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9-2; -9.27pts Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Rory McIlroy 5.6 5th
Jordan Spieth 7.4 13th
Thomas Pieters 11 4th
Zach Johnson 21 2nd
McIlroy has shown his inconsistency so far this week - stellar off-the-tee and putting in rd1 while struggling on approach and around-the-green, but it was the opposite in rd2 - so I would price him around half-a-point higher from his current position
Spieth is certainly the form player in this field, but his form was far from secure yesterday until two closing birdies, so I would price him at higher odds from 6th place in such a field
Pieters has played well this week and has done several times in the last few months, but those good scores have all been early in the tournament (The Masters, BMW PGA Championhip, Open de France) and he has struggled to remain in contention so that does not bode well for this opportunity
In 13 previous attempts, Johnson has failed to secure a top-3 finish on this course, so the odds on him staying at 3rd or better are unlikely, particularly has he ranks 50th (of 65) in greens in regulation over the first two rounds Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Scott Hend 16 10th
It's difficult to follow up such a low round and he is one of only 11 players in the field who are ranked outside the top-100 in the World Rankings, but I would still price him at shorter odds than this. He is in sole 3rd place, only one shot behind two leaders who I am not cnnvinced will play well today (opposed yesterday) and I am not convinced that the player in 4th place (see later) will convert this chance. He has won nine times on the Asian PGA Tour, including two events that are co-sanctioned with the European Tour, and his short game has been particularly good this week. Not a likely winner, but should be at shorter odds than this. LAY 20pts liability Hideki Matsuyama 5,9 1st
Adam Hadwin 32 5th
Brooks Koepka 95 17th
Jason Day 100 24th
Daniel Berger 160 17th
Jimmy Walker 300 28th
Matsuyama is a very consistent player when in contention: ignoring the Phoenix Open where he has finished 2nd-1st-1st in the last three attempts, he finished 5th-5th-2nd-7th-7th-4th-5th-2nd-2nd-14th when starting the final round inside the top-5 (but not leading) since 2015. That is really consistent at staying in contention, but also at failing to convert his chances other than at TPC Scottsdale, so these odds look short given that history
It's quite a reversal of form to see Hadwin in 5th place after his finishes over the last two months read 53rd-mc-60th-57th-mc-mc-mc, so confidence when in final round contention should be fragile
It's a long way back from 10th place (and six shots) for Koepka whose poor play this week is evidenced by ranking 50th in greens in regulation and 71st (of 76) in strokes gained - around the green so far this week
Day has played better, but is alongside Koepka in 10th place and he has shown little form in recent months that he can mount a sustained challenge from this position
Berger's form is much better, but his poor ball-striking this week (62nd (of 76) in driving distance, 52nd in driving accuracy and 55th in greens in regulation) suggest that his form hasn't carried over particularly well to this course
Also in 10th place is the 2nd round leader who went out in 41, so even though Walker had a good inward nine, it would a remarkable comeback to get himself back into contention today
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