|
What was the WGC Bridgestone Invitational has become the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. So no more Firestone (so beloved of Tiger Woods) and hello TPC Southwind, for so long a popular venue for the St Jude Classic which preceded the US Open. Firestone always favoured good drivers of the ball and the stats say that the long game is key at the new venue too. What is different is that whereas the old St Jude had something of a weaker and half-distracted field, this week’s players are 80% high quality (there remain some of the quirky WGC worldwide qualifiers) aiming at a big prize. That said, the new spot in the schedule, immediately after the Open, might impact on some. Unsurprisingly last week’s winner Shane Lowry (who won this event in 2015) has dropped out, but he’s far from alone. Tiger Woods and Rickie Fowler are also no-shows, for example. Others may be here in person, but not in spirit. Daniel Berger, back to back winner in 2016 and 2017, said of the course last year: “Bermuda greens and I know it’s Memphis but it reminds me a lot of Florida.” Dustin Johnson has won here twice, most recently last year (he has jokingly said that he, not Justin Thomas, is the true defending champion) and said ahead of the most recent win: “It’s a tough track. You’ve got to drive it really straight, you’ve got to hit good iron shots and you don’t have to shoot real low.
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green No less than seven of the last eight winners at TPC Southwind topped the rankings in this category. It’s a strong trend so why not follow it? 2/ Par 4 Performance Of the last five winners, Dustin Johnson ranked first, Daniel Berger (first time) second, Fabian Gomez third and Ben Crane fourth. When he defended the title Berger was 20th. 3/ Par 5 Performance Again the last five winners have strong rankings. Dustin Johnson and Fabian Gomez were second, Berger was third in both of his wins, Crane, the exception, was still 27th. 4/ Form in hot/humid conditions, on Bermuda, par-70s Okay, in a sense this is something of a vague, not to say wide, net, but Johnson was a past winner, as was Berger; in his first win Berger had thrived at the Honda, also in Mexico and Panama on the second tier; Gomez had been strong in Louisiana on the Web.com and later won at Waialae; Ben Crane won in Malaysia; Harris English went on to win at El Camaleon; Harrison Frazar was twice second in the Sony Open; Brian Gay won at El Camaleon.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas A two-time winner in Malaysia, victor at Waialae and at PGA National also; he ranks second for this season in SG: Tee to Green; and he’s first in the field for Par 5 Performance and fifth for Par 4 Performance. Even his form is strong: T9th at the Scottish Open and T11th in the Open (he’d never before made the cut in the championship). Rory McIlroy Both last Friday and this week the Northern Irishman has talked extensively of his experience when missing the cut last week at home. Immediate redemption makes a great tale but the stats back it up. He ranks tenth for Par 5 Performance in the field and fifth for Par 4 Performance. He tops the SG: Tee to Green numbers for the year and by some distance too. He’s also a past winner at PGA National. And he has course form: he was T7th in 2012 when a one shot leader at halfway. Webb Simpson The American ranks 18th for SG: Tee to Green for the season, first for Par 4 Performance, 13th for Par 5 Performance and he past results are interesting too: he was second in Tennessee on the Web.com, has been second in Louisiana, second at Harbour Town and third on the course too (in 2014). Tips: 1-2; +3.25pts 1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 14/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 12th 2pts win Rory McIlroy at 10/1 (Betfred) 4th 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 2nd
|
