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12-3; +0.17pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Jimmy Walker 110 25th
Brooks Koepka 130 48th
Jeung-Hun Wang 300 71st
Thorbjorn Olesen 370 63rd
Andy Sullivan 410 20th
Walker has shown little form this year for a player ranked 21st in the World Rankings and this course should certainly not suit a player ranked 168th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour
A very similar analysis for Koepka who is one place below Walker in the World Rankings - he has done well on the bomber's paradise at Doral, but this tree-lined course at altitude will not suit a player who ranks 200th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour and has missed three of four cuts this year
Wang is another player unrenowned for accuracy off the tee, ranking outside the top-100 in this category on his home Tour. He may won the Qatar Masters but has missed his last two cuts and missed the cut in his only previous event in North America
And another wayward player off the tee - Olesen ranks 199th in driving accuracy on the European Tour. A best finish of 29th in four starts this year and no top-5 finishes in 32 PGA Tour and WGC starts also suggest that he will not be a contender this week
To complete the list of inaccurate drivers opposed, Sullivan ranks comparatively well in driving accuracy - 122nd this year - but his form has been poor and is justifiably a large price to win this event Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Ross Fisher 40 3rd
Roberto Castro 130 (& lay 1pt in-running @ 75) 45th
Lee Westwood 160 (& lay 1pt in-running @ 100 matched) 28th
McIlroy leads the field by two, but this seems a rather large price for a player in 2nd place. Fisher has hit just one less green in regulation than McIlroy who leads in this stat and Fisher has finishes of 3rd and 6th in two of his last three WGC events, so I can't see why he won't remain a live challenger on this European Tour-style course
Castro is two shots further back in 8th place and a player whose accuracy off the tee is rewarded on a course like this. I'd price him at much less than these odds, so I think that a free bet is the best way forward if his odds reach 75
Westwood is another whose game is favoured by this course and even though he is a shot further back, he is still only five behind McIlroy so he is still in contention. I'd also price him lower, but will also go for the 'free bet' approach by laying the stake at odds which he shoud reach with a good start today LAY 20pts liability Jon Rahm 32 3rd
Martin Kaymer 44 23rd
Sergio Garcia 85 12th
Bill Haas 190 32nd
Charl Schwartzel 230
Rahm leads the field in driving distance this week and that is not a good category on this course; these odds are much too low for this type on player on this course who is already four shots off the pace
Kaymer is a much better fit for this course, but it has been three years since he won a Tour event so I'd price him at higher odds from four shots off the pace
Garcia has struggled for accuracy off the tee this week, ranking 64th (of 77) in dirvnig accuracy, and that is the primary reason why he is already six shots off the pace; he will need to drive much better to make any inroads into that deficit
Haas is alongside Garcia in 19th place and justifiably available at large odds - his last win was over two years ago and he has never won from 6+ shots back with two rounds to play
Schwartzek is a third player in 19th place and so well off the pace - given that he has missed both cuts in his two starts in 2017, it has been a successful week so far to even be in this position Pre-rd4 play: LAY 20pts liability Daniel Berger 170 16th
It's hard to imagnie a player who is five shots back, in 10th place and ranks 55th in greens in regulation this week will be a challenger in the final round. He has missed two of his last three cuts, so this poor play is not unexpected and so he is an easy player to oppose today.
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