9-3; +13.69pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Dustin Johnson 8.6  (12.5)  7th
Happy to oppose the top-5 in the market and that includes the World #1 and defending champion. This is a narrow tree-lined course on which the driver is rarely used, so Johnson's advantage off the tee is of little benefit particularlarly as the course is played at altitude. Last year, he was controlled enough to hit 2-iron off most tees so the emphasis moves to approach play. In this category - strokes gained - approaches - he ranks 63rd on Tour this season, so his advantage over the field is certainly reduced this week so I wouldn't price him at single figure odds.
Justin Thomas 11  (14)  2nd
A winner last week and the leader after 54 holes last year, Thomas is justified as the second favourite, but he fell back to finish 5th last year when his lack of control off the tee caught up with him - he ranked 68th (of 76) in driving accuracy that week. That 5th place finish is still the only top-20 finish that Thomas has recorded in a WGC event and with such a gruelling win event last week, I am happy to oppose him at these odds at this stage.
Jon Rahm 13.5  (22)  20th
Rahm did finish 3rd last year, but he ranked 65th (of 76) in fairways hit and has displayed this season how impatient he can be when his attacking style of golf does not reap rewards. After an impressive January, he has not been as competitive in February and I don't see him winning on a course such as this.
Jordan Spieth 14  (14.5)  14th
Spieth has not been at this best this year with 9th being his highest finish in five starts. He also struggled to hit the fairways last year, ranking 55th of 76 in driving accuracy, and while he did set the course record in rd3, he is another player whose odds are on the short side for this stage of the event.
Tommy Fleetwood 22  (29)  14th
Fleetwood's course management last year was far better than those above. He ranked 5th in driving accuracy and he attributed some of his good performance to the similarity of the course to those played on the European Tour in Italy and elsewhere. It was notable that there were six Europeans in the top-10 last year. He played well last week, but showed some frailty when in sole possession of the lead midday through the back nine on Sunday. As with Thomas, it was a gruelling event last week and I think that his inability to convert could also lead to a slow start this week regardless of the suitability of the course to the European Tour players.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Shubhankar Sharma 9.6  (36)  9th
Sharma has won twice in the last three months on the European Tour and looks a great prospect, but he has never played on either the PGA Tour or in a WGC event previously, so this is the biggest weekend of his career to date. That means a lot of pressure for someone with a two-shot lead and so I really don't think that this will be a comfortable weekend for a player who came into this event having missed the cut in each of the last two weeks.
Bubba Watson 21  (30)  9th
It seems a long time since Watson stormed to the top of the leaderboard in rd1, before dropping five shots in his last seven holes. Yesterday's round was much less dramatic, but he still ranks only 36th in strokes gained - approaches, so I don't see his game as being strong enough for this course to be able to significantly pull himself out of the seven-way tie for 5th place.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Dustin Johnson 7.0  (6.4)  7th
Closing out the pre-tournament LAY for a small profit on the event if Johnson wins. If Shubhankar Sharma does come back to the field, he is only a shot behind those in 2nd place. He wasn't at his best in the first round, but has found a way to score well over the last couple of days and when in contention, there are few better in this position.
Phil Mickelson 7.8  (7.2)  1st
Mickelson is one of those in 2nd place and available at higher odds than Johnson. I've opposed him pre-tournament several times this year, but these odds are high enough for there to be value backing him to win for the first time since 2013. It has been his putter that has put him in contention this week and if he can keep everything else under control, he could win or, at the very least, put playing partner, Shubhankar Sharma, under a great deal of pressure.
Tyrrell Hatton 9.6  (8.0)  3rd
Hatton will also play in the final group with Sharma and Mickelson after his 3rd round 64. He has been very good tee-to-green this week and is well-suited to this European Tour-style course on which he finished 10th last year. He has won three times on the European Tour in the last three months and can certainly match the players around him.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 11.5  (8.8)  3rd
Whereas Hatton only played in last week's event on the PGA Tour, Cabrera Bello has played in each of the last three PGA Tour event and finished in the top-30 every time. The World #20 is in good form and is another of those players in 2nd place. Like Mickelson, he is putting very well, so keeping himself in contention tee-to-green should be his recipe for success today.

LAY 10pts liability

Sergio Garcia 7.6  (8.2)  7th
Garcia has been, as ever, very strong tee-to-green this week, but has not fared as well either on or around the greens. That was also the case last year when finishing 12th, so while he completes the quartet of players in 2nd place, I think that his price is too low so I'm happy to oppose him at these odds.