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The WGC-Dell Technologies Championship is the second of this year’s World Golf Championship events. In the first – the WGC-Workday Championship in Florida – six of the top 10 finishers were major winners. The cream really did rise to the top as Collin Morikawa walked off with the trophy. It would be a surprise to see that repeated in Austin, Texas this week. The very nature of match play combined with the format of this tournament means plenty of the top stars won’t be around for the weekend action when the 16 remaining players do battle in straight head-to-head knockout. Prior to that, there are three days of round robin group action, the tournament starting on a Wednesday to fit everything in. The 16 four-man groups are seeded. And in the four previous editions of this tournament, just 23 of the 64 top seeds (just under 36%) have won the group and made it into the last 16. Although that seems very low, at least the seedings do seem to work out. Looking at the other group winners, 25% came from seeds 17-32, 22% from seeds 33-48 and only 17% from seeds 49-64. The tournament wasn’t played last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic but there are four previous years of form to go at. Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design: a par 71 with just three par 5s that measures in at a shortish 7,108 yards. The greens are Bermuda and the rough is fairly minimal. The four winners since the event pitched up in Texas are Aussie Jason Day and a trio of Americans, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Kevin Kisner. Angles to consider 1/ Match Play experience and prowess There’s not a lot of chance to play this form of the game as a pro. So perhaps it’s notable that so many past winners of the event had honed their match play skills by contesting Ryder Cups/Presidents Cups. Since the event moved to Texas, seven of the eight finalists had previously played in one of those team events (yep, Kevin Kisner was on the 2017 Presidents Cup team). 2/ Texas form Looking at the four champions at Austin CC, Kisner had won at Colonial before reaching the last two finals of this event; Day, the 2016 champ, had won the Byron Nelson in the Lone Star State; DJ had posted eight top 10s in his previous 12 Texas starts prior to winning in 2017; Bubba was a former runner-up in Houston. Texas form counts for plenty. 3/ Current form This is maybe a little surprising to those who think form goes out of the window slightly due to the different format. On the contrary, it’s a big factor. Day and Johnson had both won on their previous start while Bubba had triumphed at Riviera just three starts earlier. Kisner had made the top 25 in each of his previous three events. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas As noted, two of the four winners at Austin had tasted victory in their previous event and Thomas ticks that box having taken glory at The Players Championship (also on a Pete Dye track). JT was the Americans’ top points scorer in the last Ryder Cup while two of his last three starts in Texas show a fourth in this event in 2018 and a top 10 in the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge. He looks the one to beat. Daniel Berger Berger, who played on the same 2017 Presidents Cup team as defending champion Kisner, has a win in one of his last three starts. That was his two-shot victory at Pebble Beach last month. He’s since added a tied ninth in the Players Championship. Texas? Well, it just so happens that he won on his last visit to the Lone Star State when walking off with the Charles Schwab Challenge in June. Several bookies are offering eight places so Berger reaching the quarter-finals would be sufficient to secure a profit on the event. Paul Casey The Ryder Cup ace has twice been a beaten finalist in this event (2009 and 2010 at Dove Mountain in Arizona). He likes the new course too having made the knockout stages in both 2017 and 2019. Between those two events he added a top 10 in the Dean & Deluca Invitational so he boasts the required good form in Texas. Right now, Casey is one of the golf’s in-form players after a run of 5-10-5-12-1-8 in his last six starts and, once again, the eight places on offer mean, with a careful staking plan, we obtain an overall profit on the event if Casey reaches the quarters. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt win Justin Thomas ‘enhanced win only’ at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet) 42nd 1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 18th 1.5pts e.w. Paul Casey at 22/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 28th
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