HSBC Champions

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9-5; +6.00pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ Bet365 [6pts]  LOST by 3
McIlroy does have a good record on this course and he did beat Tiger in that exhibition match on Monday with a new ball and a new driver, but his record in proper events in 2013 cannot be ignored. He has finished ahead of Rose just twice in 15 common events in 2013 and he has shot the lower rd1 score just once.

Ryan Moore to beat Brandt Snedeker -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 3
Just as McIlroy's form cannot be ignored, nor can Moore's. He was in contention two weeks ago in Las Vegas and won in Kuala Lumpur last week. That compares well to Snedeker who hasn't competed since the Tour Championship six weeks ago. With Moore securing a 3rd place finish in his previous visits and Snedeker making his debut, he deserves to be the favourite in this matchup.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Jamie Donaldson -110 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  LOST by 10
BVP is another who travels well, winning in Malaysia and Australia in the last two years. He was in contention throughout on this course two years ago so I'll back him against course debutant Donaldson, who has just one top-30 finish in WGC events (17th, 2013 Bridgestone Invitational).

Ken Duke to beat Mikko Ilonen -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
This is a play against Ilonen whose form has deserted him since winning the Nordea Masters in June. Since that win, he has failed to finish in the top-30 in any of his eleven events and failed to even 80 in his opening round in China last week.

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Sergio Garcia to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Bet365  WON by 6
Two formers winners of this event, Kaymer has been in good form recently, but so has Garcia with top-20 finishes in each of his last four starts. However, Garcia's form is more permanent - he hasn't missed a cut since the PGA Championship in August 2012 - so it is no surprise that he holds a 12-4 h2h lead against Kaymer in strokeplay events over the past 12 months. With that record, I'll back him in this matchup at plus odds.

Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy +105 @ Bet365  WON by 1
McIlroy did carry over his exhibition form to the first round here and now leads by two shots. However, given the year that he has had, it is still unlikely that he will continue to play like his former self. He did hold the 1st round lead in Wells Fargo Championship in May, for example, but then shot 71-73-73 over the next three rounds. That was the last time that he has held the lead after any round until today, so the value should be with Rose who is three shots back in 4th place.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Jamie Donaldson +120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 7
A repeat of the first round matchup in which BVP lost by ten shots. The bizarre fact is that Van Pelt hit 13 greens in regulation to Donaldson's 10, yesterday Donaldson lies 2nd on the leaderboard and Van Pelt 72nd. Given their play in the 1st round, a bounce-back looks likely in this matchup.

Jordan Spieth to beat Paul Casey -125 @ Bet365 [2pts]  WON by 2
Given that this is Spieth's first event since the Tour Championship six weeks ago, a 4th place finish after the opening round is very encourgaing for the American. He leads Casey by a single shot and while Casey does have a good record on this course, he does not have the form to match Spieth if he really has managed to continue where he left off on the PGA Tour.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Nick Watney to beat Seuk-Hyun Baek -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]  WON by 2
Baek has been in good form on the Asian PGA Tour recently, but in these 'big' events he finished last in the CIMB Classic last week and is currently 67th of 78 after two rounds this week. On that basis, I don't see him improving much over the weekend, whereas Watney is far better than his current position alongside Baek on the leaderboard.

Jimmy Walker to beat Peter Uihlein -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Two players in great form so it is a surprise to see them so low down the leaderboard. However, I fail to see why the current #1 in the FedEx Cup standings and #2 in Scoring Average and Money Leaders on the PGA Tour should be the underdog in this matchup.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Thongchai Jaidee -116 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Van Pelt did bouce-back as expected today and his ball-striking is such that he now ranks 6th in greens in regulation so far this week, so he can further improve on his current 38th place position. Jaidee is alongside him in 38th place, but ranks 61st in driving accuracy and 44th in greens in regulation, so there appears to be little indication that he will improve his position significantly over the weekend.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Luke Donald to beat Paul Casey -115 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]  LOST by 2

Bubba Watson to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ Stan James  LOST by 2

Jordan Spieth to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 1

Ian Poulter to beat Dustin Johnson -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]  TIED

[unofficial rd4 system play: Spieth tb Els -135 (L)]