Bridgestone Invitational

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6-4; +2.20pts 

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Jim Furyk to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 2
A runners-up spot in 2013 represents the only time that Stenson has finished in the top-10 at Firestone in eight attempts; Furyk has managed eight in the last 15 years, including two in the last three years. In better form than his Swedish opponent, Furyk should again hold the upper hand at Firestone.

Matt Kuchar to beat Hideki Matsuyama +138 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]  LOST by 3
With finishes of 12th in the U.S. Open, 2nd in the Scottish Open and 7th in the Canadian Open, there are clear signs that his form is returning and so he looks set for another low-scoring week at Firestone where he has finished 9th-19th-8th-27th-12th over the last five years. Matsuyama is a very consistent opponent, but these are very good odds for the World #16 to beat a player just one place above him in those rankings.

Bubba Watson to beat Dustin Johnson +138 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]  LOST by 1
Opposing DJ in his first tournament since dropping from 1st to 49th over the weekend at the Open Championship. This is also a course on which he has yet to record a top-10 finish, so he is definitely opposable this week. Admittedly, this is a course that also doesn't suit Bubba's game, but he won the Travelers Championship five weeks ago and came so close to at least forcing a playoff at the Canadian Open two weeks ago. In this form, he looks far more likely to break that top-10 duck and that is not reflected in these odds.

Jim Furyk to beat Hideki Matsuyama +120 @ SkyBet [2pts]  WON by 3
Two very consistent players, but I'll take Furyk at plus-odds given his record on this course - Matsuyama is without a top-10 finish in either of his previous visits.

Marc Leishman to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  LOST by 1
As for Johnson, this is also the first start for Leishman since the Open Championship, but even though the Australian didn't win that event, he can look back at some very impressive play when he shot 64-66 over the weekend of a Major Championship and only lost out via a playoff. A 3rd place finish last year should also give him confidence ahead of this week and he should beat Horschel who finished 44th on his only previous visit to Firestone.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Martin Kaymer -118 @ Coral [available generally]  WON by 2
Scott hasn't at his best yesterday, but he does have a good pedigree on this course, winning here in 2011 and finishing in the top-15 in four of the last five years. He has top-10 finishes in both his last two events, both Majors, and can be expected to improve today. Kaymer has secured just one top-20 finish in seven attempts on this course and is already outside the top-20 after day one. He is expected to continue to struggle at Firestone.

Adam Scott to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Fowler's form enabled him to score well yesterday and finish the day in 4th place, but he didn't strike the ball particularly well: he ranked 50th in driving distance, 24th in driving accuracy and 31st in greens in regulation. He has never finished ahead of Scott in this event and unless he plays better today, I expect him to finish behind the Australian who played better, but scored worse, on day one.

Sergio Garcia to beat Patrick Reed +100 @ Bet365  TIED
Garcia surrendered a two-shot lead at the start of the final round last year when finishing 2nd to McIlroy, so he can clearly play well on this course even though he is six shots back after day one. He is in good form, finishing 6th in his last two starts, and has dominated this matchup, finishing ahead of Reed in each of their last three common events and in five of their last six common events. Tied after day one, Garcia looks the more likely to get himself into contention today.

Brooks Koepka to beat Graeme McDowell -105 @ Stan James and Coral [available generally]  WON by 2
McDowell can't compete with Koepka's form. Whereas the American has top-25 finishes in his last five events, McDowell hasn't recorded one in his last fifteen strokeplay events. Admittedly McDowell is 2nd after day one, he played poorly, ranking 75th (of 77) in driving distance, 36th in driving accuracy and 59th in greens in regulation. He clearly putted extremely well (2nd in putts per GIR), but he can't be expected to score low again with such poor strokeplay and he may well struggle to stay in the top-25 unless he improves his ball-striking.

Sergio Garcia to beat Keegan Bradley -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 2
Back to Garcia to oppose Bradley who has a stellar record on this course and played very well yesterday, but he has been in poor form with just one top-20 finish in a strokeplay event over the last four months. That should catch up on him even with his course history at Firestone.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Pablo Larrazabal to beat Soren Kjeldsen +115 @ 5Dimes  TIED
I don't see why Larrazabal is such a large underdog in this matchup. They are both tied in 34th position, though the Spaniard improved his position in rd2 while the Dane fell twenty places, they both have poor records on this course, and they have both won on the European Tour recently: Larrazabal won the BMW International Open in June, Kjeldsen won the Irish Open in May. A small play at these odds.

Francesco Molinari to beat Kevin Kisner +100 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Another mid-leaderboard matchup, but I would make Molinari a clear favourite. Kisner had a golden run of form in which he finished 2nd in three out of eight events, but that last event was over a month ago and there is little evidence this week that he has rediscovered that form. And despite that form during that three-month spell, Molinari still leads 9-3-0 h2h in 2015, so I don't expect Kisner to be making any significant moves up the leaderboard in his debut in a WGC event.

No round 4 plays.