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The final World Golf Championship event of the season and a return to Shanghai for the HSBC Champions. This tournament first showed up on the European Tour (co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour) and, as such, we have plenty of course knowledge of the Sheshan International Golf Club, a 7,261-yard par-72 designed by Robin Nelson and Neil Haworth. The reviews have always been positive, with an emphasis on the fact that it is an improvement on many of the one-dimensional resort layouts the Tour often visits in this part of the world. Two years ago Henrik Stenson said of the test: “You've always got to play the par-5s well. There's a lot of birdie opportunities and even eagle chances on the par-5s, but if you're not executing it well, there's chances for bogeys and doubles there, too.” Ahead of his defence last year Justin Rose agreed: “The par-5s are key this week. Number two, for example, and the 18th is also a pretty narrow tee shot. Nunber eight is a very intimidating tee shot. If you can be brave off the tee on the par 5s, there's quite a bit of an advantage to be had. I think that's why guys like Dustin and Brooks and myself have played well here because we drive the ball pretty well generally.” And Rory McIlroy reiterated the theme, saying: “It does suit the long hitters because of the four par-5s and the two drive-able par-4s, but you can't hit it all over the place here. You need to put it in play if you want any chance of scoring well.” As is often the case, the field is good, but not the strongest it could be, on the one hand because the WGC is always liberal in invites to world tours, but, specifically in this tournament’s case, because many at the top end choose to remain at home than venture over the Pacific. Angles to consider 1/ Par 5 Performance The numbers back up the words above. Of the last five winners three ranked first in this category (Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson), Justin Rose was sixth, Russell Knox eighth and Tim Clark, who lost a play-off to Watson, was second. 2/ Par 4 Performance The last four winners were also ranked sixth or better in this category, but the importance goes further than that. In the last five years 28 players have been T5 or better here and 21 were top ten for par-4s. The fact the 5s and 4s both show up might be linked to McIlroy’s point about the two short par-4s. 3/ Putting The ranking of the last four winners in Putting Average here read: fourth, seventh, first and sixth.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Sung-jae Im In his last five starts the Korean has been second (losing a play-off in the Sanderson Farms Championship), a winner in Korea and then third last week in Japan. He ranked first for Par 5 Performance on the PGA Tour in 2018/19, 21st for Par 4 and 39th for SG: Putting. Charles Howell III The stats rather like Howell III. He ranked 12th for Par 5 Performance last season, seventh for Par 4 Performance and 43rd for SG: Putting. He was T20th in the CJ Cup, then T8th last week in the Zozo Championship. He opened the season with tied fourth in the Safeway Open and his only course experience was handy too – T15th in 2017. Danny Willett Looks to be some value in his price this week. Stats are hard to come by on the European Tour site, but our three month tables show he ranks fifth for Par 4 Performance and seventh for Putt Average. Throw in that he’s a Masters champion, who has twice in the last 12 months peaked in big events (the DP World Tour Championship and BMW PGA Championship) and who also finished third on the course (with a closing 62) and he’s a big price.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Sung-jae Im at 33/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 11th 1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 55/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 36th 1pt e.w. Danny Willett at 66/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 73rd
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