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Tipster: Andy
Hong Kong Open
Pre Event Trades:
Sell Simon Yates Finishing Position at 33 at either Spreadex or IG
for 0.5 pts. MU 50
Yates has a current form record of 6 top 20's in a row in the last few
weeks on this tour. His stats for this event are average but current form
is always worth more than course form when both are readily available.
Yates tends to play only on this tour and he does have an excellent record.
The biggest recommendation for this bet however is Yates' record in
achieving 54% finishes in the top 25 on this tour. Given that stat
and his current form a more realistic price would be a few points less.
Sell Thaworn Wiratchant Finishing Position at 38 at Sports Spread for
0.5 pts. MU 50
Wiratchant, like Yates, is on fire. His last 10 events have produced 7
top 10s, 2 further top 25's with his worst result being 47th. Like Yates,
he has average course form and is probably the reason for such a high
quote. His average FP in three events in November is 11 so that confirms
his current well-being and is a very confident trade at the price.
Post Round 1 Trades:
Sell Thomas Bjorn on the 10 man Index at 8 with IG Index for 0.5 pts.
MU 20
Bjorn is being opposed as he has never really took on the Asian PGA Tour
much, playing twice in the last 5 years finishing 48th and missing the cut
on the only other visit. Today he had a 69 which placed him well down the
list of "big name" players, with 6 players all having at least a
stroke on him so far. If he falls outwith the top 4 of these we collect the
full available profit At this stage whilst tied 7th, 8 seems a fair price
to trade at. There is various options to oppose Bjorn. We could have sold
him at 9 on the leaderboard indices. However, the leaderboard pays out more
per position and pays down to 8th place. As the leaderboard will
probably be filled with a good few of the players in IG's select list it is
better to play here needing only 4 to perform better. We could have sold
him at 10 with other firms, but IG have Zhang in their list who is -3 and
is a better addition to the list than Spence or Sandelin who are elsewhere
but both +1.
Buy Padraig Harrington over Darren Clarke on a 72 Hole Match Bet at
0.6 with Spreadex for 1 pt. MU 4
Harrington, to me, was slight favourite over Clarke as he had more
Asian PGA Tour experience. With a one stroke lead already i was surprised a
little to see you could buy at 0.6 at both Spreadex and Cantor Sport. Clarke
effectively has to beat Harrington over the last 54 Holes for this to lose
and i think Harrington is more likely to increase it a little than go back.
Post Round 2 Trades
Sell Nick Faldo over Jamie Spence on a 72 Hole Match Bet at 1.5 with
Sporting Index for 1 pt. MU 9
Spence is one ahead at the half way point but Sporting have deemed Faldo
favourite by some way. Although Faldo is a better player there were signs
today in the TV coverage that he was really struggling on the greens. He
had 8 bogeys in his round mixed with a few birdies and was not the
methodical Faldo of old. Faldo's great advantage has always been being
steady but not spectacular, but it seems difficult for him to be so in
these difficult to read greens.
Buy Fredrik Jacobson over Thomas Bjorn on a 72 Hole Match Bet at 7.5
with IG Index for 1 pt. MU 0
The reasons for opposing Bjorn are outlined above. The reasons for
supporting Jacobsen are plenty, he is handily placed to reel in the rookie,
McEvoy in R3/4. He also is the defending champion and has proved himself
over the course. Add in the confidence of being the Volvo Master champion,
achieved a few weeks ago, means that giving up 0.5 from the current status
of Jacobsen 7 ahead is good value. He is higher priced elsewhere.
(Note: the stakes have been corrected to fall in
line with the established practice of 1pt on match bets and 0.5pts on
leaderboard indices and finishing positions)
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