Cadillac Championship

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6-4; +4.48pts  (system plays: 2-2-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Rickie Fowler -108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 5
Fowler looks a player to oppose at the moment. He has played in four events this year and has yet to secure a top-40 finish and he has finished well down the leaderboard in each of the last three years here. No such problems for Kuchar who should have won at least once this year already and has a very good record on this course.

Bubba Watson to beat Jason Day -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Day is another who has struggled on this course: in three previous visits, he has finished 45th, 20th and 33rd. Watson has been a runner-up twice in the last three years and has shown enough form this suggest that the World #2 is likely to be a very strong contender at Doral once again.

Ryan Moore to beat Branden Grace -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 9
Grace's form cannot be ignored - he has won twice this year already, in Qatar and South Africa, but he has always struggled to transfer that form to North America. In this event, his finishes read 35th, 49th, and 40th, and in 25 events in the U.S., he has yet to record a single top-15 finish. I can't see Moore as a title contender this week, but a top-25 finish does look likely - he has met that mark in three of four events this year and two of three previous visits to Doral.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Casey tb Koepka -115 (L); Kirk tb Horschel -110 (L)] 

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Jordan Spieth to beat Patrick Reed +120 @ SkyBet  WON by 4
I'll take these odds on Spieth to bounce back - he has finished 7th or better in six of his last seven starts, winning twice. Reed is the defending champion, but he wouldn't typically be priced as a favourite against Spieth.

Charl Schwartzel to beat Louis Oosthuizen -125 @ Paddy Power  WON by 2
A good first round of the year for Oosthuizen to match Schwartzel and finish the day in 13th place, but a strong first round followed by poor subsequent rounds is rather common after an extended layoff. With Schwartzel having a much better history on this course, he is backed to be more likely maintain this good start.

Jimmy Walker to beat Patrick Reed +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Opposing Reed as a favourite again. Walker has shown enough form to be #1 in the FedEx standings and matched his opponent to finish 13th yesterday. I'd make him pick'em at worst.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Stenson tb Koepka -125 (W); Fisher tb Ilonen -120 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Henrik Stenson to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ The Greek [available generally]  LOST by 3
The World #3 shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup. He is far more consistent than Johnson who has been very hit-and-miss in his four events since his return to the Tour and the Swede has a far better record of closing out events when in contention. Add in a dominant 16-5-2 h2h record in Stenson's favour since 2013 and I would make him the clear favourite in this matchup.

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 5
Garcia is another who struggles to close out events as was shown two weeks ago and he is again inside the top-10. Furyk is a shot further back, but he is a far more consistent top-15 finisher and so is a player to side with in matchups.

Webb Simpson to beat Charl Schwartzel +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, Paddy Power, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 5
Again backing the underdog in the matchup. Both players in 11th place, but the fact that Simpson has hit more greens in regulation this week suggests that he should perform better on Moving Day. However, stronger evidence is found in their Round 3 Scoring Average figures. Schwartzel ranks 199th (of 208) in this category this year and this is not exceptional - in each of the last five seasons that he has been a PGA Tour member, he has ranked a very long way behind Simpson in this category and this is something that Simpson ranks particularly highly in. Over a five year period, that is enough evidence that Simpson is a player to back on Moving Day on the PGA Tour, whereas Schwartzel is much less so.

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Luke Donald to beat Zach Johnson -105 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED
Two players outside the top-50, but this is still a place where value can be found in rd4 even though the TV cameras will not be. Donald has been in this position eight times over the last three years and has averaged 69.00 in rd4 from this position; Johnson has been in this position nine times over the same period and has averaged 70.89 in rd4 from this position. More impressively, the 2007 Open Championship was the last time that Donald started the final round outside the top-50 and finished the day lower down the leaderboard. This points to a positive mental attitude for Donald in rd4 when out of contention and that can only be reinforced by his top-10 finish last week.

Joost Luiten to beat Branden Grace +120 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON by 2
Opposing Grace as in rd1 as he has continued to struggle on American courses despite form that has seen him win in South Africa (twice) and Qatar in the last three months. Luiten's game is far more suited to these courses as he showed with an 11th place finish in the Honda Classic last week and this week - he ranks inside the top-10 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation over the first 54 holes, despite opening with 79. That should point to value at these odds on the Dutchman.