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12-0; +9.99pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Byeong Hun An 110 63rd
Thomas Pieters 46 14th
Martin Kaymer 42 40th
Hao-Tong Li 300 63rd
An's early-season form seems a long time ago - he recorded six top-5 finishes in nine events from November to February, but he has recored just one top-10 finish since 1st May so he looks far less likely to win this week than he did a year ago
Pieters is another whose form has dipped - he was in great form when earning his place in the Ryder Cup and during the event as well, but there has been a significant letdown since that event - his finishes have been 57th-50th-31st, so is another who looks to be below his best this week
By contrast, Kaymer's form has been very steady - he has 10 top-20 finishes in his last 12 starts - but it has been over a year since his recorded a top-3 finish and his last win was the 2014 U.S. Open - so he looks likely to have another good week, but fall short of the winning line
Li won the China Open in May and contended for much of last year's event so he can be expected to perform much better in his home country, but since he hasn't had a top-15 finish since that China Open win (13 starts), there would to be a huge increase in form for him to contend this week Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Rory McIlroy 7 4th
Emiliano Grillo 130 11th
Bill Haas 11.5 4th
Francesco Molinari 26 6th
Henrik Stenson 120 2nd
This is a very short on a player who is six shots back and in 7th place, even if it is Rory McIlroy, He's also trying out new clubs this week and it has affected his accuracy off the tee - he ranks 34th in driving accuracy this week - so he will need to be striaghter if he is to end his run of contending here every time, but never finishing in the top-3
Grillo is eight shots behind Matsuyma and so will need a lot of help from the leader and two very low rounds to win from this position; I like the odds that both of those won't happen
Haas is much closer to the leader in joint 2nd place and three shots behind but, like McIlroy, he has struggled for accuracy off the tee. plus he has shown little enough form recently or previously on this course to suggest that he will be Matsuyama's strongest challenger over the weekend
Molinari, by contrast, won his last event - the Italian Open six weeks ago - and he won this event six years ago and he is again in contention this week, but his ball-striking has shown little promise that he could convert this opportunity from five shots back - he ranks 41st in greens in regulation
Back to a player who would need two very low rounds and a lot of help from the leader, Stenson is nine shots back, doesn't have a good record on this course and ranks alongside Haas in 41st place in the greens in regulation stats over the first two days Pre-rd4 plays: Rickie Fowler 100 6th
Daniel Berger 10.5 2nd
Ross Fisher 150 6th
Seven shots behind Matsuyama. I'd expect larger odds on Fowler as I don't see Fowler making up this ground without a lot of help from Matsuyama which I can't see happening
Berger is only four shots back, but these odds are rather short for a player so far back and struggling with his ball-striking this week - he ranks 70th (of 78) in driving accuracy and 28th in greens in regulation
Fisher is alongside Fowler and seven shots back and he has shown good form recently and on this course, but these odds are still rather small given the gap to Matsuyama
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