World Match Play

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4-6; -5.98pts 

Day 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Victor Dubuisson +110 @ 5Dimes  WON 5&4
Dubussion's performance last year was rather Seve-esque as his recovery skills were unsurpassed that week. This is a very different type of course and it is twelve months later, so there is no guarantee that he will score as well as last year, particularly as he has been in poor form with just one top-50 finish in the last three months. Schwartzel finished in the top-20 when course was used for the WGC-American Express Championship and he has finished inside the top-50 in five of seven events in the last three months, so he is playing better than Dubuisson at the moment so I'll take these odds.

Ryan Moore to beat Danny Willett -125 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  LOST 3&2
Moore has shown good form recently with five top-25 finishes in his last six starts and that is a mark that Willett has achieved just once in 12 PGA Tour or WGC events (2015 Cadillac Championship), so the difference in form and ability should be clear. Willett is also making his debut in this event, whereas Moore has at least reached the quarter-finals previously. He really should be a shorter favourite even in this format.

Day 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Chris Kirk to beat Francesco Molinari -105 @ BetFred [available generally]  WON 2&1
Opposing Molinari who had won just one match in five years prior to yesterday's match, but even though he won yesterday, it was largely the result of a very poor, 3-over-par, round from Adam Scott. Kirk lost out in the longest game of the day, but fatigue should not be a factor in day 2 and he knows that he needs to win today else he is out of the tournament.

Zach Johnson to beat Charley Hoffman -110 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST 2&1
Two players with indifferent records in this event - Hoffman won his first match in this event yesterday, while Johnson has only had one good year in this event, finishing 3rd in 2006 - but both won yesterday. I'd expect more of a let-down from Hoffman today after defeating the defending champion and player in very good form, Jason Day, whereas Johnson has been in good form recently and had four birdies on the back nine yesterday to confirm that his game is well-suited to this course.

Bill Haas to beat John Senden -150 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST 4&3
Easy to oppose Senden. He has been in very poor form recently, missing five of his last six cuts, and both he and Stenson played poorly yesterday. In his own words, "We really didn't score well today. I was lucky to get that last one." Haas is in much better form, took control of his match early on yesterday with four birdies in five holes and deserves to be a strong favourite in this matchup.

Day 3 plays (4pts unless stated):

Brendon Todd to beat John Senden -110 @ SkyBet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and BetVictor [available generally]  LOST 1 down
Senden played poorly on Wednesday and again yesterday, but when his opponents have been 3-over-par and 5-over-par respectively, he could hardly fail to win both matches. And now that he is 2-0, he has already guaranteed himself a place in the next round so this is an unusual match and not really what the organisers of the new format wanted. In his own words: "I'm going to reserve the energy tomorrow and Brendon Todd is a world class player and we're good friends". There are potentially four more rounds of golf to be played over the weekend, so Senden wants as short a match as possible, whereas Todd - a good friend of Senden's - has pride to play for today. If he takes an early lead, it will suit Senden if this match is over quickly.

Ryan Moore to beat Patrick Reed +163 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally] LOST 1 down
At these odds, I'll back Moore in an event famous for shocks. Admittedly, he is already eliminated, but as with Todd, that is no guarantee that they will simply fold today - they will want to avoid being 0-for-3 in this new format. Reed hasn't played particularly well this week - he was over-par on Wednesday and, after holing his bunker shot for an eagle on the 1st hole, he managed just one birdie in the rest of the round yesterday. With his attention also on the game behind - he needs Sullivan to beat Willett to have a chance of progressing - there is at least a 50:50 chance in my book that he will lose to Moore today.

Jimmy Walker to beat Ian Poulter -124 @ Pinnacle [available generally] [2pts]  LOST 4&2
The organisers of the new format got what they wanted in this group: a 3rd day shootout with the winner progressing to the final 16. Unfortunately, for the organisers, it is a shootout between the two lowest seeds in the group. For Walker, that is a surprise. He has been in very good form with two wins this year already and he has lost both matches only in extra holes, so he is unlucky to be out of this tournament. But Poulter deserves to be ... he has been over-par for both rounds this week and, for all his reputation as a matchplayer, that is in the past: he has progressed beyond the 1st round just once in the last four years and was anything but an 'impact player' in the last Ryder Cup. He is a player who will be keen to get out of here as quick as possible.

Last 16 play (4pts):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Rickie Fowler +110 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON 1 hole
Backing the underdog in this matchup, not just for the nature of his win yesterday against Bubba, but for the way that he has played so far this week: in his three matches so far, he has been 4-under-par, 7-under-par, and 4-under-par. Fowler hit a lower score yesterday, but he was playing without pressure having already secured his place in the last 16, but he shot lower scores than Oosthuizen in both the first two days. While Oosthuizen played better, he still faced a tough match to get through to today. He met that challenge in style yesterday and I'm backing him to reach the quarter-finals for the second year in a row.

No Quarter-Final plays (would have tipped Woodland -125 @ The Greek, but too close to the tee-time to post).

Semi-Final play (2pts):

Gary Woodland to beat Danny Willett -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON 3&2
With ten birdies on Saturday and four-under-par in both matches yesterday, Woodland showed that he has the form as well as the game to prosper on this course. Willett matched that score in the morning, but not in the afternoon, but crucially neither of his opponents broke par yesterday. In this form this week, the edge has to be with Woodland in this match.

No Final play - the odds are far too short on McIlroy. In terms of ability, he justifies this price, but this will be the seventh round of golf in five days so fatigue (mental and physical) is always a factor when capping the WGC Matchplay final and Woodland has played fewer holes over the course of the week and significantly fewer over the weekend.