Bridgestone Invitational

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6-3; +4.28pts  (system plays: 6-1-1) 

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Jason Dufner to beat Bubba Watson +120 @ 5Dimes  TIED
I'll take these odds to back the Dufman. He is a difficult player to gauge this year, but his best three finishes in the U.S. have come in the two Majors there and the last WGC event. He was also 26th at the British Open (ahead of Watson) so he is clearly motivated by the big tournaments this year. With a top-10 finish on his course debut in 2012 and Bubba having a best finish of 19th in three attempts, these appear good odds in this type of event.

Nick Watney to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Horschel is a long way from the form that saw him play so well between March and June: he is averaging in excess of 72 per round over his last four events. He is also making his debut, not only on this course and debutants do not have a good record in this event, but he is also making his debut in a WCG event. That is how much his run of form lifted him in the World Rankings. I don't see him competing against a player in the top-30 of the World Rankings who, far from making his debut in a WGC event, has won one of these titles.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -105 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 3
A great price to oppose Olesen who has missed the cut in seven of his last eight strokeplay events and in the only cut that he did make (Scottish Open), he finished 67th. Donaldson has yet to shoot a higher 1st round score than Olesen in 2013 and with a couple of top-10 finishes in his last three starts, he should easily beat his opponent in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Johnson Z tb Cabrera -111 (W); Pettersson tb Lynn (L)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Tiger Woods to beat Hideki Matsuyama -225 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 7
Woods was very impressive yesterday, leading the field in greens in regulation as well as being inside the top-10 for driving distance and driving accuracy. And he is also very good from position, winning 12 of 22 times that he has been 2nd or 3rd after rd1 and averaging 67.41 in rd2 from that position. Matsuyama from poor from tee to green yesterday as he struggled when paired with Tiger; he will need to improve enormously to be competitive today.

Tiger Woods to beat Adam Scott -150 @ Stan James [also available @ William Hill]  WON by 7
Scott was also very poor yesterday and that fits with his hit-or-miss record on this course. I don't see him bouncing back today, rather an increased focus on next week's Major Championship.

Sergio Garcia to beat Rickie Fowler -115 @ The Greek [available generally]  LOST by 5
By contrast Fowler is inside the top-10 after the 1st round, but previous experience suggests that he is unlikely to stay there. He has been in this position on the PGA Tour nine times in the last two years, averages 72.67 in rd2 on those nine occasions and managed to remain in the top-10 by the end of rd2 just once. Garcia has been playing well enough recently to profit from Fowler's form inside the top-10.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Haas tb Fowler -111 (W); Donaldson tb Olesen -110 (T)] 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Angel Cabrera to beat Paul Casey -120 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, William Hill and Carib]  WON by 3
Cabrera has hit his drives further and straight than Casey so far this week and hit more greens in regulation, so he is playing better this week and is not just in better form. And as it is almost two years since Cabrera failed to shoot a lower rd3 or rd4 score than Casey, I'll back him again in this position.

Jason Dufner to beat Keegan Bradley +115 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Bradley may be the defending champion, but he is in the final pairing with Tiger on the day after that round. This will be an intimidating environment and it is one in which he has rarely played well in the past. He has been paired with Tiger five times previously and shot 74-68-77-71-74. As pointed out earlier, Dufner appears to raise his game for these type of events, so these look generous odds on a player only two shots behind Bradley in 6th place.

Brandt Snedeker to beat Graeme McDowell -130 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  TIED
Backing the player who is in better form - not only did he win the Canadian Open last week, but he has finished ahead of McDowell in eight of their last eleven common events - and performs better when not in contention: over the past 12 months, Snedeker has been outside the top-30 at the start of rd3 on seven occasions and on every occasion he has finished rd3 higher up the leaderboard than he started it, including a 60 in rd3 of the WGC-HSBC Champions in November; GMac has also been in this position seven times of the last 12 months, but averages over 71 from that position.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Mickelson tb Westwood -110 (W); Kuchar tb Els -135 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Bill Haas to beat Chris Wood -138 @ Bet365 [available generally]  TIED
It's a surprise to see Wood inside the top-5 this week. In his last five strokeplay events, his finishes have been wd-wd-mc-57th-64th. Given that his record in the U.S. also reads: missed four of five cuts, exit 1st round of WGC Matchplay both times and a best finish of 43rd, it will be a surprise if he is still at the top-5 at the end of this week. Haas has a win and two other top-10 finishes in his last four starts in the U.S. - it will be a surprise if he doesn't remain in contention for 2nd place.

Tiger Woods to beat Henrik Stenson -148 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED
Since he won the Players Championship in 2009, Stenson has started the final round inside the top-5 on eleven occasions - he has failed to break 70 on any of those 11 occasions and averages 72.73 in rd4 from this position. He is also in the final pairing with Tiger Woods ... this is the fourth time that he has been paired with Tiger in rd4 (two of those three have been in WGC events) and Tiger has shot the lower rd4 score every time. This will be the seventh time that Tiger has a lead of 7+ shots at the start of the final round. Not only has he won every time, averaging 68.17 in rd4 from this position, but he has won by at least eight shots every time.

Justin Rose to beat Martin Kaymer -138 @ Bet365 and Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 3
Without a top-20 finish in five attempts on this course, Kaymer is worth opposing in this matchup a little further down the leaderboard. Rose, by contrast, finished 5th last year and was a runner-up in 2007, but he is also backed as this is a matchup that he dominates - 14-7-1 h2h since the start of last year - and particularly over the weekend 21-8-5 in rd3 and rd4 over the same period.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Sterne tb Merrick -115 (W); Garcia tb Lynn -138 (W)]