HSBC Champions

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5-7; -7.18pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Nick Watney to beat Ian Poulter +111 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 3
Can't find too much value in the 1st round offerings for this event, so I'll take a punt on this matchup. Poulter finished 4th last week in his only Tour event in the last eight weeks and is widely tipped for this event, but that usually translates into poor odds. That appears to be the case in this matchup as I don't see why Watney is such a large underdog - he won the CIMB Masters last week (his 2nd victory in the last ten weeks) and he has finished ahead of Poulter in eight of the last ten WGC events.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Justin Rose to beat Shane Lowry -110 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 2
Lowry has been playing well recently - 1st and 5th in his last two starts - and he finished the 1st round in 3rd place. This is similar to the 2009 HSBC Champions when he opened with 66 to be 2nd after round 1, but then he shot 71 or higher in each of the next three rounds and finished 28th. In his only other WGC start - 2009 Bridgestone Invitational - he finished 77th of 78. So, despite his recent form, I don't expect him to remain in contention this week.

John Senden to beat Alvaro Quiros -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
No hesitation in taking the opportunity to oppose Quiros - in his last ten events, he has missed the cut eight times and in the two weeks that he has played at the weekend, they were in limited-field, no-cut events.

Bubba Watson to beat Dustin Johnson +110 @ William Hill  LOST by 4
Impressive opening round from Bubba - he lies 3rd and just one shot off the pace. He is already ahead of Johnson and has travelled more widely than Johnson outside the U.S. (notably to Australia, Japan and South Korea), so I don't see why he should be the underdog in this matchup.

Adam Scott to beat Louis Oosthuizen -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and William Hill]  LOST by 5
Two players with good records in Asia - Scott is a three-time winner of the Singapore Open, for example - but outside his native South Africa, Oosthuizen has only ever led a Tour event after rd1 on two previous occasions and failed to win either European Tour title. In the matchup of the first round leaders, the advantage should be with the Australian.

Brandt Snedeker to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ BetVictor]  WON by 2
Opposing Colsaerts who was over-par today - fatigue could easily be factor after such a season. Snedeker shot the lower round today and, given that this is his first Tour start since winning the Tour Championship six weeks ago, I'd expect him to get better as the week goes on.

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Robert Allenby to beat Robert Rock +108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 7
Two players out of form and struggling in 60th place, but I'd back Allenby to play better when out of contention, whereas the odds suggest the other player has been favoured.

Phil Mickelson to beat Jason Dufner +104 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 5
Twice a winner of the HSBC Champions, Mickelson has played just as well Dufner this week and continues to look competitive and interested when in contention as he is this week. Once again, there should be value at plus-odds.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Brandt Snedeker to beat Bill Haas -110 @ William Hill  TIED
Snedeker's 60 yesterday showed a return to the form that won him the Tour Championship. It is never easy to follow up such a low round, but he has a good record when in the top-10 unless Haas who has averaged 71.70 in his last ten final rounds when starting in the top-10.

Bubba Watson to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -144 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 2
This is GFC's sixth start in this event and, to date, his best finish in this limited field event is 32nd. That was in 2005 when it wasn't a WGC event, but in WGC events, his best finish has been 33rd - a 1st round exit in this year's World Match Play Championship. Both players are down in 20th place, but the Masters Champion is clearly the better player.

Luke Donald to beat Jason Dufner -117 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 7
Third in his last two starts, Donald has certainly fallen off the radar this year, but he is still playing consistent, good golf. Revealingly, he ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in Final Round Scoring Average - he has been off the radar, but still finishing high on the leaderboard - and this augurs well in a matchup against a player ranked 147th in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour.

Carl Pettersson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 3
Expected shorter odds given the difference between these two players. Olesen is a very inconsistent player and has finished outside the top-50 in both his previous starts in China, Pettersson has a much better record in China, is already in the top-10 (Olesen is 16th) and has improved with every round so far this week.

Adam Scott to beat Martin Kaymer -117 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 1
Since leading the event after the 1st round, Scott has slipped back to 9th and six shots off the lead, but Westwood was nine shots off the lead today and caught Oosthuizen so he can't feel that he is completely out of contention. Kaymer has finished ahead of him in just one strokeplay event this year; I don't see it being #2 this week.