Bridgestone Invitational

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1-3; -9.00pts  (system plays: 13-9-3) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Tiger Woods +125 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Why shouldn't Scott beat Woods? He has finished ahead of him in 5 of 7 strokeplay events in 2012, and those five include the three Majors, the Players Championship and the previous WGC event. Tiger's only two 'victories' against Scott have come in regular PGA Tour events. And on a course on which previous form is so important, Scott's position as defending champion shows that he has the ability to go well around Firestone. Tiger does have a great record here, but that was before this decade began - in the last two years, he has finished 78th (of 81) and 37th. With Tiger being unimpressive despite finishing 3rd at Lytham, Scott has a very good chance of finishing ahead of Tiger provided he has exorcised the self-doubt that would have certainly arisen following the final four holes in the Open Championship.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Fowler tb Rose +115 (T)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Martin Laird to beat Lee Slattery -150 @ Bet365 [available generally]  LOST by 1
Easy to oppose Slattery who lies 2nd after the opening round. This is only his 2nd event in the U.S. - he missed the cut in the 2012 U.S. Open - and only the fifth time that he has been inside the top-5 in a European Tour event. He is 0-for-4 in those previous first situations, and in the last one - the 2012 Wales Open - he failed to break 70 in any subsequent round and finished 28th, Given that he hasn't had a top-20 finish for over six months, I'd expect him to struggle to hold on to this position in a regular European Tour event; I certainly can't see him doing it in a World Golf Championship event.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Oosthuizen tb Furyk -116 (W); Ogilvy tb Byrd -135 (W); Watson tb Schwartzel -143 (W); Dyson tb Cabrera-Bello -116 (L); Kaymer tb Toms -125 (L); Kuchar tb Schwartzel -110 (W); Van Pelt tb Garcia +100 (W); Van Pelt tb Rose -110 (T); Pettersson tb Siem -138 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Jason Dufner +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 5
A good price to back a player who has a very good record when in contention: Oosthuizen has started the third round in the top-3 on eleven occasions since 2010 - in those eleven 3rd rounds, he has already shot a round in the 60s and has never finished the third round outside the top-3 and in the lead in seven of those eleven occasions. Dufner certainly has impressive form, but that is fully taken into account by the price.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Chalmers tb Els +125 (L); Na tb Siem +100 (L); Donald tb Dufner -125 (W); Oosthuizen tb Furyk -110 (W); Ogilvy tb Johnson D +110 (W); Crane tb Lawrie -110 (V); Haas tb Pettersson -105 (W); Allenby tb Hoey -105 (L); Donaldson tb Wiesberger -110 (L); Haas tb Piercy -105 (T)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Luke Donald to beat Jason Dufner -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 2
These two have played in the same 4th round on 12 occasions in the last 12 months ... Dufner has shot the lower 4th round score just once. On that basis and with the windy conditions also favouring the Englishman, I'll back him at these odds.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Dyson tb Grace -116 (W); Laird tb Grace -135 (W); McIlroy tb Bradley -130 (L); Van Pelt tb Oosthuizen -105 (L); Donald tb McDowell -150 (W); Donald tb Rose -120 (L)]