World Matchplay

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5-2; +4.24pts  (system plays: 2-7-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Matteo Manassero -163 @ SkyBet, BlueSq and BetFred [available generally]  LOST 2&1
Backing a former winner of this event who, despite calling himself rusty at the start of the season, has finished 4th, 9th and 29th in three starts on the PGA Tour this year. In fact, it has been eight months since Stricker finished outside the top-30 in a PGA Tour event. For Manassero, he is making his debut and admits that he doesn't come across this type of course in Europe. He missed the cut by a long in his last Tour event in Dubai and, while he is a prodigious talent, he should struggle against a player of Stricker's experience.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Molinari F tb Moore -118 (L); Allenby tb Fisher +100 (L); Goosen tb Choi -120 (L)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Ross Fisher -127 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON 4&2
GMac may have a poor record in this event, but there is no better indication of his qualities as a matchplayer under pressure than Monty's decision to give him the anchor position in the Sunday singles when the Ryder Cup was in the balance. He responded with a world-class performance that day and his form since winning the U.S. Open (and the Celtic Manor Wales Open two weeks previously) has befitted such a Major Champion. His last seven starts, for example, have yielded finishes of 3rd, 5th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd. He is a worthy #4 in the World Rankings and he showed that yesterday in his easy 4&3 win over Heath Slocum. Fisher can be a dangerous opponent, but he collapsed when the pressure was on in his Ryder Cup singles match again Jeff Overton and his 10th place finish in Dubai last time out was his first top-10 finish in over six months.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kuchar tb Van Pelt -136 (L); Schwartzel tb Manassero -138 (L); Mahan tb Karlsson -119 (W); Mickelson tb Fowler -140 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ Carib [available generally]  LOST 6&4
Good odds to back a supreme matchplayer: twice a winner and once a runner-up in the last five years. He hasn't been trailing in either of his matches so far and of the six holes that he has lost to his opponent, he immediately won the next hole in four of those six occasions. Watson has certainly been playing well over the first two days, but he faced opponents who were debutants in this event. Today he will face a completely different test.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Mahan tb Kaymer +130 (L); Kuchar tb Fowler +110 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Ryan Moore -136 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON 5&4

Semi-final play (2pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Bubba Watson -148 @ Pinnacle [available generally]

Consolation match play (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Bubba Watson -110 @ SkyBet and The Greek [available generally]  WON 2&1
This match can produce unexpected results as it can be difficult to get motivated for this consolation game. But I can't see Watson winning this one after his ordeals yesterday. He will be the much more tired player and, as he explained in his post-Kaymer-match interview, the slowing of the greens due to the expected winds hurt his putting game. With the adverse weather expected today, the greens will once again be slow and this should be a match that the ever-consistent Kuchar wins.

Final play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Martin Kaymer +100 available generally  WON 3&2
Anyone who has watched the golf this week will know that Donald has been, by far, the better golfer. He has recorded 27 birdies and just 4 bogeys - and that is on a course that was supposed to be set up as a bomber's course. The player who has played the least amount of holes during the week tends to win the final and Donald has a large advantage in this angle. Plus, the weather conditions as well as the two rounds played yesterday would have had a much more tiring effect on the players, so to play nine less holes in those conditions should be a particular advantage on the following day. And then there is the distraction of Kaymer being the new #1 in the World Rankings. It dominated his post-round interview and it may well be a distraction that he can ill-afford given his lack of ball control compared to Donald.