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11-0; +2.35pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Byeong Hun An 85 52nd
Victor Dubuisson 320 52nd
Martin Kaymer 180 42nd
Daniel Berger 160 28th
Matthew Fitzpatrick 340 35th
An played in four events in the U.S. last year and finished mc-57th-mc-18th so I don't think that he's competitive yet here; Dubuisson continues to struggle with his new equipment in 2016; Kaymer is also out-of-form with missed cuts in his last two starts; Berger's form is even worse this year - 42nd-mc-58th-mc-mc - so this price is clearly based on him being last season's Rookie of the Year; while Fitzpatrick is yet another selection out-of-form with missed cuts in each of his last two cuts. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20ts liability Henrik Stenson 130 28th
Jordan Spieth 44 17th
Brooks Koepka 180 23rd
Spieth is the closest of these three, but he is still seven shots off the pace and when the top-3 read Adam Scott (2nd and 1st in last two weeks), Rory McIlroy (3rd in World Rankings) and Dustin Johnson (8th in World Rankings), that is a very large gap. Stenson has played poorly so far this week, ranking 30th or worse in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so far this week; Spieth has played poorly in his last two starts and in his two previous visits to Doral, so is also very unlikely to close this gap; while Koepka has the best playing stats of the three, ranking 12th in greens in regulation, but he has never won from this far back after two rounds and the top of the leaderboard is very strong. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Sergio Garcia 240 11th
Phil Mickelson 40 5th
Danny Willett 48 3rd
Yesterday's top-3 continue to dominate this event, though McIlroy has pulled three shots ahead of the other two and five shots ahead of Mickelson, Watson and Willett in 4th place. Garcia is a shot further back in 7th place and the simple fact is that, in his 20 years on Tour, he has yet to win an event from 6+ shots back after 54 holes, so he really doesn't have any chance with the quality of players ahead of him; Mickelson is a shot closer, but for all the form that he showed on the West Coast, he was winless and it has been three years since he won on Tour; while Willett can at least claim to have won already this year (Dubai Desert Classic), he has never previously a top-10 finish in the U.S. and like Garcia, has never won from so far back after 54 holes.
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