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Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson. Those are the three winners of the WGC-Mexico Championship at Chapultepec, suggesting that this is the perfect set up for big-hitting Americans. That’s a long way from the truth as the par 71 in Mexico City effectively plays well under 7,000 yards due to altitude. In other words, the tree-lined track is open to attack from many different types of player and, the more you look at it and peruse the leaderboards from 2017, 2018 and 2019, the more it seems to favour European Tour players. A number of them have commented on how Chapultepec is more reminiscent of a European Tour venue, Jon Rahm offering this analysis last year: "I think the word is "traditional." You know, all these golf courses built 100 years ago. You have Chapultepec, Colonial; you have many other courses we play that were built a long time ago. And they weren't built for the golf that we play nowadays but somehow they hold up," said the Spaniard. "You've got tree-lined, narrow fairways, small greens, sloped greens. You have to think your way around the golf course and you have to play it really, really good. You truly can't miss around a place like this and then go and win a tournament, and that's why I love it so much. "It's the way I grew up playing golf. A lot of courses in Spain are rather traditional than the new American style of golf. It's a little bit different, it's more European, more what I'm used to, more what I like, so it's very refreshing. Rory McIlroy finished runner-up last year and heads the betting, with Rahm fourth best. Angles to consider 1/ Greens In Regulation Dustin Johnson ranked 1st for GIR (80.6) when lifting the trophy last year and he and runner-up Tommy Fleetwood were both in the top five for GIR in 2017. In 2018, six of the top nine on the final leaderboard were ranked in the top seven for GIR so strong recent iron play looks a great pointer. 2/ Scrambling The top two scramblers last year finished third (Kiradech Aphibarnrat) and first (Dustin Johnson), the top two scramblers in 2017 posted second (Tommy Fleetwood) and third (Jon Rahm) while the top three scramblers all made the top five in 2018: winner Phil Mickelson, runner-up Justin Thomas and Aphibarnat (T5) again so it’s a vital skill when greens are missed. 3/ Experience in Europe There’s definitely something more to this than an observation. In 2017 the next four home after winner Johnson were Tommy Fleetwood, Ross Fisher, Jon Rahm and Thomas Pieters. In 2018 Tyrrell Hatton and Rafa Cabrera Bello shared third place. And last year, Rory McIlroy was runner-up, with Paul Casey and Ian Poulter in a tie for third. All of the above cut their teeth on the European Tour. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected: Tommy Fleetwood Fleetwood’s ball-striking numbers have been superb for a long time. He’s ranked in the top 8 for GIR in each of his last eight tournaments and in his two starts this year (runner-up Abu Dhabi, T11 Dubai Desert Classic), he was 4thand 3rd respectively for greens hit. With excellent recent scrambling stats and course form of 2-14-19, the Englishman looks all set to challenge. Louis Oosthuizen Looking at figures for the 72-man field in events played in 2020, Oosthuizen ranks 3rd for greens in regulation and 9th in scrambling. Third at the last WGC event – the HSBC Champions in China – the South African boasts five top six finishes in his last seven starts while the other two were top 25s. He’s not quite put it altogether at Chapultepec but was the first-round leader in 2018 and shot middle rounds of 66-69 last year when tied 25th. Shane Lowry The Open champion was runner-up a the Hong Kong Open and after a missed cut when defending his Abu Dhabi crown he bounced back with T11 in the Dubai Desert Classic and T13 in the Saudi International. Again, referring to 2020 numbers, he’s 10th best in the field for both GIR and scrambling, finishing 6th and 3rd in those two categories in his last tournament (Saudi). He didn't play well here on his one past visit but it looks like the type of course which should suit him. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 18th 1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 40/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 51st 1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 29th
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