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1-2; -9.55pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK to win 10pts unless stated Rickie Fowler 24 (17.5) [9pts] 17th
Of course, there are concerns about his ability to convert winning opportunities, but this price is adequate compensation for a player who has a very good record - top-10 finishes in each of the last four years. His form is also solid enough and with this course set to test all parts of the game, Fowler should be well-suited this week. One final angle - it has been reported that there is a strong link with performance in the Masters and this event. That is certainly encouraging as Fowler finished 2nd at Augusta this year. No pre-rd3 plays. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 10pts liability unless stated Justin Thomas 1.94 (2.26) [10pts staked] 1st
Thomas has a three-shot lead and is 4-for-6 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour. He has played well this week and should be the clear favourite to win from this position, but this is a WGC event so there is a very strong set of players chasing him, It is notable that one of hiw two failures from this position came in a WGC event - the 2017 Mexico Championship when he shot 72 in the final round and finished 5th and three shots behind Dustin Johnson. That's enough for me to see value at odds-on prices.
Rory McIlroy 5.1 (5.2) [1pt] 6th
McIlroy is in joint-2nd place and is clear second in the market, but he ranks 50th in strokes gained - approaches and 2nd in strokes gained - off the tee, so it is clear to see where he problems lie in his game. Despite putting himself in very good positions off the tee, his poor iron play is letting him down. Unless that improve significantly today, he will need a lot of help from Thomas to win this title, so the odds are a little short for me.
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TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
-
Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the
market going in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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