woodland -111 (W); Toms tb Jacobson +100 (T); Casey tb Glover +110 (L); Jacobson tb Woodland -110 (W); Mickelson tb McIlroy +100 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Gary Woodland -110 @ Stan James  TIED
Difficult to argue against Jacobson's form - his last three starts have yielded finishes of 14th (U.S. Open), 1st (Travelers Championship) and 16th (British Open). He has beaten all but a few in very high quality fields and won on the PGA Tour in a lesser quality field. Woodland did play well last week, but was found wanting on the last day and that may have carried over to his disappointing first round. Such a big-hitting will be very hit-and-miss, but in a WGC event, it should be the more consistent and better quality player who should prevail.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Fowler tb Manassero -150 (W); Watney tb Watson -120 (T); Fowler tb Watson +105 (W); Garcia tb Goosen -129 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ Bet365 [available generally]  TIED
Can only see Stricker continuing his good form in round 3. He currently lies 13th and has finished in the top-20 in every one of his starts since February; McIlroy can't even claim that in either of his last two starts. Twice a winner in his last four starts and a top-10 finishes in each of the last two years here, McIlroy will need to play well to keep up with Stricker at the moment.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Furyk tb Manassero -110 (T); Atwal tb Larrazabal -105 (W); Goosen tb Watson +104 (T); Points tb Stallings +100 (T)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Nick Watney to beat Francesco Molinari -119 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 4
Molinari starts the final round in 14th place and this is his best performance for some time - he has missed his last two cuts on the European Tour and his last four cuts on the PGA Tour. On that basis, he appears less likely to continue his unexpected form into the final round than Watney who won last time out on the PGA Tour and ranks 7th in Final Round Scoring Average this year.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Fowler tb Day +110 (W); Scott tb Woodland -140 (W); Watney tb Watson -111 (L); Cink tb Baddeley -111 (L); Day tb Bradley -132 (W)]