Accenture Match Play Championship

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2-4; -5.10pts  (system plays: 3-4-0) 

1st round play (2pts):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Robert Karlsson -120 @ Paddy Power and BlueSq [available generally]  LOST 6&5
Opposing Karlsson as a poor matchplayer. He has qualified for this tournament six times, lost in the first round times and then lost in the second round in the remaining two years. In the Ryder Cup, he has won just one match out of seven played. And now he comes to this event with a complete set of new clubs this season (Adams) and off a performance last time out in Qatar where he missed the cut by 11 shots. Jacobson has played in this event just twice, reaching the third round on his debut, but he is in far better form having finished last season with 3rd in the unofficial PGA Tour event, the Asia Pacific Classic, 2nd in the WGC-HSBC Champions, and opened his season last week with 13th in the Northern Trust Open.

[unofficial 1st round system plays: Scott tb Rock -175 (L); Bradley tb Ogilvy -111 (W); Simpson tb Manassero -171 (L); Kaymer tb Chalmers -180 (W); Hansen tb Kim -125 (W); Dufner tb Hanson +100 (L)]

2nd round play (2pts):

Keegan Bradley to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -175 @ Paddy Power, Centrebet and BlueSq [available generally]  LOST 2&1
A worthy short price on Bradley to advance. This is the ninth consecutive year that Jimenez has played in this event, but only once over that period has he advanced beyond the 2nd round. On yesterday's play - he beat Sergio Garcia 2&1, but Garcia was really struggling, failing to break par over their 17 holes - he should struggle to reach the 3rd round. By contrast, Bradley demolished matchplay specialist Geoff Ogilvy 4&3 with some spectacular golf - he was 8-under-par for his 15 holes. Clearly in much better form in the run-up to this event and during yesterday's play, Bradley should be a shorter-priced favourite for this match.

3rd round play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Hunter Mahan -110 @ Stan James and BlueSq [available generally]  LOST 4&3
Siding with the better player in this match. The World #5 has a means of just getting the job done without being spectacular and that earned him a previous victory in this event (2001) and victory earlier this year at the Tournament of Champions. Mahan's record in this event is less impressive and his abilities in matchplay when under pressure were exposed when he played Graeme McDowell in the Ryder Cup. Both of his opponents have been over-par so far this week; he will face a much stronger test in Stricker.

Quarter-Final play (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Martin Laird -170 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON 4&2
Westwood's new 'more aggressive' strategy is paying dividends this week: he has held the lead for 48 of his 49 holes played so far this week. He has never won a WGC event previously, but if he does this week, he will return to #1 in the World Rankings. On his play this week, he will warrant that title and he should beat Laird who came into this in poor form: 61st, mc, mc in the last three weeks. I can't see him putting Westwood under pressure today.

[unofficial quarter-final play: Kuchar tb Mahan -110 (L)]

Semi-Final play (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Rory McIlroy -106 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST 3&1
McIlroy may have youth on this side - fitness can be an issue in such a long tournament - but he has not shown the same abilities under pressure as Westwood. Westwood has played better players (in terms of both seeding and world rankings) and has played fewer holes than his opponent, plus he has played well throughout the week, whereas McIlroy has been 'improving'. The edge clearly lies with the Englishman who did not struggle when he fell behind for the first time last week.

Hunter Mahan to beat Rory McIlroy +156 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON 2&1
Let-down is a major factor in the final now that the Sunday play has hosted both the semi-finals and the final. In that respect, Mahan's routine win over Wilson sets him up better for the final than McIlroy who had to respond to being three-down after four holes to Westwood and played some great golf from that point onwards. There is also the added pressure knowing that he will become World #1 for the first time if he wins this match. And there is the fatigue factor now that they will be completing their sixth round in five days. When Mahan was taken to the 17th hole this morning, it was the first time since Wednesday that he has had to play beyond the 15th hole; McIlroy had never finished before the 16th hole this week. Backing the home player at good odds.