HSBC Champions

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2-2; +2.10pts  (system plays: 9-9-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Nick Watney to beat Adam Scott +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet and Bet365]  LOST by 2
A matchup between two of this year's WGC champions, but I'll take Watney at plus odds for small stakes. He has performed better than Scott this year (3rd on the PGA Tour Money List; 1st in regular season FedEx Cup standings; 5th in scoring average) and he has shown that he can play well at this venue: two years ago he led this event after both the first and the second rounds and last year he finished ahead of Scott when he returned to this event.

Round 2 play (4pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Keegan Bradley +105 @ SkyBet  WON by 1
Opposing Bradley who has the sole lead after the first round. His record when leading after any round in any event is one win from five and in that win - the PGA Championship - he held the lead after 36 holes, but then lost it and dropped to 3rd after the next round. More recently, he held the first round lead after the Tour Championship, but then shot 71-72-70 to finish 11th of 30. In fact, he has not secured a single top-10 finish since his PGA Championsip, even in limited-field events such as the Playoffs and last week's SHanghai Masters. By contrast, Van Pelt has had three top-10 finishes over that period, including a win in the PGA Tour-sanctioned event last week, and has finished ahead of Bradley in 9 of their last 13 common events.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Jacobson tb Dyson -130 (W); Watney tb Molinari -120 (L); Watney tb Schwartzel -110 (L); Wilson tb Hansen -110 (L); Mahan tb Schwartzel +100 (W); Choi tb Hanson +100 (W); Baddeley tb Oosthuizen +100 (L); Byrd tb Larrazabal -125 (W); Casey tb Poulter -120 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Ernie Els to beat Alexander Noren -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
I was expecting a good week from Els. He had finished 4th last time out in the Frys.com Open and has a great record on this course and in China in general - 2nd and 4th in the last two years here, he holds the course record at Sheshan International and he has finished 1st, 5th and 6th in his three other events in China. An opening 75 has taken him out of this event, but he came back well with a 69 today and should continue his good play on this course. Noren struggled to a 75 today and is moving in the opposite direction on the leaderboard.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Rory McIlroy to beat Lee Westwood -120 @ WSEX [available generally]  WON by 5
How can you not back a player who has finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st in his last five starts and has finished in the top-5 in each of the last two years here. In that form, it is surprising that Westwood has finished ahead of him even the one time in their last seven common events. They both start the day in 4th place and while Westwood will again post a high finish, it is McIlroy who always looks more likely to win when in contention.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Jimenez tb Larrazabal -125 (L); Bradley tb Vegas -110 (L); Mahan tb Schwartzel -105 (L); Scott tb Oosthuizen -120 (L); Jacobson tb Oosthuizen -106 (W); Rose tb Dyson -111 (W); Kaymer tb Westwood +110 (W); Van Pelt tb Bradley +100 (W); Ikeda tb Kruger -110 (T); Jaidee tb Larrazabal -105 (L)]