Bridgestone Invitational

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3-5; -6.64pts  (system plays: 2-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Justin Rose -110 @ 5Dimes and Paddy Power  LOST by 4
Two players in good form, though Rose seems more capable of winning events than Furyk, however he hasn't finished ahead of Furyk in any event since mid-March. And with Furyk having the superior record on this course - eight top-10 finishes here and a 5-1-1 h2h record at Firestone - I'd make Furyk the favourite in this matchup format.

Angel Cabrera to beat Victor Dubuisson -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Three top-5 finishes on this course and finishes of 11th-24th-1st-19th in his last four starts point to a strong week for Cabrera. Dubuisson is making his course debut and has yet to record a top-25 finish in the U.S. in a strokeplay event ... that does not augur well for this week.

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Victor Dubuisson -116 @ Bet365  LST by 3
Oosthuizen is another with a good record on this course - finishes of 9th and 4th in his three appearances - and it is a feature of this event that every WGC winner here had already secured a top-10 finish at Firestone before their win. That points to course experience being important and a reason to oppose Dubuisson who had been in indifferent form before his top-10 finish at Royal Liverpool in very different conditions.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Cabrera tb Walker -105 (L); Kirk tb Na -111 (W)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Rickie Fowler -120 @ Stan James and  Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Backing Furyk again as the course specialist; Fowler has just one top-20 finish in attempts. He has also finished ahead of Fowler in 10 of 13 common events in the U.S. over the past year and than includes a 17-5-4 h2h record in the pre-weekend rounds.

Jordan Spieth to beat Victor Dubuisson -127 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED
Dubuisson finished the day in 46th place (of 76), so he should have been a profitable go-against yesterday. I'll try again with a player much higher in the World Rankings than yesterday's selections and who has finished ahead of the Frenchan in all six common strokeplay events in the U.S.

Adam Scott to beat Justin Rose -125 @ Bet365 and Stan James  LOST by 1
Opposing another player for the second day in a row. Rose did finish 2nd yesterday, but he only hit 11 greens in regulation, so it was in scrambling and putts per round (in which he led the field) that saved his score yesterday. The 9-3-1 h2h record in favour of the Australian over tha past year shows why he is the World #1 and Rose is #4, so I'll back him at these odds.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Molinari tb Donaldson -125 (T); Schwartzel tb Donaldson -131 (W)]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Matth Kuchar to beat Tiger Woods +100 @ Paddy Power  VOID (missed the news about the early tee-times!)

Adam Scott to beat Rory McIlroy +110 @ Stan James and Paddy Power  WON by 2

Bubba Watson to beat Tiger Woods +108 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  VOID

Round 4 plays (6pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Tiger Woods +100 @ Paddy Power  WON  (Woods wd)
Opposing Tiger who is 15 shots off the pace and, over and above his physical limitations, is struggling with his long and his short game this week and that is putting pressure on the rest of his game - he hit only seven greens in regulation yesterday. With the PGA Championship next week, this round will likely be a preparation round with more tinkering of his swing. This is only the fourth time in the last five years that he has been 15+ shots off the lead at the start of the final round - in the previous three occasions, he has shot 77-72-75 and fallen 4-10 shots further back during round 4. A similar pattern is expected today, but not from Kuchar who has never fallen more than one more shot off the pace in rd4 when starting it 15+ shots off the pace in the last five years.

Bubba Watson to beat Tiger Woods +110 @ The Greek [available generally]  WON  (Woods wd)
Same for Bubba as for Kuchar - he has been 15+ shots off the pace at the start of the final round on seven previous occasions in the last five years and has averaged less than 70 in rd4 from that position. He has driven the ball further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Tiger, so the value is with Bubba in this matchup.