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The first of the 2019 World Golf Championship events and a return to Club de Golf Chapultepec for the Mexico Championship.
The host and the tournament replaced the Cadillac Championship played on Donald Trump’s Blue Monster Course at Doral in Florida two years ago.
It has proved a popular change with the players and fans watching around the world, as the course, a par-71 playing to 7,345-yards is a 1920s creation that provides an old-fashioned test of the players.
“This golf course definitely demands your attention,” said Rickie Fowler last year. “We don’t hit a lot of drivers. You’re able to hit a lot of different clubs off the tees.”
“It’s traditional golf, right?” said Jon Rahm, again last year. “It’s much like Colonial. I love this kind of golf course, similar to what I grew up on.”
Sergio Garcia backed that up, likening the challenge (tree-lined, tight, small greens) to Valderrama.
“It’s a very European layout,” confirmed Tommy Fleetwood. “Last year it reminded us of playing in Italy. It’s still different (though). It’s a long way above sea level and the greens are a bit more slopy than we’re used to.”
In 2017 Dustin Johnson chased down the 54-hole leader Justin Thomas to claimed a one-shot victory over Tommy Fleetwood.
Twelve months ago Thomas posted 62-64 at the weekend, overhauling the 18-, 36- and 54-hole leader Shubhankar Sharma to set a clubhouse target which only Phil Mickelson could match, but the veteran claimed victory in the play-off.
Angles to consider
1/ Short Game
The greens here are small and that perhaps explains why in the two events a total of 12 men have filled the places and ten of them ranked sixth or better in either Scrambling or Putting Average (all 12 had a rank of ninth or better). Last year’s winner Phil Mickelson ranked second and third respectively, the man he beat in the play-off Justin Thomas third and first, the 2017 winner Dustin Johnson 14th and fifth.
2/ Recent Form
Not just any recent form, but form playing tree-lined courses, on poa annua and/or at altitude. In 2017 Dustin Johnson won here off the back of a win at Riviera, Thomas was second and then fifth in the same events, runner-up Tommy Fleetwood had been third in Hong Kong, Jon Rahm had won at Torrey Pines and Justin Thomas at Waialae. Last year Phil Mickelson had prepped with second at Pebble Beach and sixth at Riviera, Thomas was ninth at the latter, Rafa Cabrera Bello had been second at Hong Kong, Kiradech Aphibarnrat had won at Lake Karrinyup and 54-hole leader Shubhankar Sharma won in Joburg. Also note another ten of the 12 place-fillers trend: in this case the ten all had a top three finish in their previous five starts (and one of the exceptions had a sixth in that spell).
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Phil Mickelson
In 2017 he led this tournament after 18 holes and hung around for tied seventh. Last year he went in the opposite direction, starting steadily and moving through the field to grab the win. In recent weeks he has surprised himself by finishing runner-up in Scottsdale, then had the glint in his eye all week at Pebble Beach as he claimed a three-shot win. He can be forgiven the tired first round last week after the win, especially as he played better throughout the week. The Course Compatibility tables ranks him as first in the field for Putting Average and whilst his Scrambling numbers are less impressive we know what he can do when the fancy takes him and he clearly likes this layout.
Louis Oosthuizen
A winner of the South African Open at altitude before Christmas and played superbly bar a strange third round in Abu Dhabi. Ranks fourth in the field for Scrambling on the Course Compatibility table. His course form is not great (T48th, T30th) but he did lead after a first round 64 last year.
Aaron Rai
An impressive winner of the Hong Kong Open last November, he also collected top tens at Royal Johannesburg and Valderrama in his first year on the European Tour and his first Challenge Tour win came at altitude in the Kenyan Open. A good performance in his WGC debut is far from out of the question.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson at 28/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 39th 1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 25th 0.25pt e.w. Aaron Rai at 250/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) plus 1.5pt top 10 at 18/1 (Unibet) 51st
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