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Fans of World Golf Championship events – if they exist - best enjoy this week as much as they can. From next season, the number of WGCs will be cut from four to just two: the Dell Technologies Match Play and the HSBC Champions. This event – the FedEx St. Jude Invitational - had only gained WGC status two years ago after it was upgraded from a regular PGA Tour event. From next year it falls somewhere inbetween, becoming the FedEx St Jude Championship and kicking of the first of the three FedExCup Playoff events. Got all that?! The main thing to know for punters is that there is one constant: the course. TPC Southwind has been used since 1989 and usually provides a solid test. Although Dustin Johnson romped to a six-shot victory when shooting -19 in 2018, the winning scores between 2012 and 2018 were between -9 and -13 inclusive. In the two WGCs at Southwind, Brooks Koepka triumphed with -16 in 2019 while Justin Thomas fired -13 to win last year. Fit the two tournaments here together and Americans have won nine of the last 10 events played at TPC Southwind. The greens are Bermuda and par is 70, aligning the course with several others on the calendar. With Jon Rahm absent, Koepka heads the betting. Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Scoring As with many par 70s, Par 4 scoring proves to be pivotal: it’s logical as there are 12 rather than the standard 10. Johnson and Koepka both ranked 1st for the Par 4s when winning here in 2018 and 2019 respectively and Thomas was 2nd last year, playing them in 6-under compared to being 4-under for the two Par 5s. 2/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green Thomas was superb in this category last year, gaining over 13 strokes on the field and ranking 1st. The majority of the winners here have done the same, showing it’s what you do before reaching the green that counts for most. Thomas actually lost strokes with the putter but it didn’t stop him. 3/ Course form Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger are both two-time course winners while Koepka has a win and two seconds. Berger was runner-up again in 2020. These are the most obvious examples but there is plenty of other evidence showing that course form counts for plenty. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Harris English English is looking to win at TPC Southwind for a second time after taking victory on debut in 2013 while he added a 10th in 2017, his penultimate visit to the course. He’s finished third at the US Open and won the Travelers on his last two starts in America and ranked 9th and 3rd for SG: Tee To Green in those events, gaining over eight strokes on the field for TTG each time. He’s in the top 25% for Par 4 Scoring this season. Abraham Ancer The Mexican is still searching for a first win but he’s been racking up the top 10s and 20s this season. That includes fourth in the Travelers and 14th at the Olympics in two of his last three starts. Ancer was 18th on his course debut in 2016 and finished fast (65-66) to make the top 15 last year. He ranks tied 2nd for Par 4 Performance this season and 31st SG: Tee To Green. Daniel Berger With two wins and a second in four starts at TPC Southwind, many will have Berger as an auto-bet this week. It’s hard to disagree. Along with that stellar course record, he’s built his confidence even further with top eights in the last two majors. A par 70 with Bermuda grass is right up his street and he ranks 29th Tee To Green this season and 9th for Par 4s. A second win of the season beckons for the Pebble Beach champ. Tips 3-0; +52.25pts 1pt e.w. Harris English at 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th 0.75pts e.w. Abraham Ancer at 45/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 1st 1.25pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 22/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 5th
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