HSBC Champions

Subscribe

2-8; -29.04pts  (system plays: 0-1-1)

Round 1 plays (6pts unless stated):

Bubba Watson to beat Henrik Stenson +110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Backing Watson for a good week. Neither has played in a strokeplay event since September, but Watson did shoot four sub-70 rounds last year en route to a top-10 finish while Stenson finished outside the top-30 and it has been six years since he finished in the top-10 here. At these odds, Watson looks the value play.

Bubba Watson to beat Martin Kaymer +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ 5Dimes and SkyBet]  LOST by 1
Kaymer has a much better record on this course - he finished alongside Watson in 8th place last year and won on this course in 2011. However, he has not displayed the consistency of form that Watson has shown and missed the cut in his last event - the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Again, the value should be with Watson at these odds.

Bill Haas to beat Joost Luiten -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] [4pts]  WON by 7
Luiten has been in very good form on the European Tour, but Haas can certainly match him in terms of consistency rather than form, plus he also has the advantage of three years' course experience at Sheshan International; Luiten is making his course debut.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Rickie Fowler -105 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  LOST by 2
Backing a European in this fourth trans-Atlantic matchup. Fowler has struggled in his two previous appearances on this course, finishing 55th last year in particular, and is making his first appearance since failing to win any of his five matches at the Ryder Cup. Donaldson has maintained the form that he showed that week and finished 4th in the BMW Masters last week, plus he also finished in the top-10 here last year.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Scott tb Stenson -116 (T)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Keegan Bradley -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 3
Opposing Bradley who has struggled for form this year: Schwartzel leads him 12-3-1 h2h in 2014, including 10-4-1 in rd2 alone. Given the South African's impressive record on this course, I'm very confident that he will be ahead of Bradley by the end of the week.

Sergio Garcia to beat Adam Scott +110 @ Paddy Power  [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, Pinnacle and The Greek]  TIED
A former winner here (2008) and 4th last year, Garcia has a much better record at Sheshan International than Scott who is without a top-5 finish here. The Spaniard came into this event in much better form (2nd last week) and despite being in 42nd place after rd1, he did hit more greens in regulation than Scott today, so I do think that there is value in these odds.

Bill Haas to beat Chris Kirk +105 @ SkyBet [2pts]  TIED
Kirk struggled to hit either the fairways or the greens today, so it is a surprise that he finished the day in 2nd place. He didn't show any sign of this form last week and I think Haas, who was far more accurate today and so warrants his top-10 position, will be the victor in this matchup.

Jaco Van Zyl to beat Dawie Van Der Walt -120 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [2pts]  LOST by 3
An all-South African matchup, but I can't see any reason to back Van Der Walt here. Van Zyl has finished ahead of him in each of their last five common events and Van Der Walt has really struggled on the Web.com Tour, missing 12 of 19 cuts since the Louisiana Open in March. Van Zyl is also the player with course experience, having finished 13th and 21st in his two previous visits. He looks far more likely to retain his top-10 position.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Woodland tb Palmer -110 (L)]

Round 3 plays (6pts unless stated):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Martin Kaymer +109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 6
Oosthuizen leads Kaymer 9-3 h2h in 2014 and already leads his opponent this week, so I'm surprised that he is a sizeable underdog on this matchup.

Bill Haas to beat Chris Kirk +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Opposing Kirk again after he, as expected, dropped from 2nd to 21st in rd2. Haas has again hit more fairways and greens than Kirk today so, again, I expect to him beat Kirk and am surprised that Haas is priced at the underdog.

Darren Fichardt to beat Pablo Larrazabal -105 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  LOST by 5
Fichardt has shown good form recently - 2nd and 13th in his last two starts - and already leads Larrazabal in this event. I'll back him to stay ahead of his opponent for at least one more day.

Round 4 plays (6pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Martin Kaymer +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]  TIED
Take away his record on the PGA Tour and McDowell is 5-for-6 outside the U.S. when leading at the start of the 4th round. He may be leading, but his all-round game has been very good this week and he has finshed ahead of Kaymer in five of their last six common events.

Stephen Gallacher to beat J.B. Holmes -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Gallacher has hit more fairways and greens so far this week, while Holmes has played this week, like last week, like it has been a couple of months since he was last on Tour. Holmes looks opposable, which Gallacher is normally dependable in matchups.