World Matchplay

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R1 Matches (0.25 Pts stakes unless stated) @ Sporting Index

Sell Phil Mickelson over Brendan Jones at 10 M/U 28, Loss 4.5 Pts
Mickelson has never been a great matchplay player (although not as bad as some would believe). His record in this event recently reads L32, L32, L16 since the event moved to Arizona which is 4 wins, 3 losses. Jones hasn't won yet in two attempts but even allowing for this, 10 is quite high.

Sell Graeme McDowell over Heath Slocum at 10 M/U 22, Loss 3 Pts
Another where the price is too high. McDowell hasn't won in two attempts in Arizona whilst Slocum is making his first appearance. Arizona desert form sees Slocum provide a win and 5 further Top 10's so on that basis he is worthy of a play here.

Sell Ian Poulter over Stewart Cink at 3 M/U -10, Profit 3.25 Pts
Last years winner against an opponent with a reputation for Matchplay in both the Ryder/President's Cup and here in Arizona where he has got to Friday, at least, every year since the event moved to the state in 2007. The price is probably 3-5 because Cink has started the year slowly but he did get inside the Top 30 last week and is maybe starting to find some form.

Sell Louis Oosthuizen over Bo Van Pelt at 1 M/U -16, Profit 8.5 Pts (0.5 Pts Stake)
The Open winner has played in this even once, losing in R1 in 2009. Van Pelt makes his debut but in recent weeks has finished a credible 18th in Phoenix which unfortunately is the only cut made in 5 starts this year but at least the 18th was on a desert layout. I still believe he is the equal of Oosthuizen in the circumstances they find themselves in this week and is worthy of a bet getting a one point start.

Sell Ross Fisher over Robert Allenby at 2 M/U 22, Loss 10 Pts (0.5 Pts Stake)
Fisher is 0-2 favourite elsewhere and that is nearer the mark in my opinion. Fisher was a semi finalist 2 years ago but fell at the first hurdle last year. Allenby has only won 1 match in four years in Arizona but a good 4th place last week shows he is in good nick for this week.

R1 - 2-3-0 -5.5 Pts

R2 Matches (0.25 Pts unless stated)


Sell Martin Kaymer over Justin Rose at 3, M/U 10, Loss 1.75 Pts
I dont think a policy of betting on the player who played R1 better here has any long term gain as in this event you are only ever playing one man and someone who got through after a bad performance can take as big a positive from that than someone who won well. So, the reason for supporting Rose here isn't the fact he played better than Kaymer yesterday, just purely that the price is too high. Rose has won more matches here than he has lost whereas Kaymer has won 50% and 3-5 is a high price given the scoring system.

R3 Matches (0.25 Pts stakes)


Sell Rickie Fowler over Matt Kuchar at 0, M/U -16, Profit 4 Pts
Following on from the belief that prices can be skewed on what happened yesterday, Fowler, who has yet to win on tour, seems a false favourite here against the current money list winner and the player with lowest scoring average in 2010. H2H's sees a 10-7 Kuchar lead over 12 months and this price is based purely on the R2 result against Mickelson.

3-4-0 -3.25 Pts